Posted on 11/17/2004 10:51:40 AM PST by Tennessean4Bush
I am confused about the difference between the 155K figure and the 135K number we are reading. In any case, if only 80% of the 155,000 are valid then that comes to about 125,000 and even if 100% of them went to Kerry he could not win. That one-third rejection rate from Cuyahoga, which is Kerry's best county, is very good news though.
My bigger concern is that there will be a forced recount that includes the "spoiled" ballots. Since they are by very definition spoiled, I don't see how they can be counted. But if they are up against the Dec 13 deadline for the day the electoral college is to vote, then this could lead to a chaotic situation.
I'm not sure where the 155,000 number comes from (the wishful liberal media?) but the 135,000 number comes from the state of Ohio.
Also there is no way in heck that Kerry will recieve the all of the 135,000 pv.. If GW was in danger of losing Ohio the media will report it big time...
Voter Turnout: November 2, 2004Unofficial Results |
County Name | Total Precincts | Total Registered Voters | Total Votes Cast | Percentage of Votes Cast | Provisional Ballots Issued |
Adams | 35 | 17,696 | 12,094 | 68.34 | 184 |
Allen | 139 | 68,174 | 48,121 | 70.59 | 1,374 |
Ashland | 65 | 34,847 | 25,171 | 72.23 | 629 |
Ashtabula | 127 | 62,926 | 45,474 | 72.27 | 1,142 |
Athens | 69 | 45,100 | 27,960 | 62.00 | 2,504 |
Auglaize | 39 | 33,094 | 22,528 | 68.07 | 647 |
Belmont | 83 | 44,452 | 33,452 | 75.25 | 1,067 |
Brown | 35 | 28,922 | 20,030 | 69.26 | 326 |
Butler | 289 | 238,117 | 163,668 | 68.73 | 5,793 |
Carroll | 26 | 20,076 | 14,172 | 70.59 | 304 |
Champaign | 29 | 25,376 | 18,564 | 73.16 | 555 |
Clark | 100 | 89,683 | 68,883 | 76.81 | 1,279 |
Clermont | 191 | 125,823 | 88,019 | 69.95 | 1,818 |
Clinton | 32 | 25,092 | 18,177 | 72.44 | 378 |
Columbiana | 103 | 78,536 | 49,249 | 62.71 | 1,085 |
Coshocton | 43 | 22,679 | 17,331 | 76.42 | 277 |
Crawford | 46 | 29,591 | 21,906 | 74.03 | 424 |
Cuyahoga | 1,436 | 1,005,807 | 665,334 | 66.15 | 24,788 |
Darke | 43 | 38,290 | 26,379 | 68.89 | 710 |
Defiance | 42 | 25,847 | 18,169 | 70.29 | 672 |
Delaware | 123 | 100,676 | 79,691 | 79.16 | 1,891 |
Erie | 62 | 55,517 | 39,690 | 71.49 | 972 |
Fairfield | 118 | 91,498 | 67,632 | 73.92 | 1,306 |
Fayette | 38 | 16,093 | 11,704 | 72.73 | 293 |
Franklin | 788 | 845,720 | 515,472 | 60.95 | 14,446 |
Fulton | 35 | 28,561 | 21,902 | 76.69 | 381 |
Gallia | 35 | 23,567 | 13,944 | 59.17 | 574 |
Geauga | 96 | 65,393 | 51,286 | 78.43 | 668 |
Greene | 142 | 105,079 | 77,830 | 74.07 | 2,127 |
Guernsey | 37 | 27,129 | 16,570 | 61.08 | 558 |
Hamilton | 1,013 | 573,612 | 418,001 | 72.87 | 14,386 |
Hancock | 62 | 49,607 | 35,087 | 70.73 | 791 |
Hardin | 38 | 18,921 | 13,146 | 69.48 | 349 |
Harrison | 24 | 11,769 | 8,410 | 71.46 | 89 |
Henry | 33 | 19,685 | 15,188 | 77.16 | 250 |
Highland | 31 | 28,243 | 18,323 | 64.88 | 494 |
