Maryland Poll: Bush 48% Kerry 48%

Survey USA ^ | 20 Sept 2004

[demlosers]

Presidential poll, MD

9/20/2004

Kerry (D) 48%
Bush (R)48%
Other/Undecided 4%

Data Collected 9/17/04 - 9/19/04
Geography State of Maryland
Sample Population 598 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 4.1%
Client WMAR-TV Baltimore

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MD040920president.pdf

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Correct. Those are registration numbers. Not all those who registered are going to turn out to vote...

So I went and checked the exit poll data for 2000.

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/2000vote/general/md_epollgridPres.html

The 2000 Exit Poll data had the breakdown as follows:

50% Democrat
28% Republican
21% Independent

This poll had it
45% Democrat
35% Republican
20% Independent

It makes sense for the self-identified's numbers to be higher since the Pubblies recently held their convention. As such, a 7% tilt from the 2000 exit poll numbers is totally within the realm of possibility.

I find the SUSA's polling methodology usually credible. I am just anticipating what the Dims will most likely argue.

[GreyWolf]

I thought I was in Baltimore, but I must be in the Twilight Zone. Of course, the poll does not take into consideration the Maryland zombie voters who always rise up at midnight on election eve.

[SamAdams76]

Is Spiro Agnew still around or has he already punched his ticket to paradise? I'll never forget his "nattering nabobs of negativism" quote. Still as true today as it was back then.

[freedom1st]

As Keith Jackson might say "Ho Nellie" we've got a horserace.

[Congressman Billybob]

As a four decade resident of Maryland who moved to a more rational political environment, I submit that this survey makes one thing clear. If Maryland is in play, John Kerry is not. If this result is duplicated in other polls on Maryland, Kerry is headed for Dukakisville. He might as well retreat to the Fortress of the Left, which consists of Massachusetts and the District of Columbia. LOL.

<p<Congressman Billybob

[Congressman Billybob]

When you know Maryland politics, as I do, you know a dirty little secret about registration there. A significant number of Republicans register as Democrats so they get to vote in the Democrat primaries. Since the ultimate winner in Maryland ordinarily comes out of the Democrat primary, that's the only REAL vote to cast in most elections.

That "cross-over" registration applies to maybe 10% of the Maryland electorate. I know, I was one of them for a few years. If the poll asked people "How do you identify yourself?" rather than "How are you registered?", the party split is about right.

Congressman Billybob

[cookcounty]

....And the Big Bang hasn't even happened yet!!

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

I have a feeling that is a phenomenon throughout the liberal North East, especially in places like New YOrk City.

It seems like Mason-Dixon is one of the few pollsters that asks that question properly.

[memcindoe]

You're absolutely right about the Pubbies who register as Dems - I did it myself years ago.

I've been wondering since the spring if this state could end up in play this time around, since Bob Ehrlich has been a very popular Gov, and Martin O'Malley, Baltimore's Dem Mayor, has not been very effective. I don't think there's any question that Mike Steele has been drawing a lot of interest from the black voters as well. To me, that all adds up to Maryland being a battle-ground after all, though I won't hold my breath. I too remember the Sauerbrey election...

[JohnnyZ]

What does it mean by "military/vet"? No way is half of any state's population made up of veterans.

I think it means military or veteran FAMILY or household -- I assume they count people whose kids are military. Not really sure how they define it tho.

[Tolik]

Note that many Marylanders remained registered democrats so they can have a say in the primary elections: an important nuance in the one party state.

[Dan from Michigan]

I have to guess this is an outlier.

I can't see a DC Beltway insider doing that bad in Maryland with Montgomery, Prince George, and Baltimore City.

[nicollo]

Dang. Here I thought I was to be the sole vote for W in Montgomery Co. Oh well. Between the two of us, we have them surrounded, eh.

Nothing to do but attack in all directions. Go get 'em brother!

[nicollo]

... places like New YOrk City.

From my private poll of one NYC resident who had a building fall on her a couple years back, Dubya's her man.

She ain't alone.

[Clump]

Keep on working hard. This would be huge!!

[MCH]

When you know Maryland politics, as I do, you know a dirty little secret about registration there. A significant number of Republicans register as Democrats so they get to vote in the Democrat primaries.

Yep. I know lots of 'em, including my sister. Weighting polls in MD by party registration would be totally invalid.

On another note, I just heard on the radio on the way home today that a judge overturned an earlier decision to keep Nader off the ballot in MD. He's now ON the ballot. This might help tip the balance - giving the ultra-libs who live here in MD a chance to vote their conscience and register an anti-sKerry protest vote, especially if they're convinced sKerry is going to lose anyway.

MD has been trending more Repub lately, and it did go for Bush I in '88. MD for Bush II would not surprise me.

[jackbill]

Believe me, as a resident of Maryland for 67 of my 73 years, there is no way in hell that Bush is tied with Kerry in Maryland. The poll must have been taken outside the government worker/welfare recipient/minority population in the axis from Baltimore City to the northern suburbs of DC.

[snarkytart]

I agree!

If MD goes for dubya I will be in a coma from shock for a week.

I live in a Baltimore Co, just moved from Howard Co.
The axis of evil in MD(Baltimore City, Mont.County & PG County)is too much for a Republican to overcome.....usually!

[NeoCaveman]

Holy moley!

[crushelits]

That's right.

They lived in DC, they got educated, raised a traditional family they drive nice cars have nice homes and many of them live in PG county.