Posted on 10/26/2004 9:04:40 AM PDT by renotse
Presidential Tracking Kerry 48 Bush 48
Congress Dem 45 GOP 43
President Bush Job Approval 52
Electoral College Bush 222 - Kerry 207
Bush Favorable 52 Unfavorable 47
Kerry Favorable 50 Unfavorable 49
Battleground States Bush 48 Kerry 48
Right Track? Right 43 Wrong 54
Who is a Better Leader? Bush 49 Kerry 41
Trust on Nat'l Defense? Bush 52 Kerry 43
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 49 Kerry 46
Winning the War on Terror US 49 Terrorists 27
How is Bush handling Iraq Ex/Good 44 Poor 44
How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 42 Poor 43
Advantage Bush. His Job approval at 52%
"I have some suspicion as to whether or not Rasmussen might "slip" some junk data in there like Saturday appeared to be so that he gets more traffice to his site and such"
---I said that yesterday that he fixed his numbers to get more traffic to his web site -- especially Dem's who wouldn't go there otherwise
His polls are conducted by automated bots.
The spike in data seems to indicate that ras changed something in the poll itself (calling times, questions in the polls, areas canvased, etc) given the results.
In any event, I think that Kerry has jumped the shark. They are holding onto a lie, hoping that some natural disaster disables talkradio and the internet for a couple of days.
Limbaugh is suppoed to be hot and heavy on bombgate today.
This is raw data (after he weights everything) that I've been tracking since January.
Blogger, Jay Cost, says Rasmussen is not a good poll. I agree.
"The same goes for Rasmussen and Survey USA polls. The reason for this is that they are done by an automated caller. Respondents do not speak to a real person. This skews results because people are more inclined to hang up. More hang ups mean that the ultimate sample that they take is not respresentative of the national public. A common sense test of this hypothesis that something smells fishy with Rasmussen can be seen by the fact that his is the only poll whose results have been consistently within the margin of error. In other words, Bush and Kerry each have always ranged from about 44 to 50. In other words, the difference between any given Rasmussen poll with any other given Rasmussen poll can be explained entirely by statistical differences. Rasmussen's poll indicates that there has been no statistically noticeable movement in the electorate in nearly nine months. His is the only poll where this is the case. Anybody believe that?"
Thanks. In the end, I think the internals on all of the polling, which has been consistent from poll to poll, will result in a bigger win for Bush than some might expect.
Okay, and thanks.
I do not think we can sit around and debate who is going to win with polls 49-48 or 48-46 or 47-47...It is pointless. ITS ALL ABOUT TURNOUT!!!!!!!!!
Strong night for Bush to knock off 2 points.
It only skews results if republicans are more inclined to hang up than democrats. I'm not going to bother defending Rasmussen since he doesn't have a good track record, but SurveyUSA has been the best state pollster along with Mason-dixon. Of course SurveyUSA could be doing something wrong this election.
I said that is shorter version. Neither side is more than 2-3 points..EVER.
I agree that it is about turnout. But based on these polls we just need certain segments of Bush's base to perform up to the mediocre standards of the average voter.
For example, SW Fla. Republican voters underperformed in 2000. So did some in the Panhandle, particularly Dixie County. See http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/10/bush-has-strong-advantage-in-florida.html
Finally, evangelical Christians underperformed as well. If we can just get certain groups like this to turnout like they should, it will be over for Kerry.
If anything carries Bush, it will be the internals of the polls.
Methinks Rasmussen just wants to be close this year to "make up" for 2000.
I have read this many times, but I have never seen a reliable source for this. Anybody have one?
Before all these polls and when there was just Gallup, if candidate reached 50%, it was all good. Bush has done that on a number of occassions. Kerry has bad internals in these polls, and believe it or not, I believe the Weekly Reader poll. Those kids reflect the parents. Parents seem to be strongly for Bush.
JMHO
Here's a reliable source, IMO:
http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/10/bush-evangelicals-and-cultural.html
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