Hurricane forecaster revises number upward

Reuters ^ | May 31, 2005

[Dog Gone]

MIAMI  -- The Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season opening June 1 promises to be "very active," marked by an above-average number of storms and with high odds of a major hit on the United States, a researcher said today.

Colorado State University Professor William Gray and his research team expect 15 tropical storms, with eight of those growing to hurricane strength during the six-month storm season that runs to Nov. 30. They expect four storms to strengthen into intense hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater, which can cause extensive damage.

The revised estimate in Gray's final preseason forecast was up from 13 storms and seven hurricanes initially anticipated in his April forecast. The long-term average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

"We have adjusted our forecast upward from our early April forecast and now expect tropical cyclone activity to be about 170 percent of the average seasonal activity," Gray said.

There is a 77 percent chance of an intense hurricane hitting somewhere along the U.S. coastline in 2005, compared with a long-term average of 52 percent, the researchers said. The islands of the Caribbean and the Bahamas also faced above-average chances of a major hurricane strike, they said.

The revision was based in part on a decreased likelihood of the development of an El Nino, a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific waters that tends to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

The researchers also cited salinity changes that affect seawater density and in turn change the way warm and cold water circulate in the oceans. Those oscillations tend to come in 40- to 60-year cycles that bring decades of fewer storms followed by decades of more frequent storms.

"We expect this active tropical cyclone era to continue this year and to likely span the next two or three decades," said Philip Klotzbach, another of the researchers.

Last year was also an unusually busy hurricane season, with 15 tropical storms that spawned nine hurricanes in the Atlantic region, causing more than $45 billion of devastation. Four of the storms hit Florida.

[Beenliedto]

That photo was an excellent example of why any structure built near an Atlantic or Gulf Coast beach should be considered a temporary structure.

Fortunately, that was an area which is protected seashore, with nothing but some fishing camps on it (Core Banks/Portsmouth Island).

I flew over it a couple of days after the storm. It was major re-arranged.

I live in Beaufort, which is about thirty miles to the southwest. Our 18th century house talked to us a lot, and we were without power, but we only got a little water in the street closest to the waterfront, and no serious damage.

Funny what a few miles can do. All you have to do is be on the west side of those things, and you are usually okay.

[Valin]

Doom, Despair, and Agony on me...
Deep dark depression
Excessive misery...
If it weren't for bad luck,
I'd have no luck at all...
Doom, Despair, and Agony on me.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Interesting. I also live in DFW, but have a complete opposite view. Just last week some of us were talking about how it seems the weather forecasters have been much more accurate compared to say 20 years ago. I'm rather amazed at how well they do these days.

But that goofball weekend weather doofus (the one with Vince Gill hair) on Ch. 8 is really, really annoying with his silly overdone 'magic finger' graphics. Ya know, how he points at the map and a giant 'H' the size of Oklahoma or cartoonish raining clouds suddenly appears on the map, plop plop plop. Ironic, since the normal guy Troy is one of the best, just calm smooth facts and understatement. Maybe he keeps goofball on to make him look better?

[Mind-numbed Robot]

It has seemed to me, especially lately, that the weather man has usually been off. I also check the weather from the NWS on my computer. If they forecast rain, it doesn't, and vice versa. Maybe I have been selective in when I look depending on what I am doing. Most days I don't pay attention because I don't care what it does.

I agree about Troy Duncan. I remember Harold Taft once saying that predicting the weather in North Texas is especially tough because it forms here as opposed to just moving through as in other areas. He said the warm moist winds from the Gulf, the hot dry winds from Mexico, the prevailing winds from the west, and the cold fronts from the north all converge here. Deciding what that is going to produce is a bear.

At one time I decided that Troy was frequently right, except for his timing. Either what he predicted got here a day early or a day late.

[Howlin]

This site:

http://skeetobite.com/weather/

had GREAT graphics and tracks last year.

It's under construction right now; hopefully they're upgrading.

Pay $5 to Weather Underground, get rid of the popups and get access to some good stuff!

[OXENinFLA]

I was thinking this morning.

Shouldn't Hurricane season start ONCE WE HAVE A HURRICANE?

[OXENinFLA]

This is one of the better ones too.......


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Dog Gone]

Thanks for the link! Hadn't seen that one before.