Maryland Poll: Bush 48% Kerry 48%

Survey USA ^ | 20 Sept 2004

[demlosers]

Presidential poll, MD

9/20/2004

Kerry (D) 48%
Bush (R)48%
Other/Undecided 4%

Data Collected 9/17/04 - 9/19/04
Geography State of Maryland
Sample Population 598 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 4.1%
Client WMAR-TV Baltimore

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/MD040920president.pdf

[Starboard]

Maryland is chock full of Democrats with a sizeable population of federal employees. The state house is dominated by Democrats. However, Maryland did elect a Republican governor last time around when Bob Erlich defeated Kathline Kennedy (yes, she's in the family) Townsend.

[The Hound Passer]

I'm incredibly skeptical about this, but I'll say this...If the exit polls report Bush winning their on Nov 2 after the polls close at 8pm then Kerry might as well give his concession speech at 8:01. Of course he won't...he'll say Diebold hijacked the election instead.

[ko_kyi]

They may attribute it to government programs, but the reason they are in MD and not DC anymore is the disaster that DC became under liberal democratic home rule.

[Boss_Jim_Gettys]

"Holy crap!"

Amazing, but who could have imagined we'd get a Republican governor in Maryland? I guess running an exceptionally weak piece o'crap candidate, even with the big (D) after the name, just ain't enough anymore. If only we could decommission our crappy senators.

[Mr. Silverback]

Whoa!

Even if this poll is off, and Bush is trailing, this still forces Kerry to spend money and time in a state Gore won handily in 2000.

I'm trying not to be overconfident, but I'm starting to wonder if the hemorrahge can be stopped. True, the Iraq thing is Kerry's way to get back on domestic issues eventually, but he has so little credibility on it that he will probably only cement his rep as a flip-flopper.

[Republic If You Can Keep It]

I don't beleive it and I live here

Me neither......& so do I!

Trust me, if Bush carries Md. it will be his 40th state.

This poll is fantastic news, hon!

[Republic If You Can Keep It]

I don't beleive it and I live here

Me neither......& so do I!

Trust me, if Bush carries Md. it will be his 40th state.

This poll is fantastic news, hon!

[GunnyB]

That the Socialist Republic of Maryland is even this close is fantastic! Heck, even if it's a 2-3 point race it's better than the blowouts for the dims that occurred over the years.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Do you know what district he lives in? It seems that a House seat may be more realistic then a Senate seat."

---

I believe Steele still lives in the DC suburbs, either in Montco or PG County. Suffice it to say, any of the 3 congressional districts in that area would be much more difficult for him to win than it would a statewide race. If Senator Sarbanes retires in 2006, as it is speculated, I think Lt. Gov. Steele would have a good chance of winning the Senate election, especially with Ehrlich running for reelection helping bring out the GOP vote in the Baltco suburbs. And since former Baltimore Congressman and current NAACP Chairman Kweisi Mfume is contemplating running for the Senate if Sarbanes retires, Steele may have a rather easy general election assuming that Mfume can get black Democrats to vote for him in the primary (blacks are probably close to 40% of the Democrat primary electorate in MD, and there is no run-off in the state).

[Heff]

Last months "Kerry" strongholds are now becoming battleground states...Team Bush has to be careful and not take their eye off what's important.

I could see someone getting the idea of taking Bush to NY, MD, NJ and CA to force Kerry to re-invest in what were his very strong states, which takes us out of those important battlegrounds states of OH, FL, PA and so on.

Am I off base here???

[BladeLWS]

YEEEOOWWWW!!!! If it really is like that THAT IS OUTSTANDING!!!!!!! Hopefully electoral-vote.com will have this in the AM!

[Dave278]

"You still have a lot of old-time Democrats at the state and local level."

One must remember that the dead democrats still vote in most every state. ;)

[zbigreddogz]

Interesting. So you think Mfume is too radical to win statewide?

[Renfield]

"...WE have been working in Churches, libraries to register new vote for the republican cause.."

I'm workin' the precinct here in Calvert County. This poll is great...I got 3 volunteers signed up tonight, and I still have plenty of prospects to call. I've never seen the party so energized here, and we're very well organized, too. I don't think the dems can match us.

At the primary last spring, at one point we had 9 republican volunteers around the table in front of the polling station, and there was only one dem...and her party organization failed to bring her any literature to hand out. She was so lonely she started hanging out with us.

[stands2reason]

Is there any state that's NOT a battleground state now, except for Rhode Island and Vermont?

Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Wyoming, Alaska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Montana, Idaho ----

Oh, you mean pro-Kerry safe states? Hmmmm.

Illinois. Massachusetts. Hawaii, maybe? Or Delaware?

[BladeLWS]

I think the dems here in MD have let up their guard for far to long, and if they loose MD this close to the election they have no time to shift resources to here.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"According to the March 2000 figures the breakdown is as follows (note numbers = 101.1% because of rounding):

55.8% D
29.9% R
14.4% I/O"

---

I assume that those numbers are for party registration, not for party identification (which was likely the poll question). And even if the poll question referred to party registration, this is a likely voter poll, and registered Republicans in MD are much more likely to vote than registered Democrats (especially since motor voter has resulted in just about every citizen 18 and over being a registered voter).

It would be interested to see exit polling date for the 2002 MD elections to see what is the party breakdown for actual voters in the state.

[dakine]

Exactly, the reason Ehrlich won is because Glendening was such a cad, and KKT was a joke...

[midftfan]

Maryland, Illinois, and New York are posting some shocking polling numbers for Kerry. Bush probably won't win these states, but it points up the fact that Kerry hasn't nailed down his base yet. If he's forced to pour ads and spend time in these states it's an indication that Bush will not merely win but win in landslide proportions. These shocking poll numbers point out that most Americans don't feel comfortable putting an indecisive John Kerry into the White House.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"So you think Mfume is too radical to win statewide?"

---

I would have to assume so. His voting record in Congress was 100% liberal, and I find it hard to believe that moderate-to-conservative Democrats in Southern MD, the Eastern Shore and the Panhandle would vote for the Chairman of the NAACP (especially with a name like Kweisi Mfume).

But I bet you that white Democrats in MD will try to derail an Mfume statewide candidacy, just like they have discouraged candidacies by every other black Democrat who dared suggest running outside of a majority-black district.