Posted on 02/01/2005 7:22:53 AM PST by dead
It will not suit America's interest for the Shiites to gain government in Iraq, writes Amin Saikal.
The most dramatic outcome of the Iraqi election is the historical empowerment of the country's Shiite majority. This will have profound implications for Iraq's national identity and the regional balance of power.
It marks the end of minority Sunni political dominance and the beginning of Iraq's transition away from the Arab world towards what may emerge as a strategic Shiite entity, stretching from central Afghanistan to Syria and Lebanon.
This is bound to alter the regional geostrategic landscape to an extent that may come to haunt those policy-makers in Washington who have forcefully argued for the remaking of the Middle East in the image of the United States.
The empowerment of the Iraqi Shiites was not on Washington's agenda when the US President, George Bush, decided on the invasion of Iraq. The objective was to topple Saddam Hussein's dictatorship, uncover his alleged weapons of mass destruction as the main justification for the invasion, and transform Iraq into a US-linked state in a way that would bring about wider favourable changes in the region against US foes, especially the predominantly Shiite Islamic republic of Iran.
Bush seemed to be as resentful of the Iranian Islamic regime as he was of that of Saddam. Hence his labelling of Iran, along with Iraq and North Korea, as a member of "axis of evil".
Following the invasion of Iraq, the US Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, made it clear the US would not allow a Shiite-dominated government to emerge in Iraq even as an outcome of a democratic election, for two main reasons. One was that it would strengthen the position of Iran, enabling Tehran to exert greater influence against the interests of the US and its allies in the region.
The other was that it would change the national character of Iraq from being an Arab state with close organic ties with the Sunni-dominated Arab world, where only Bahrain has a Shiite majority (although it is ruled by a Sunni minority), and where the US has traditionally found some of its most dependable allies.
However, the Sunni-dominated Iraqi insurgency increasingly dashed this American expectation. As the US-led campaign of pacification faltered, it caused Washington to look for an exit strategy.
America's options narrowed to a "democratic election" as the best means to secure a central authority that could take over the running of Iraq, allowing the US and its allies to thin out their forces and minimise their losses, as soon as possible.
This is also what the Iraqi Shiites wanted, given their confidence that in any pluralist democratic election their numerical strength would prevail and thus they would inherit the political power to lead Iraq without having to confront their Sunni counterparts in a costly insurgency.
The role played by the moderate Iraqi Shiite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani and Tehran in guiding the Iraqi Shiites to this direction has been critical. Tehran must now be pleased that despite the Bush Administration's continued hostility towards it, the circumstances have changed in its favour.
Although the Iraqi Shiites are predominantly Arab and this may caution them against leaning too much towards Iran, there are new national and regional imperatives which could easily move them on that path.
Their takeover of Iraq will not be supported by the Sunni insurgents and will be watched suspiciously by Iraq's other US-backed national minority, the Kurds. The Kurds want extensive autonomy or independence but know the Shiites, as well as Iraq's two powerful neighbours, Iran and Turkey, will be opposed to their demand. Both Tehran and Ankara are concerned about the impact an autonomous or independent Iraqi Kurdish entity would have on their Kurdish minorities.
Meanwhile, most of the Arab world cannot be expected to embrace a Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad.
Their main concern would be the boost that it could provide to their suppressed Shiite minorities and Iran's position. It could enable Tehran to solidify a Shiite strategic entity extending from central Afghanistan, which has a 20 per cent Shiite population (many of whom feel close sectarian affiliation with Iran), to Syria and Lebanon, where the Bashar Assad Government and Hezbollah, respectively, are allied with Tehran.
The Bush Administration may find that the unintended consequences of its invasion may bring it more isolation in the Sunni world of Islam than it may have ever envisaged, and this may outweigh the benefits that it had hoped to gain from its Iraq adventure.
The question is: will Washington now need to make another tactical somersault to avoid a civil war in Iraq and to contain rising regional Shiite power by realigning its interests with the Sunnis in the Arab world as well as the predominantly Sunni Pakistan, at the cost of its much publicly cherished goal of democratisation in the region?
Amin Saikal is professor of political science and director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University.
I like this line too:
Bush seemed to be as resentful of the Iranian Islamic regime as he was of that of Saddam.
As if the whole war on terror thing is some outgrowth of a randomly resentful simpleminded Bush. Like somebody mussed the big oaf’s hair.
Amin Saikal has been an Islamic apologist since Day One and his predictions have been wrong at every turn.
Let's have some full disclosure. Is Amin Saikal a Sunni Muslim? If so, is he a religious bigot?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1332544/posts
Mark Steyn: The 'civil war' that wasn't
The Australian ^ | 1 February | Mark Steyn
Posted on 01/31/2005 8:11:24 AM CST by Eurotwit
"AND so the "looming Iraqi election fiasco" joins "the brutal Afghan winter" and "the brutal Iraqi summer" and "the seething Arab street" and all the other junk in the overflowing trash can of post-9/11 Western media fictions. The sight of millions of brave voters emerging from polling stations holding high their purple dye-stained fingers was so inspiring that, from America's Democratic Party to European protest rallies, opponents of the war waited, oh, all of three minutes before flipping the Iraqis their own fingers, undyed."...snip
Good antidote to these naysayers.
That's an interesting question that I do not know the answer to. Maybe somebody else does.
<< The [United States of America] may find that the unintended consequences of its invasion may bring it more isolation in the Sunni world of Islam than it may have ever envisaged, and this may outweigh the benefits that it had hoped to gain from its Iraq adventure. >>
Good find, dead.
Poor sunni boy is so full of shiite I'll bet his Ahab eyes are brown!
This deduction despite that his ranting is reduced to the level of the Dream Team by his palpable hatred of our President and of the achievements, so far, brought about by our nation's and its allies half-way-around-the-world projection of our Great Power.
The man's a moron.
But your remarks are priceless!
The age old 'divide and conquer' strategy DOES work well in the Middle East....duh.
Iran is about to experience a regime change soon too I suspect...Israel cannot sit idly by while Tehran develops nukes. Iranian officials have already stated that it will be worth the retaliation to wipe Israel off the map with nukes.
If we don't pull the trigger on the Mullahs, surely Tel Aviv will.
As much as the world portrays Bush as a bungler on WMD, if one has a goal of reshaping the Middle East into a less barbaric state, taking out Iraq was the only way to have a staging area to do the rest. (The fact that this also happens to be the number 2 reserve of known oil doesn't hurt either, from a strategic standpoint.) A reformed Iran that is cozy with the reformed Iraq due to Shiite brotherhood works pretty well as a nucleus to offset Saud, Syria et al.
apropos quote!
Well, at least he didn't say it was all about oil : )
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