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The 51 percent nation [Barone Once Again Nails It]
US News ^ | Nov. 6, 2004 | Michael Barone

Posted on 11/06/2004 6:39:33 PM PST by conservativecorner

Love is stronger than hate. That is the lesson of the 2004 election results. Millions of Democrats and leftists have been seething with hatred for George W. Bush for years, and many of them lined up before the polls opened to cast their votes against him--one reason, apparently, that the exit poll results turned out to favor Democrats more than did the actual results. But Republicans full of love, or at least affection, for George W. Bush turned out steadily later in the day or sent in their ballots days before. They have watched the "old media" --the New York Times, the broadcast networks CBS, ABC, and NBC--beat up on Bush for the past year, and they have listened to the sneers and slurs directed at him by coastal elites for a long time. Now they had their chance to speak. They did so loudly and clearly, giving Bush the first popular-vote majority for president in 16 years.

Browse through an archive of columns by Michael Barone.

The line among political insiders was that turnout would increase from 2000 and that higher turnout would favor John Kerry. Right and wrong. Turnout was up 11 percent, but Bush's total votes were up 18 percent from 2000, while Kerry's were up just 10 percent from Al Gore's. The Democrats relied on labor unions and billionaire-financed 527 organizations for their turnout drives. They depended primarily on paid workers, some of whom were very good and some very poor; one in Ohio signed up Mary Poppins to vote and was paid with crack cocaine. The Bush campaign built its own organization and relied primarily on volunteers, some 1.2 million of them. Volunteers were given varied tasks and numeric goals and were repeatedly tested. They delivered on Election Day.

On election night, most observers were focusing on central cities to see how many votes the Democrats would roll up. Working for Fox News, I concentrated on smaller counties in Florida, Ohio, and other target states in which all or nearly all the precincts had reported results. I found a clear pattern in state after state. In small and medium-sized counties, turnout was up, by 10 percent, 20 percent, even 40 percent in fast-growing areas, and the Bush percentage was up as well, by 2, 4, or even 8 percentage points. Aggregate those increases, and you have more new Republican votes than new Democratic votes in Cuyahoga or Broward counties. That, repeated over and over again, is the story of this election. Karl Rove's strategy of concentrating on increasing Republican turnout worked.

Media bias. Four years ago, I wrote that this was a 49 percent nation. In the 1996, 1998, and 2000 House elections, Republicans led in the popular vote by 49 to 48 or 48.5 percent; the 2000 presidential election was a 48-to-48 percent tie. Americans seemed evenly divided, mainly on cultural and religious lines. In 2002 that changed a bit: Republicans won the House vote 51 to 46 percent while Bush's job approval hovered around 65 percent.

This year his job rating has hovered around 50 percent or below. He has been the target all year of vicious and biased coverage from old media, many if not most of whose personnel saw their job as removing this scourge from the presidency. The 60 Minutes story about Bush's Air National Guard service, which was based on obviously forged documents, is only the most egregious example. Old media have headlined violence in Iraq and reported almost nothing about positive developments there; they highlighted the charges of self-promoter Joseph Wilson and spoke nary a word when they were proved bogus; they have given good economic news far less positive coverage, studies show, than they did when Bill Clinton was in office.

Yet the results of this election closely resemble the 2002 House results. Bush beat Kerry 51 to 48 percent; the popular vote for the House appears to be about 51 to 47 percent Republican. Voters knew the stakes--polls showed majorities thought this was an important and consequential election--and both candidates had plenty of opportunity to make their cases. Thanks to the 527s, more money was apparently spent against Bush than for him. So the results cannot be dismissed as an accident. We are now a 51 percent nation, a Republican majority, as, once again in America, love has proved stronger than hate.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: barone; bushvictory
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1 posted on 11/06/2004 6:39:33 PM PST by conservativecorner
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To: conservativecorner

Indeed!


2 posted on 11/06/2004 6:47:24 PM PST by elizabetty
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To: conservativecorner

Hey libs....feel the love.....


3 posted on 11/06/2004 6:48:18 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: conservativecorner

wow, I didn't realize Barone was openly a partisan


4 posted on 11/06/2004 6:48:28 PM PST by Texas_Jarhead
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To: conservativecorner
I watched Bush's last campaign stop, in Dallas at SMU, on CSPAN. I was really moved, even though he just gave his same old stump speech. You could really feel the love, not just of the people for Bush, but also the love Bush felt for his supporters. I went to sleep that night feeling that their was no way that the good Lord would let this man lose such an important election.
5 posted on 11/06/2004 6:49:06 PM PST by Max Combined (There is in human nature generally more of the fool than of the wise.)
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To: Texas_Jarhead

He's right. I know I dearly love the President.


