Posted on 10/15/2004 1:43:52 PM PDT by Lunatic Fringe
Edited on 10/15/2004 1:53:42 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Some other items:
Wu 58%, Ameri 36%
Measure 34 (Tillamook Forest lockup): Yes 39%, No 27%
Measure 36 (Preserve Traditional Marriage): Yes 57%, No 36%
What do we know about SurveyUSA?
Ballots are going out today.
NOT TRUE, NOT TRUE ! We came within a hair of electing a Republican Gov. and he was a poor candidate running against the Dem machines insider guy. We have one Republican Senator. The vote for Gore/Bush was tied at 47% each. Sure Nader got a lot of votes (77,000 or 10X the margin of victory) but the Libertarian and Buchanan go 7,000 each.
Oregon is a classic tossup state. Very evenly divided. The state legislature is controlled by ... the GOP.
Only Portland (not even Metro Portland) and Eugene and Salem are liberal. The rest of the state goes from moderate to conservative to Goldwater country. One county here is a "United Nations Free" and has signs saying so when you drive in.
Real totally lib / Dem states are Mass and NY and most of the New England area. That's Kerry country, not Oregon.
The comments from Rasmussen today indicate that Bush is back to where he was before the first debate. Remember way back then when we were all euphoric over the possibility of a serious trouncing of Kerry? Well, my opinion is that we are back there, and Kerry's slide is not over. He is so busy on the defensive right now over the lesbian comment and Stolen Honor that he is having to work hard to preserve the blue on the map. I think Bush is going to put him in a vice and pound him unrecognizable. Bush is one tough SOB. He has proved it time and time again. I really don't think Kerry knew who he was messing with when he got in this race.
Don't worry his buddy Ted Kennedy has already warned him about bridges...
Cummon! Next, MA will break for Bush...
So.. is Kerry 757ing it to Oregon next?
Survey USA has been all over the map this year, sometimes picking up things before others, other times indulging in extreme wishful fantasy (like Kerry up on +3 in California).
Thanks for having the patience to explain, once again, that Oregon is pretty close to evenly divided.
Wasn't Oregon one of the MANY states that could measure the
outcome for Gore by the late returns from 'Rat strongholds?
No, Riley is showing similar Bush support as other polls. They are showing lower Kerry support. Since they are locals, we might give them some benefit of the doubt.
Fund greatly worries about it in his book, I think. [I think this based on an interview I saw with him.] It is true that nobody else is there to stop someone for voting their elderly parent, kid away as school ect. On the plus side, you actually have to have an address it seems to vote.
I hope the Catholic vote can be turned around. My altar boy sons and husband were as offended by Kerry's altar boy reference as others were by Mary Cheney. Got a great mailer from "Catholic Answers" today explaining why a vote for abortion, euthenasia, cloning, gay marriage, etc. was wrong. The catholic vote is divided because of years of liberals telling us every Sunday that involvement in social justice concerns determines your holiness. It's sorta amusing to watch. For example, last week the Washington Compost carried an op-ed in it's Sunday edition written by a presbyterian who interviewed a Catholic Priest on voting and whether or not the issues/candidates were appropriate homily/sermon fare. The priest they interviewed "Jerry Creedon" is notoriously the most far left wacko in the fairly conservative Arlington diocese.
Praying for Oregon
No Riley has not shown Bush "further ahead". They've shown much weaker support for Kerry, while Bush gets similar support to other polls. Perhaps they, being locals in Oregon, know something about mushy Kerry voters and their likelihood of showing up.
It looks like a professional local Oregon polling firm that works for Channel 8.
Bush lost by just over 6,900 votes....The whole state lost because of 6,900 votes.....
The over all reaction to EVERYONE that I've talked to, Repub's and Dem's, is that Bush will win. Had a great chat with two dems and they both said that they were going to vote Bush......they couldn't stand the idea of another witch in the White House......
All voting in Oregon is "vote by mail"....but the first ballots are just being mailed out today...so we aren't QUITE voting yet.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.