Posted on 12/24/2004 4:03:10 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
/begin my translation
"The Passage of N. Korean Human Right Act signals the demise of N. Korean regime"
(Washington/Yonhap) Kim Dae-young - Speaking of N. Korea, Michael Horowitz, a leading American conservative figure and a Senior Fellow at Hudson Institute, predicted on (Dec) 23rd that N. Korea will "implode" within a year.
In a lecture given at Hudson Institute in Washington D.C. under the title of "It Ain’t Christmas in Pyongyang: Will the Kim Jong-Il Regime Last?", he told the audience, "N. Korea will implode before the next Christmas. Kim Jong-il won't enjoy Christmas next year."
Horowitz recently made a trip to S. Korea, during which he leveled criticisms toward S. Korean government's policy on N. Korea and advocated the regime-change in N. Korea.
He said, "The collapse of communist regimes is a historical inevitability. N. Korea will collapse on her own. Its day is fast-approaching."
He also mentioned the possibility of a coup inside N. Korea.
He went on to say, "After we find a few generals who could shut down their political prison camps and nuclear weapons programs, we could send them a message, saying that we could support them if they take certain actions.
I am sure that the political cost China has to pay for keeping Kim Jong-il regime afloat, is rising to the point that China had selected a N. Korean general who would replace Kim Jong-il. Chinese have studied a scenario in which the chosen general overthrows the regime, declares the state of emergency in N. Korea, and ask China to send 200,000 troops into the country."
As for N. Korean Human Right Act, he said, "Last September, in an unanimous vote, the Senate passed N. Korean Human Right Act, which is tougher than its House version. This is a strong signal for the demise of N. Korean regime. It was a dismaying development for this great country(S. Korea) that, while touring countries like Poland and Britain, (S. Korean) President Roh Moo-hyun talked about how Kim Jong-il will get to stay around for a long time." He also emphasized that Roh Moo-hyun's popularity is mere 19%.
A participant, who is an official from S. Korean embassy to U.S, countered, "Roh Moo-hyun's policy on N. Korea reflects a majority opinion of S. Koreans. S. Korean government is in close consultation with American government. N. Korean human right is important. However, we have to also consider WMD's, intra-Korean co-operation. We need to approach N. Korean problem in a multi-dimensional way. It is complicated and tangled."
However, Horowitz retorted, "The problem is not complicated, but quite simple. The more you give money to N. Korea in exchange for dismantling nuclear weapons, the more nukes would N. Korea get to make."
/end my translation
1) South Korea would declare that all North Korean refugees would automatically become citizens of South Korea. West Germany had this policy toward refugees from East Germany.
2) China would allow Right of Transit, for all North Korean refugees to South Korea (The DMZ is completely impassible). This would be analogous to Hungary's role in the creation of reunified democratic Germany.
At midnight on 10 September 1989, tens of thousands of East Germans who had poured into Hungary as so-called tourists, were allowed over the border into Austria and the West without visas. The Berlin Wall, which had divided East and West, fell two months later.
The free passage of tens of thousands of East Germans was a turning point in European history.
This is the main weakness of authoritarian regimes in their final days.
Ain't no hiding from his own generals.
Listen, North Korea is a much larger problem for the chicoms then the U,S,, and while I also don't care for totalitarian regeims, if all of n. korea suddenly disappeared I don't think I'd see too many tears.
"He also mentioned the possibility of a coup inside N. Korea."
This ties into the news about the disappearing statues and the name change from "Dear Leader" on some broadcasts.
I'm wondering how much of this is US/Western reporting and how much is news creation.
Okay, the only reason N.Korea has zero AIDS is because A) They don't have the ability to detect it B)If someone did have AIDS there they didn't live very long, C) How do you know that's not just some Communist propaganda?
We frequently encounter the academic argument that the USSR, eg, was not "real communism," based on various abstract distinctions. One of these abstractions is the issue of "cult of personality."
One could address at some length the relative wisdom of trying to fit reality into an abstraction, rather than designing abstractions which account for reality.
Suffice it to say here, there has never been and never will be a totalitarian system such as Soviet communism,Nazism, Ba'athism, etc, WITHOUT a "cult of personality." Napoleon, Bismarck, Lenin, Hitler, Mao, Ho, Castro, Kim Il Sung, Saddam, PolPot, the list goes on.
The abstraction of "communism", if it is to have any real world validity or utility, must acknowledge that by definition it will be generated by a charismatic leader.
The Cult of Personality is essential to the existence of tyranny.
I am think along the similar line. I think that he His words are intended to be as much a prediction as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Making a prediction so openly would make things happen more likely.
My remark about North Korea not having any AIDS cases is in reference to the article the other day in which they threw 27 people with AIDS out of North Korea and then proclaimed they were the only nation that was AIDS free.
It was just sarcasm.
Commies keep going as long as they are funded by the west. The Soviets got Armand-money, Rockefeller money, whatever money, and are still spending it or simply commanding their slaves, money notwithstanding, to develop the latest ICBMs to destroy the planet. The Chicoms are the LARGEST industrial nation the world has ever SEEN! thanks to THEIR slaves. The west just throws money at them, as the Chicoms fashion the noose for the west. This isn't the 'middle kingdom' anymore. Communist China is an imperialist power, bent on conquering other countries. As long as they keep giving Castro his pittance, and keep the North Korean regime going, they stay in power, thanks to their secret police - the 'gestapo'. Islam and Communism are potent threats in this world. Communism/socialism appears about to triumph as the west, all but the Anglo-alliance, the Asian democracies, and the east Europeans, surrenders.
Maybe somebody will throw Soros in jail and confiscate all his wealth and save us from Communism, then?
It's difficult to imagine Kim Jong-Il standing by peacefully while a Soviet Union-style collapse takes place. He has one of the largest military forces in the world and it would be fanciful to imagine that any significan number of his generals would disobey orders to impose a crackdown.
'Assistance' from the People's Liberation Army is not something I had considered. It's hard to say what the Chinese would do with such a request. The implications for US forces stationed on the peninsula in such a scenario don't seem attractive.
Then there is a question of timing. What if China decides to try and tip Taiwan while all of this is going on? With our forces occupied as they are in Iraq and Afghanistan, would the Chinese consider this to be a tempting opportunty?
What a freaking mess...
I am sure both sides try to work out some kind of mutually agreeable arrangement before taking on N. Korean problem.
However, it may not be an easy negotiation. If it does not work out, things could get messy, as you said.
Nothing like being trapped in a bunker for a long time. Certainly a possibility.
Not even a possibility. More likely, the Fuhrer would be deposed by aspiring Fuhrer's. But the Gestapo ain't going anywhere. Never does. These tyrannies are not destroyed from within, but from without.
Seal the bunker in concrete and let Kim Jong-il live out the rest of his life inside.
Tenured Professors at various United States universities.
My, my, my ~ that means it won't be worth anyone's while to attempt to trick him into getting into that bunker just before the escape tunnel is blown.
They'll just have to kill him won't they. tsk tsk tsk
It's not a problem of will, but of scale!
Even Barbara Streisand's fortune and that of her friends would not be sufficient to do more than keep Fidel Castro in Cuba for a few years, at most. Doesn't mean they're not trying of course!
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