Posted on 10/20/2004 3:24:53 AM PDT by sure_fine
American voters, while split over who should be the next president, overwhelmingly predict that President Bush will vanquish Sen. John Kerry, an expectation that could affect the outcome of a close election.
While the various national polls show that voters prefer the president over Mr. Kerry by an average of four points, those same surveys place Mr. Bush some 20 points ahead on the question of which candidate is expected to win.
"This could be a big cause of concern for Kerry," professor Vicki Morwitz of New York University said. "If people really think Bush is going to win, they may have a slight tendency to shift their preference and ultimately vote for Bush, even though they were a Kerry supporter to begin with."
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
no doubt
Three cheers for that tendency! It's still gonna be a long couple of weeks....and then the lawsuits.
Assume - until hopefully proven otherwise on 2-3 NOV - that President Bush is narrowly trailing the Second Choice Flip-Flopper in this race. Bring two friends with you to vote for Dubya.
Illustrating why anyone with a bias would slant their polls...
This isn't entirely surprising when one considers their attitude towards Iraq.
"If you like Kerry and then find out the electorate doesn't like him — they seem to like Bush better — that makes you feel psychologically uncomfortable," she explained. "And people don't like to be in a dissonant state, whether it's about politics, whether it's about products, whether it's about anything.
"So they try to find a way to get out of that state," she added. "Therefore, there might be at least a small number of Kerry supporters shifting their attitudes to be a little more pro-Bush so that their expectations and preferences line up."
A technical way of saying that the ignorant follow the herd...
Great analysis. This terrifies Kerry boosters in the MSM. Their deeply ingrained doubts about Kerry's prospects are what really drive their speak now evil of JFK agenda. It's what motivates preposterous statements like "This is Kerry's race to lose" from Mark Halperin and Evan Thomas. W. will win because the majority of the electorate thinks he is going to win. Do anything you can to reinforce the impression.
< /end sarcasm >
Looks like the leftist are already attempting to prepare for a soft-landing. Kerry will soon be the most hated Democrat since...since Gore..or, since Carter...no. Mondale! There are so many losers to chose from, I'm sure it must be confusing for them.
Actually, I think that after this election, particularly if Bush wins decisively, contrary to the polls and pundits, the Democrats will have to retool their show. Not even their own supporters believe the tripe that's coming out of Kedwards mouths now. Ramp up the suicide hot-lines; they're gonna be busy with introspective Dems after 11/02, as they try to figure out what happened.
SFS
An illustration of your ideas: Kerry came to Ohio and bought a hunting license, with these words quoted in the newspaper; "I'm gonna get me a hunting license". This is how he thinks people talk in Ohio and he's just trying to be "one of the guys".
Kerry's going to demonstrate his crwling around on his belly technique to hunt deer. Can't wait to see that. :)
Same thing going on here in Manhattan. Yesterday at breakfast a liberal stalwart threw out the question to the group, "So does anyone think Kerry will win?"
I was giving him a hard time about supporting Kerry, you know, "putting lipstick on a pig", that kind of crack, when he said something that startled me. He responded "He's an asshole." He then caught himself and replied, "They're both assholes". But the damage was done. He knows Kerry is toast.
Another thing I noticed in my heavily Democratic area. There are many yard signs supporting the local Dems, and in a presidential election year you usually see the presidential team's sign in those same yards, but not this year. There is a noticable lack of Kedwards signs in Democrat yards.
That's right, give up! There's no hope! Stay home and have a beer! Your vote means NOTHING! *evil grin*
What a tool. Too bad it was text and not a sound byte. Thurston would turn off people in droves if they could just hear him saying that.
I lived in Ohio for about twenty years, and the people there are just *not* as stupid and gullible as he thinks they are. NOBODY is going to believe that any candidate would really take a day off in the last two weeks of a gut-churning presidential campaign to go HUNTING!
Senator Johnny Nam will go down in history with the rest of those famous presidents, like President Dukakis who, after his own inspiring tank ride, encouraged the Soviet Union to chase Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait in '91, and Moscow gladly obliged, and their standing Middle Eastern Army of 2 million soldiers has been keeping the peace ever since...
...and of course there was President Mondale, who increased federal spending 1500 percent in the first day after being sworn in January 20, 1985, and when critics said 'how are you going to top that act?', Mondale signed new tax legislation which increased the confiscatory percentage of income for all Americans earning more than $40,000 to a whopping 80 percent...making Americans more equal with the unfortunate global citizens and serfs who have nothing.
And to think it all began with the SECOND term of President Jimmy Carter, who followed up the Camp David accords with the Leningrad accords, which ended the Cold War with unilateral U.S. disarmament, in exchange for a promise from Leonid Brezhnev that the Soviet Union would always respect the vital interest of the United States. In celebration of the historic agreement, Carter was greeted by millions as he toured the re-united German Democratic Peoples Republic, the Italian Soviet Peoples Republic, and as always, the French honored their new Communist occupiers with the classic Gallic greeting, 'Table for 200,000 monseuir, our wine, our women, and our freedom is yours for the asking!'
Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, with the UK surrounded and having lost nearly all her allies, said 'if only Ronald Reagan had won the 1980 election'...
Yes, President Kerry won't have much to do, but he'll make a fine Commissar for the American Peoples Republic, and it is rumored that he could be in line for a Politburo job in Moscow after his presidential term ends.
bump
This obviously doesn't apply here.
Many people still have a bandwagon mentality and want to be on the winning team. If they perceive Bush as the eventual winner, they would lean toward him. That trend would be bolstered by a confident and comfortable appearing President vs an increasingly shrill challenger throwing wild punches in the hopes of landing one. On the other hand, in 1992 we had a challenger looking confident and talking cabinet picks vs an incumbant perceived as the aging athlete who needs to retire.
I believe it's not so much a tendency, but a revelation.
A revelation that they don't trust Kerry, and even though they say they will vote for him to the pollsters, they know in their hearts that once inside the ballot booth, they'll be voting for Bush.
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