6 posted on 11/06/2004 6:49:52 PM PST by freepertoo
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To: conservativecorner
Imagine the Democrats, who think they are the party of 'love' really being seen for what they are-haters.

They hate President Bush for his goodness.

7 posted on 11/06/2004 6:51:38 PM PST by fortheDeclaration
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To: conservativecorner
To my democrat brothers and sisters:
A message of love and of coming together...


Stay Strong,
Fuzzy122

8 posted on 11/06/2004 6:53:41 PM PST by fuzzy122 (GBGB [God Bless George Bush] and Our Armed Forces!)
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To: conservativecorner

Barone did yeoman's work for Fox News on Election Night. He was articulate, lucid, measured and demonstrably right.

I've gained a lot of respect for him, and this column solidifies it.


9 posted on 11/06/2004 6:54:17 PM PST by Senator Goldwater
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To: conservativecorner

BTTT


10 posted on 11/06/2004 6:54:56 PM PST by Fiddlstix (This Tagline for sale. (Presented by TagLines R US))
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To: conservativecorner
I expect the margin of victory would have been much higher without the millions of dollars providing over 12 months of anti-Bush 527 ads. When I was in Florida last Winter, Moveon.org was advertising fast and furious.
11 posted on 11/06/2004 6:56:03 PM PST by SolitaryMan
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To: conservativecorner
Old media have headlined violence in Iraq and reported almost nothing about positive developments there;

Unfortunately, this includes FOX News.

When will they start reporting the good stuff about Iraq?

12 posted on 11/06/2004 6:56:09 PM PST by what's up
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To: conservativecorner

What a powerful opening he has here, as we continue to listen to Dems sneer about how dumb we "red" voters are...


13 posted on 11/06/2004 6:56:28 PM PST by GOPrincess
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To: conservativecorner
I just talked to my son who lives out of town, he was so thrilled that W won, but he made a comment that really took me by surprise because he is a VERY independent thinker. He said that the reason W won was because folk were TIRED of the viciousness in which the OMwhores attacked W! WHOA! Coming from my son, it spoke VOLUMES!...believe me!
14 posted on 11/06/2004 6:56:58 PM PST by RoseofTexas
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To: conservativecorner
I'd like to find out what the total 527 expenditure was for both the republicans and democrats as well as what was spent by the parties. Into that I would also like to see the dollar value of the MSM reporting biased toward the democrats.

The rediculous amounts of money that have been spent goes to prove that this country can not be bought. The Swifties ads were more effective than the millions and millions that were spent by Moveon.org. George Soros made a very BAD investment with his millions.

It's going to be interesting to see if these creeps will continue to pour their millions down the money hole, or if they have finally learned their lesson.

15 posted on 11/06/2004 6:57:06 PM PST by McGavin999 (George Soros just learned a very expensive lesson-America can't be bought.)
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To: Senator Goldwater

I've said elsewhere that Barone deserves some sort of award for his work on Fox on Election Night. Never seen anything like it. I was fascinated by the way he zeroed in knowledgeably on county after county...a veritable human election computer.


16 posted on 11/06/2004 6:57:27 PM PST by GOPrincess
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To: Senator Goldwater

Yeah he was great on Fox.He nailed Ohio county by county.


17 posted on 11/06/2004 6:58:19 PM PST by JessieHelmsJr
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To: conservativecorner; nutmeg

**On election night, most observers were focusing on central cities to see how many votes the Democrats would roll up. Working for Fox News, I concentrated on smaller counties in Florida, Ohio, and other target states in which all or nearly all the precincts had reported results. I found a clear pattern in state after state. In small and medium-sized counties, turnout was up, by 10 percent, 20 percent, even 40 percent in fast-growing areas, and the Bush percentage was up as well, by 2, 4, or even 8 percentage points. Aggregate those increases, and you have more new Republican votes than new Democratic votes in Cuyahoga or Broward counties. That, repeated over and over again, is the story of this election. Karl Rove's strategy of concentrating on increasing Republican turnout worked.**

Barone was the first one to throw out the exit polls. He said they were totally wrong.

That's why Fox News Channel was calling all the races before the other networks. They threw out that factor and were able to see the real trends. Hats off to Michael Barone and Brit Hume!


18 posted on 11/06/2004 6:59:12 PM PST by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: Texas_Jarhead
wow, I didn't realize Barone was openly a partisan

perhaps i am reading his work through partisan glasses, but i thought this was non-partisan. his work was very scientific and much data was analyzed and presented. the fact that he drew the conclusion he did, in my mind, does not make this a partisan piece of work.

19 posted on 11/06/2004 6:59:37 PM PST by mlocher (america is a sovereign state)
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To: GOPrincess

you are so correct.


20 posted on 11/06/2004 7:00:48 PM PST by mlocher (america is a sovereign state)
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