Posted on 09/02/2004 1:18:45 PM PDT by Destro
ANALYSIS-Putin might risk bloody end to school siege
02 Sep 2004 15:14:00 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Douglas Busvine
MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday the safety of 350 hostages held in a Russian school was paramount, but analysts warned he might order special forces to storm the building and risk a repeat of past bloodbaths.
The history of Russian operations to free hostages in recent years is a grim one, with hundreds of innocents killed.
But attempts to negotiate with the captors, believed to be Chechen separatist militants, could make a mockery of Putin's strategy of using force to impose order in the Caucasus region of southern Russia, security analysts said.
"If the situation develops in a way that threatens the lives of hostages... then storming is the only possibility," said Boris Makarenko, a security analyst at the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow.
And any casualties among the many children held at School No.1 in Beslan, North Ossetia, are likely to inflame the seething, multi-ethnic Caucasus further, analysts warn.
Twenty-six women and children were freed in Beslan on Thursday.
But analysts noted that children were also freed in the Moscow theatre siege of October 2002 before Putin, who had earlier called for talks, ordered special forces to storm the building.
Of 700 hostages, 129 died from the effects of a knock-out gas used in the operation. All 41 Chechen captors were killed.
In a disastrous operation to end the Budennovsk hospital siege of 1995, more than 100 hostages died before their captors won safe passage. In Pervomaiskoye in 1996, there were more hostage deaths, and many guerrillas escaped a military dragnet.
"The Russians will assault the school without a doubt, they have done it in every single case," said Adam Dolnik, a Singapore-based security analyst and co-author of a detailed study of the Moscow theatre siege.
"They will likely stall for time in order to get enough intelligence about the location, they will search for ways in and they will prepare a plan. I would expect the assault within the next two days, if history is anything to go by."
Analysts said Wednesday's attack by a heavily-armed gang on the school was highly professional, and past experience shows that the gym where the hostages are held is likely to be mined.
REGIONAL RISKS
The captors chose their target well. North Ossetia has been peaceful since a conflict in the early 1990s with neighbouring Ingushetia, which borders Chechnya, and any deaths of local children could provoke fresh hostilities.
"These are Ossetian kids. The reaction of Ossetians may be extremely dangerous," said Alexei Malashenko, a security analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Moscow.
"We could be on the eve of the next war."
According to news reports, the captors have demanded the release of comrades captured in a raid on Ingushetia in June.
Analysts say that demand would be impossible for Putin to concede, leaving confidence-building measures such as offering to supply water, food and medicine as the only avenue for talks.
"It's almost impossible for him to give in to any of these demands -- but there are the lives of children at stake," said Thomas de Waal, a Chechnya expert at the Institute for War and Peace Reporting in London.
"There will be some kind of negotiation over the everyday stuff -- food, medicines and so on. Beyond that I don't see much to talk about."
Paul Wilkinson, of the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at Scotland's St Andrews University, said he hoped Putin would moderate his position -- however difficult that might be.
"President Putin came to office on a very tough position on terrorism and has capitalised on that ever since. The recent spate of attacks has put this policy to the test," he said.
"How can one say the policy of firm military response is working?" he added, saying Putin should open a peace dialogue with moderate Chechens and call for international mediation. (Additional reporting by Mark Trevelyan, Security Correspondent, in Berlin)
I agree. We can all pray for the safety of the children. I say give them whatever they want - get the children to safety then go after them with everything you have. This is what you call being between a rock and a hard place.
Yup.
It was reported today that the President of Osetia had offered to release 50 of the terrorist's cohorts today but it was turned down. source: gazeta.ru
President of Osetia, Alexander Dzasohov, said that the terrorists were offered the freedom of 50 of their cohorts who were seized back in June. A deal was almost made, but at the last moment the terrorists backed down.
Amen
Negotiation in hostage situations is okay. In fact, the longer you negotiate, the more you wear the terrorists down.
Now, if you meant to say that you don't capitulate to terrorists or you will get more terrorism, I agree 100%.
ping
Who was that Tsar at that time Destro
Peter the Great or Catherine the Great
At first I thought maybe the terrorists had doused their clothes in something flammable, but a more commonplace explanation is that these children were toddlers in diapers or very young children who soiled themselves because the terrorists wouldn't allow them to use the bathroom.
Amen.
Alouette I hear there are FEMALE Terrorists in this gang I don't get why they send young toddler in the cold in Russia
I don't get that
We are dealing with Chechen trash here
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