Hocking | 32 | 18,378 | 13,258 | 72.14 | 251 |
Holmes | 19 | 18,089 | 11,542 | 63.81 | 170 |
Huron | 55 | 37,436 | 25,584 | 68.34 | 670 |
Jackson | 38 | 23,997 | 14,332 | 59.72 | 422 |
Jefferson | 91 | 49,655 | 36,528 | 73.56 | 650 |
Knox | 56 | 36,971 | 26,661 | 72.11 | 689 |
Lake | 217 | 160,165 | 119,657 | 74.71 | 1,975 |
Lawrence | 84 | 41,424 | 27,876 | 67.29 | 599 |
Licking | 122 | 111,387 | 78,876 | 70.81 | 1,565 |
Logan | 52 | 29,406 | 21,135 | 71.87 | 650 |
Lorain | 239 | 196,601 | 139,069 | 70.74 | 4,134 |
Lucas | 495 | 302,136 | 216,453 | 71.64 | 6,719 |
Madison | 44 | 23,477 | 17,451 | 74.33 | 392 |
Mahoning | 312 | 194,673 | 131,938 | 67.77 | 2,717 |
Marion | 84 | 43,323 | 28,762 | 66.39 | 928 |
Medina | 149 | 118,330 | 84,725 | 71.60 | 1,266 |
Meigs | 27 | 15,205 | 10,813 | 71.11 | 240 |
Mercer | 37 | 31,306 | 20,478 | 65.41 | 931 |
Miami | 82 | 72,169 | 50,562 | 70.06 | 1,609 |
Monroe | 29 | 10,350 | 7,857 | 75.91 | 132 |
Montgomery | 588 | 391,914 | 279,801 | 71.39 | 9,227 |
Morgan | 22 | 9,358 | 6,770 | 72.34 | 160 |
Morrow | 36 | 24,249 | 16,403 | 67.64 | 314 |
Muskingum | 85 | 51,552 | 38,817 | 75.30 | 871 |
Noble | 27 | 8,879 | 6,715 | 75.63 | 75 |
Ottawa | 78 | 30,251 | 23,052 | 76.20 | 469 |
Paulding | 30 | 14,226 | 9,881 | 69.46 | 243 |
Perry | 46 | 23,480 | 15,328 | 65.28 | 428 |
Pickaway | 53 | 30,045 | 22,579 | 75.15 | 553 |
Pike | 24 | 19,661 | 12,708 | 64.64 | 285 |
Portage | 129 | 109,565 | 76,306 | 69.64 | 1,445 |
Preble | 45 | 28,137 | 21,226 | 75.44 | 493 |
Putnam | 35 | 24,572 | 18,948 | 77.11 | 246 |
Richland | 126 | 95,359 | 61,907 | 64.92 | 1,357 |
Ross | 76 | 43,463 | 31,402 | 72.25 | 563 |
Sandusky | 72 | 39,408 | 32,433 | 82.30 | 760 |
Scioto | 106 | 48,012 | 35,317 | 73.56 | 867 |
Seneca | 54 | 37,974 | 27,148 | 71.49 | 494 |
Shelby | 35 | 28,460 | 22,688 | 79.72 | 791 |
Stark | 364 | 267,939 | 186,252 | 69.51 | 6,653 |
Summit | 475 | 368,858 | 275,551 | 74.70 | 5,932 |
Trumbull | 274 | 142,548 | 108,533 | 76.14 | 2,700 |
Tuscarawas | 81 | 55,656 | 42,871 | 77.03 | 987 |
Union | 46 | 30,200 | 22,515 | 74.55 | 436 |
Van Wert | 39 | 21,100 | 15,252 | 72.28 | 297 |
Vinton | 20 | 8,527 | 6,059 | 71.06 | 129 |
Warren | 157 | 125,919 | 93,321 | 74.11 | 1,465 |
Washington | 56 | 40,881 | 29,707 | 72.67 | 643 |
Wayne | 97 | 69,672 | 51,898 | 74.49 | 818 |
Williams | 44 | 26,772 | 18,324 | 68.44 | 694 |
Wood | 105 | 91,492 | 61,865 | 67.62 | 2,655 |
Wyandot | 24 | 15,834 | 10,785 | 68.11 | 138 |
TOTAL | 11,360 | 7,979,639 | 5,574,476 | 69.86 | 155,428 |
Is there a difference between the number issued and the actual number case perhaps? I have seen that 135K figure listed too. In any case, since the rejection rate seems to be 20-40% per counter then the final number counted should be well below 135K, so that is not a concern. I remain more nervous about these "spoiled" ballots where they may try to find Demo votes where none exist.
