Posted on 05/17/2005 10:38:44 AM PDT by watsonfellow
I think the vote will be called on Thursday.
We will lose McCain, Chaffee, Snowe, Collins, and Hegel.
Nelson of Nebraska will abstain.
The vote will be 49-50.
We win.
Even if Nelson doesn't abstain, we still win on Cheney's vote.
I really don't think Specter, Warner, Voiny, or Lugar will vote against Frist.
Interestingly enough, I think that both Brown and Owens will get more than sixty votes in the actual confirmation vote, which will make a mockery of the Dems' claims.
No way Hagel goes off the reservation. He can't be that stupid..
His various statements over the weekend seem to indicate that he thinks he's "too intelligent" to vote to do away with the filibuster.
You mean as stupid as McCain, I presume.
I think you're right on them getting more than 60 votes anyways. I think a lot of Dems know they have to change their stand on abortion and other moral issues to get re-elected and I think the Dem platform, with the lead that Hillary has taken, will become very tricky on the matters of morality. Kerry's flip flop will be nothing compared to it.
You really don't think Voinovich will vote against Frist? He already has a reputation now that he should suffer for unless he does something fantastic to redeem himself.
No, Voinovich will vote to end the judicial filibuster.
Here's why.
A few years ago when Estrada's nomination was blocked by the Dems, Voiny took to the floor and almost barked his speech. He was FURIOUS! Just furious that the Dems would stoop this low.
He's alright on this issue.
Any Senator that doesn't side with the GOP on this one needs to be ejected from the party, even if it costs the majority. If you can't side with your own party on such a defining vote, you have no business being a member of that party.
[smile]. I have always said politicians are anything but stupid (for the most part). But McCain, Hagel...with 'presidential aspirations'... they make me wonder. Well, we'll find out what Hagel is all about, won't we? [smile]
I left myself open for that one, I guess..(g)..Hagel harbors natinal ambitions. No way he thinks that if he votes against the GOP on this, the base will give him a pass. He's posturing now, getting camera time..
What exactly will the vote be on? Ending filibusters in general, or just for judicial nominations, whats the wording of the resolution or whatever that they would be voting on.
Got an email yesterday from ACLJ - Jay Sekulow that Dewine might jump ship.
If Hagel jumps ship, I shouldn't be at all surprised to find him running against Tom Osborne in the next primary...something **nobody** in his right mind wants to do in NE.
I'm pretty sure this is how it will play out.
Frist will make a point of order that Filibusters for judicial nominations are out of order.
The presiding officer, Cheney, will make a ruling that filibusters for judicial nominations are out of order.
Reid will object to Cheney's ruling. The vote will be on Cheney's ruling.
We only need fifty votes because Cheney breaks a tie.
I think that Frist has the votes.
He either has fifty or fifty one votes.
Or he has a committment from GOP Senators like Collins to abstain....which would still result in a gop victory.
Won't happen..Ellsworth AFB in SDak got the ax..and that was a BIG part of Thume's campaign...that he had the clout to keep it open..if you cash in a chip, do it for Thune..
I thought Osborne was going to run for governor..
Re the vote count..WH doesn't want Cheney to have to cast the decisive vote.that's why they want the 51...at least..
I must disagree slightly. Don't kick them out, but they don't get 1 cent from the GOP. At any level. No state party support, no fundraisers from other members, no endorsements in the primary election. None.
The "big tent" approach stops here.
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