Louisiana and Florida are possibilities.
Castor is getting killed over the Sami Al-Arian issue. I can't see this race at anything but at least a tossup. Democrats are likewise panicking over Louisiana, where Vitter is a serious threat to top 50% while his Democratic opponents trash each other and try to tie David Duke to the other.
I tried to be as realistic and unbiased as possible
when I reviewed all the polling data.
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The 3 way race in Louisiana is hard to predict,
I suspect the supporters of the democrat candidates
will gang up on Vitter in a run-off.
His numbers remain in the mid 40% range.
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Another pickup in Florida would be a welcome addition
and it is very possible.
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There are at least two other 'sleeper' races
(Alaska and Colorado)
that we can continue to hope for.
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I think the 53 vs. 46 vs. 1 is believable.
If I wanted to go out on a limb,
I could dream up a 57 vs. 42 vs. 1 scenario.