I don't know how to explain the discrepancy between the 135,000 number sometimes mentioned and the 155,428 listed on the Ohio Secretary of State website. What I do believe, however, is that the provisional ballots will most likely result in a net gain for Bush. As you can see from the table I posted, they are distributed as one would expect, proportionally to the population of the counties. I believe they will break in each county close to how the votes were divided between Bush and Kerry in those counties. That should result in a slight increase in Bush's margin of victory, once the provisional ballots accepted as legitimate are counted. The spoiled ballots will not be counted as part of the official results due by December 1st.
Why is that?....the provisionals i mean
To me the most striking piece of information in that chart is the percentage of people voting. Look how many are over 65% even over 70%. None are under 50%. Not only did the people voice their opinions they did so in record numbers.
sorry....the spoiled ballots, why are they not figured in?
If I wanted my vote counted I would keep my registration up to date.
Others are reporting the spoiled ballots will be counted but that makes no sense. In any case I hope there will be no recount. The rules on this are unclear too but it sounds as if the state does not have to approve a recount even if one is requested, unless the margin of victory is much smaller.
This comment by Kerry about "still counting votes" has me wondering though. You'd think the reporter would have asked what do you mean by that? Are you girding for a fight maybe?? If he is he should just be honest and say so.
Why will the provisional ballots increase Bush's lead? Because the table on the Ohio Secretary of State's website shows that these ballots are distributed proportionally to the population of each county. If you consider the provisional ballots cast in a particular county, you would expect that the percent cast for Bush and Kerry to fall in line within a few percentage points to how the regular ballots were cast in that county. Since we know that in the aggregate Bush received more votes than Kerry from the regular ballots, when you aggregrate the results of the provisional ballots from each county, the net result should be a slight gain for Bush. In other words, the provisional ballots should roughly follow the results of the regular ballots cast. The only way I would have expected a different outcome is if the provisional ballots had been cast overwhelmingly in the Democratic strongholds. Thankfully, they were not.
K, makes sense, but why do you suspect that they will not review the "spoiled" ballots, like ,heaven forbid, Florida
Because I believe these "spoiled" ballots represent overvotes, where a voter inadvertently voted for more than one candidate for a particular office. In many cases, such as with the optical scanning machines, when the voter attempts to cast such a ballot, the overvote is detected as the voter's ballot is read by the voting machine. The ballot is rejected by the machine. The poll worker is alerted by the rejection and determines that an overvote has taken place, provides the voter a fresh ballot, and marks the uncounted ballot as spoiled. I personally witnessed such an occurance at my own polling place in Florida. Since the person whose initial ballot was "spoiled" got a fresh ballot and was able to vote, the "spoiled" ballot represents an erroneous duplicate ballot that should not be counted.
At 81% legit, Kerry loses even if all of the ballots go for him. He gets 124,203 move votes; Bush's initial margin is 136,000 votes. Bush ends up ahead by 11,797 votes even if Kerry gets all of the provisional votes. What do you want to bet Kerry's people did very similar math before he conceded.
They are inexpensive and require little or nothing in the way of equipment. Therefore a precinct can have or twenty people voting simultaneously at no great expense. There are no long waiting lines.
The ballots are easily and reliably counted. If a counting machine breaks it does not affect the ballot. If the counting machines aren't trusted, the ballots are easily counted by hand.
Let me give you a blated welcome to the Free Republic.
True it is not a waste to recount, if the count was not done correctly the first time. The danger in a recount is that the losing side now knows how many ballots they need to come up with to win.
"Of the 11 counties that have completed checking provisional ballots, 81 percent of the ballots are valid"
Having worked such ballots and the polls I find the 81% figure unbelievable. Whoever is reviewing these ballots are letting some in that are not valid.
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