Al-Zawahiri: Tapes and Intentions

Al Jazeera television aired a sneak preview of a videotaped message from deputy al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri on Sept. 9. Though little is known now about the contents of the tape, the statement could be meant to coincide with the bombing outside the Australian Embassy earlier in the day -- and/or to threaten additional attacks. Neither al-Zawahiri nor his boss, Osama bin Laden, issues tapes frivolously.

Qatar-based Al Jazeera television was planning to air the complete footage of a videotaped message from Al Qaeda's No. 2 man, Ayman al-Zawahiri, on Sept. 9.

It seems apparent al Qaeda seeks to convey such an important message that it not only has risked detection by sending a videotape, but also has broken a long period of silence in order to do so.

Regardless of the message and/or its correlation to any recent or future attacks, a statement from either of the top two leaders of the global jihadist network must be taken seriously.

By issuing even an audiotaped message, al Qaeda leaders risk detection in that they leave a certain number of clues that security and intelligence agencies can possibly trace back to them. The risk is even greater with a videotaped message, which is why al Qaeda has not issued an actual video since the network was ousted from Afghanistan -- and has mostly limited its communiques to audiotapes.

The medium of this message -- and its timing -- raises important questions about al-Zawahiri's intentions.

Two previous al-Zawahiri messages were followed by bombings in Indonesia. Could the Sept. 9 message, then, be connected to the bombing of the Australian Embassy in Jakarta earlier in the day? Based on the timing of previous audio and video messages from al-Zawahiri, it can be assumed this was either issued to coincide with the Australian Embassy bombing -- or to threaten imminent attacks.

One audiotaped statement from al-Zawahiri surfaced Oct. 8, 2002, and advised Americans to leave Palestine, the Arabian Peninsula and all "Muslim lands." Four days later, the Bali bombing occurred.

Al-Zawahiri's voice was heard on another audiotape released Aug. 3, 2003, which threatened to take "revenge" on the United States if it executed any prisoners being held at Guantanamo Bay. On Aug. 5, 2003, the Jakarta Marriott suicide bombing occurred.

Al-Zawahiri appeared in a tape aired Sept. 10, 2003 -- the eve of the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States. Although the tape showed him and bin Laden strolling in a mountainous terrain, and thus was technically a video -- the message it contained came via an audio voice-over. In it, al-Zawahiri's voice threatened U.S. soldiers in Iraq, exhorting Muslim fighters to send them home in coffins. On Sept. 29, 2003, al-Zawahiri issued an audiotape calling for the overthrow of Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's regime. Slightly fewer than three months later, two assassination attempts were made against Musharraf within a span of 11 days.

The lag between the call for violence against Musharraf and the attempts against his life can be explained: Al Qaeda had maintained a hands-off policy toward the Pakistani government because of the network's close ties to state military and intelligence apparatuses. Once that policy was reversed, it took militants a while to gear up for the assassination attempts.

Al-Zawahiri purportedly was last heard from June 11, when Al Arabiya television aired an audiotape believed to contain his voice. The speaker said a U.S. plan for reform in the Middle East was actually a bid to replace Arab leaders.

The network is aiming to achieve something important with this latest videotape, and is willing to break a long period of silence -- and risk detection -- by sending it.

Ahmed Shah Massoud
... Ahmed Shah Massoud (c. 1953 - September 9, 2001)

Ahmed Shah Massoud
Ahmed Shah Massoud (c. 1953 - September 9, 2001) (variant transliterations include Ahmad, Masood, etc.) was an Afghani military leader who played a leading role in driving the Soviet army out of Afghanistan, earning him the nickname the Lion of Panjshir. In the early 1990s he became Defence Minister under President Burhanuddin Rabbani. Following the collapse of Rabbani's government and the rise of the Taliban, Massoud became the military leader of the Northern Alliance, a coalition of various Afghani opposition groups in a prolonged civil war. As the Taliban established control over most of Afghanistan, Massoud's forces were increasingly forced into the mountainous areas of the north, where they controlled some 10% of Afghanistan's territory and perhaps 30% of its population.

Massoud was the victim of a suicide attack which occurred at Khvajeh Ba Odin on September 9, 2001, two days before the September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attack in the United States, a timing considered significant by some commentators. The attackers were two Arabs who claimed to be Belgians originally from Morocco. However their passports turned out to be stolen. According to some accounts they were posing as journalists, perhaps intending to attack several Northern Alliance council members simultaneously. They set off a bomb hidden in either a video camera or a belt worn by one of the attackers. It appears that Massoud died within 30 minutes, although his death was denied until September 13. The explosion also killed Mohammed Asim Suhail, a Northern Alliance official, while Mohammad Fahim Dashti and Massoud Khalili were injured. One of the attackers was killed by the explosion and the other was shot while trying to escape.

The French secret service revealed October 16, 2003 that the camera used by Massoud's assassins had been stolen in December 2000 Grenoble, France from a photo-journalist, Jean-Pierre Vincendet, who was then working on a story on that city's Christmas store window displays. By tracing the serial number that appeared in the camera, the FBI was able to determine Vincendet as the original owner. The French secret serve and the FBI then began working on tracing the route that the camera took between the time it was taken from Vincendet and the Massoud assassination.

Massoud is the subject of Ken Follett's Lay Down With Lions, a novel about the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

See also: History of Afghanistan since 1992

External links

* http://www.myafghan.com/news.asp?id=191584756
* http://www.afgha.com/?af=who&op=read&id=52

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