STRATFOR: Geopolitical Diary: Friday, July 16, 2004

STRATFOR ^ | July 16, 2004

[Axion]

Khaled bin Audah bin Mohammed al-Harbi, the Osama bin Laden associate who surrendered to the Saudi regime on July 13, apparently was forced to do so by the Iranian government. The Saudi-owned, London-based al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper reported Thursday that there had been a struggle in Tehran over whether to turn him over to the Saudis. Iranian President Mohammed Khatami and the head of Iranian intelligence wanted to hand him over, but were blocked by Iran's Islamic Republican Guard. Following talks between Saudi Justice Minister Abdullah al-Sheikh and Ayatollah Mahmud Hashimi-Shahrudi, who heads Iran's judiciary, the Republican Guard changed its position, and al Harbi was forced to surrender to the Saudis.

We tend to believe the newspaper's assertion that the Iranians handed al-Harbi over. We tend to discount any discussions of internal Iranian struggles any longer -- certainly none that pit reformers against conservatives. Iranian leaders have gotten the "good cop-bad cop" routine down to a science: They decide to do what they want, and the dramas they like to stage to extract maximum benefit need to be discounted until they are proven to have some substance.

There are two substantial bits of information in this article that we do trust: First, that al-Harbi was in Iran and under the protection of the Republican Guard, the mainstay of the Iranian regime; and second, that he was turned over to the Saudis by Tehran. The first fact, that he was in Iran, meshes with our analysis since April that the Iranians have shifted their position on al Qaeda and are now once again developing relationships with the network. A relationship between Shiite Iran and Sunni al Qaeda is not as easy to credit as might appear: There is much distrust and bad blood between the two. Still, following what the Iranians regarded as an abandonment of U.S. commitments to them over the future Iraqi regime in April, Iran needed as many levers against the United States as it could find. It would be very interesting to know just how long al-Harbi was in the country. Unfortunately, we don't, but we do know now that he was there.

The second fact -- that he was forcibly turned over to the Saudis -- is equally significant, if somewhat more opaque.

On first glance, we are tempted to say that back-channel negotiations between the United States and Iran are bearing fruit. This runs counter to reports Thursday that Muqtada al-Sadr, the Iraqi Shiite leader, was regrouping and rearming his forces with the aid and encouragement of Iran. Still, rearming al-Sadr could have been Iran's most recent policy, not yet factored into this shift.

There is, however, another explanation. Saudi Arabia and Iran are longtime rivals in the Persian Gulf and in the world oil markets. The Saudis are now in trouble and are reaching out to neighbors for help. Iran might not be particularly friendly to the Saudis, but if there ever was a time for the Iranians to put it to the Saudis, this is it. Given the rivalry, there is a range of things that Tehran might want that the Saudis normally would not be interested in giving it. But these are not normal times for the Saudis, and they might well have been prepared to bargain on many things -- from putting pressure on the United States on behalf of Iran to swapping OPEC oil quotas.

This would explain Tehran's continued hostility toward Washington, while cooperation with Riyadh seems to be progressing. It would also indicate a major complication for the United States: A premature accommodation between Tehran and Riyadh would be the last thing the United States would want, since it would leave the U.S. problem in Iraq unsolved. However, the Saudis are not particularly interested in solving U.S. problems at the moment, and the Iranians also are looking to make things difficult.

Unless this was part of U.S.-Iranian negotiations -- which we tend to doubt, although not absolutely reject -- the Saudis and Iranians are reaching out to each other, which is not the best news that Washington could hear.

Copyrights 2004 - Strategic Forecasting, Inc. All rights reserved.