I've posted my Virginia/New Jersey test elsewhere on FReep.
My test goes like this: if Virginia is in the running, President Bush is toast. If New Jersey is in the running, Sen. Kerry is.
In the past, I haven't believed that either state was seriously in the running. This poll wants me want to re-think that.
I think your theory is plausible. The real question is not whether Bush actually takes NJ; it is the fact that NJ is close. If NJ is close, OH, FL are probably heading into the Bush column, with WI and IA leaning heavily toward Bush. Heck, there is one poll out there that shows MN in play.