Posted on 10/26/2004 9:04:40 AM PDT by renotse
Kerry 48% Bush 48%
Tied exactly to the decimal point. Bush will be back in the lead tommorow as a very pro-Kerry sample drops off.
One week to go and it can't possibly get any closer.
The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 47.8% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 47.8%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
When leaners are included, it's Kerry 48.8% Bush 48.7. Other Candidates attract 0.7% and 1.8% are not sure (half of those who are not sure probably won't vote). Ninety-three percent (93%) of Bush voters are certain they won't change their mind. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Kerry voters say the
Trend going Bush's way again, even though WAPO poll will show a Kerry lead today.
Please move the decimal point out two or three more places.
I have some suspicion as to whether or not Rasmussen might "slip" some junk data in there like Saturday appeared to be so that he gets more traffice to his site and such. My liberal friend was touting the Rasmussen poll this morning as evidence Kerry was going to win big, which means his ploy (if it was one) succeeded in getting more attention.
If WAPO shows a lead, it will only be slight because of the weekend.
When the public understands the implications of the NYT fiasco the bottom will likely drop out. What was the delta between WAPO and rassmussen yesterday?
Exactly. A birdie (and a reliable source) tells me that according to Rasmussen himself, the Kerry spike was due mostly to a bad sample on Saturday, all or most of which is due to drop off tomorrow. The key to this poll, as always, is that the job approval number remains good, and will very likely tick upwards tomorrow as the aforementioned Kerry sample drops off.
And so begins another weeks/six days cycle.
Saw this: "Rasmussen said yesterday he expected his poll to match Zogby by Wednesday."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1257476/posts?page=2#2
No kidding.
Bush 43.7/48.3/51.4, Kerry 47.5/47.8/48.1 for Sa/Su/Mo samples.
So tomorrow, the bad Saturday sample goes away, and it will be something like Bush 49-Kerry 47.
Take it to the bank!
Will he ever show Bush above 50 before 11/1? Stay tuned!
Saturday raw data
Bush 43.7
Kerry 48.1
Sun
Bush 48.3
Kerry 47.8
Mond
Bush 51.4
Kerry 47.5
Agree, Bush should take the lead back tomorrow and be back up by 2-3 by Friday
Petronski, got an updated graphic coming?
Why is it I've posted to the first 2 postings..and they were pulled...Will this one get pulled next?
Oops! That should be 48.1/47.8/47.5 for Kerry, not the other way around.
So, WAPO should be tied or bush up today.
Well, it was reported yesterday that Rassmussen had included the question, "Do you support a return to the draft," in their poll, which turns their poll into a push poll.
My liberal friend was touting the Rasmussen poll this morning as evidence Kerry was going to win big,
The bottom line is, yesterday's kerry lead was nothing more than an abberation. The somewhat bad Friday result is gone as of today and that ties it up. The very bad saturday result will be gone tomorrow and that will put bush back in the lead, barring further sample problems.
If you see one poll showing a wild result when the rest are all saying otherwise, wait a couple of days for confirmation.
Because this poll is a four day sample, the key day is Thursday, when the very strong Kerry sample from Saturday drops off. But if it is roughly the same today as yesterday, then Bush will soon get an uptick. If Bush gets an uptick today, so much the better.
Is this raw data or your best guess? I'll happily take it either way.
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