Posted on 10/13/2004 4:07:26 PM PDT by Perdogg
The spin on polls has got a lot of people getting nervous. It’s not necessary.
First off, step away from the Daily Tracking Polls. They have a much smaller base of respondents than normal polls, they do not release detailed internals, and they are no more reliable than some guy you meet at the grocery. Remember to check out what drives the numbers, and if the poll won’t say, then it’s unreliable by definition.
Now, if you want to see reasons why Bush is DEFINITELY going to win, consider this:
Basically, it comes down to three factors; Key Issues, Strength-of-Support, and Turnout.
First, Key Issues. There’s a lot of chatter, but over the past two years, people have clearly said over and over they really only wonder about three big issues: The Economy, Iraq, and the War on Terror. The Economy was weak last year, but has been steadily growing for a long time. Notice how the Democrats have had to progressively back off their talk about Recession, then about no new jobs, then they finally resorted to statistics, trying to get people to stop thinking things are good. That’s not a winning hand. Next, things in Iraq have really settled down since May, with the Handover of Sovereignty and the coming elections, and the news that the Sadr Militia is disbanding. Then there’s Terrorism. Kerry somehow still doesn’t get it, to the point that he talks about the #1 issue with voters, as a “nuisance“. All of these work to Bush’s advantage.
Now, about Strength-of-Support. Even when Kerry had a lead this summer, I noticed that his internals showed his voters weren’t hard-core, but soft, while the President’s support has always been concentrated, very focused. Kerry never got around to specifics in his plans, and his attacks on Bush ran only on emotion; even with all the attention, there was never a scrap of substance to them, so Kerry also became seen as a man attacking a strong President. Strong enough, that even after a poor first debate, Bush was seen as a more decisive leader, and a better man in a crisis. That keeps things going in the same direction.
Then there’s Turnout. A lot of people talk about the 48-60% turnout, but few people pay attention to what causes the dropoff. In the end, the fact is that most people don’t think much about elections, especially since most voters only show up for Presidential and Congressional elections. It’s not routine, it means getting registered, then remembering to find out where and when to vote, and if you don’t vote early (most people don’t), then you have to remember to make extra time on one day to go to a place you have likely not been before. Basically, people only turn out in big numbers when they are really excited by a candidate, or they are really mad at his opponent. Simply put, Kerry is not exciting to very many people, but Dubya is, and more, Kerry has said the same things for so long, it doesn’t really charge people up. But the attacks on Bush, especially the lies told, have revved up the Bush people.
Put it all together, and yes, I’m comfortable with the idea that President will put up big numbers. Actually, President Bush had the chance for some really big numbers, but he is not as eloquent as Reagan, and the media has slammed him pretty good. But with a good economy and a decent foreign policy, 55% PV is not unreasonable.
Don’t get lazy or over-confident, but don’t give yourself an ulcer, either. You knew the MSM was going to make noise, didn’t you?
DJ Drummond has great analysis. I highly recommend him.
he fails to mention the biggest factor in kerry's favor: Massive vote fraud.
Totally agree.
Fraud works in close elections, this one will not be close enough for it to be a factor.
From your lips to GOD'S ears. Thanks for encouraging news in an otherwise blah day.
bookmarked for reading over and over and......
(CHHHHKGKGKGK!) Step a-WAY from the polls (CHHHHHGKGKGKGK!)
I know it's interesting to post the polls, and interesting to see them, but it gets some people on here too riled up sometimes, and too downbeat.
Good article, with some very good points. Thanks for posting.
P.S. - It also gives DUers who lurk here the chance to go back to their slime-hole blogs and post that the FReepers are demoralized.
The fraud thing has me nervous. There's going to be more than usual. Praying for a landslide!!
"the biggest factor in kerry's favor: Massive vote fraud.'
You got that right! It's the most underplayed aspect of this entire election.
The Dims have convinced themselves that despite their efforts in 2000, to steal the election, Bush stole it better!
They're not leaving anything to 'chance' this time, and are doubling, if not tripling their efforts at voter fraud.
If Kerry does 'win', you can bet there will be a complete stonewall in the MSM, to letting any report on the voter fraud, surface!
Exactly! Some of these polls are created for the sole purpose of depressing Bush supporters. Shame on us for taking the bait.
I generally agree with this assessment, and highly doubt that the Dems can pull off a large enough vote fraud to steal this election.
Relax? is not even in my vocabulary until after this election from hell is over. A Kerry win means he will have a chance to appoint and even get thru congress some lib supremes that could do alot of damage to our country. IT also would give the left reason to celebrate the clout of the Rathers and left wing radical puke faced lib media...not to mention the whoppi, Michael Moore, Streisand, DixieTwits, ad nausem crowd.
Nice. I will try to read this everyday for the rest of the campaign.
If you can not say anything depressing, please don't say anything at all. It scares the doom & gloomers. And shut the door softly on your way out..;)
I milwaukee, the mayor and city election commission requested 938,000 ballots for the coming election.
The city has 382,000 registered voters. Last time roughly less than 250,000 people voted.
So they want almost 3 ballots for every voter.
I just hope bush opens a big lead that vote fraud can't beat.
I have a feeling that voter fraud will be less of problem than they say. I actually think that voter turnout for Democrats will be way down.
I have no proof of this, but Kerry supporters I talk to really do not like him, and are voting against Bush, because they think they hate him. Most likely like a spoiled child hates a strict parent. They really have no desire to vigorously support Kerry, and probably do not care. This turnout and new registration is largely hype in my opinion.
So pray for widespread rain November 2, then Bush will win by a landslide.
I have a feeling that voter fraud will be less of problem than they say. I actually think that voter turnout for Democrats will be way down.
I have no proof of this, but Kerry supporters I talk to really do not like him. They hate Bush. They really have no desire to vigorously support Kerry, and probably do not care. This is largely hype in my opinion.
So pray for widespread rain November 2 and Bush will win by a landslide.
WE CAN NOT LET THE MOORE'S, RATHERS and SPINSTERS IN THE MSM WIN THIS ELECTION........
Bookmarked, printed, and placed under my pillow.
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