Ohio Provisional Ballots Seem Legitimate

AP ^ | 11/17/2004 | MARK WILLIAMS

[KevinDavis]

I think half of the Ballots would go to Kerry. There is no way in heck that he would overtake Bush lead.

[AxelPaulsenJr]

The main problem I have with provisional ballots is the danger of fraud. In theory all a person had to do, would be to front up at every polling place in the country and demand to vote. Who knows if they will be caught or not? Provisionals ballots was just another demorat grab at votes, along with motor voter.

Also, in my humble opinion, anyone too stupid to remember the precinct in which they are supposed to vote, should not be deciding who it is that will be running the most powerful nation on Earth.

[NYFriend]

I have no doubt.

[luv2ski]

At 81% legit, Kerry loses even if all of the ballots go for him. He gets 124,203 move votes; Bush's initial margin is 136,000 votes. Bush ends up ahead by 11,797 votes even if Kerry gets all of the provisional votes. What do you want to bet Kerry's people did very similar math before he conceded.

They definitely did! It was discussed in Ryan Lizza's piece in the New Republic (posted on FR) a couple of days after the election. Lizza said that Kerry's staffers stayed up until 4am trying to figure out how to challenge the election results. They got precinct info from all their operatives in Ohio and realized that they just didn't have the votes. At this point Kerry made the decision to concede.

[mjwise]

Ohio has had provisional balloting for many years. It is NOT new for us. 87% of all provisionals were deemed valid in 2000. 81% validity this year would not be surprising at all.

[mjwise]

....which is why you can only file provisional ballots in the correct precinct in Ohio. If you vote in the wrong precinct, your ballot is simply discarded. Blackwell won that fight before the election.

[Condor51]

..the spoiled ballots, why are they not figured in?

Uh... because they're Spoiled.

Spoiled ballots never were, never are and never will be counted, as they can't be - because they're ... uh.. spoiled.

(not trying to be a smart a__)

[SoftballMominVA]

I have seen discussions both here and "ANOTHER SITE" of the spoiled ballots being counted. Anyone have any hard facts on that?

[Columbus Dawg]

Any word on Franklin County's provisional count?

[Jorge]

I'd read that John Fund reported last week that half of Ohio's provisional ballots had been thrown out at illegal. Either he, or this report, are wrong.

I heard John Fund say the same thing.
That's why I was surprised by this report.

[AxelPaulsenJr]

Aren't the dims in Ohio filing suit to challenge the way that provisionals are considered to be legit?

[mjwise]

They are, but I don't expect anything to come from it. It's a grasping at straws maneuver as I see it.

[mjwise]

Sorry, haven't heard any Columbus news. I'm from Toledo -- over half of the provisionals were found to be invalid.

[mjwise]

2nd reply -- also, trying to change the provisional validating rules now could potentially be disastrous for an ontime count especially in urban counties if they have to try to revalidate them for some reason.