We're in luck: The Times has exclusive photos of an experimental new spacecraft that might be able to divert the threat.
Posted on 08/03/2005 11:59:48 PM PDT by presidio9
While the shuttle is in space and our attention is tilted upward, it's worth thinking about what else is up there, especially an asteroid named 99942 Apophis. When this object - a little more than a thousand feet across - was first discovered last year, astronomers estimated that it had a distant chance of striking Earth in 2029. After closer observation, it seems likely that this asteroid will still pass very near our planet, but without striking it. There is still a possibility, however, that as it swings by it may hit a gravitational "keyhole," shifting its orbit far enough to make it strike Earth in 2036.
Beyond the question of whether Apophis deserves to be added to our regular list of doomsday worries, there's the practical matter of whether we can do anything about it. Hollywood heroics - trying to blast it out of the sky - might do more harm than good. NASA scientists think they have the technology to safely give it a nudge that might shift the orbit a few thousand feet. The trick is figuring out exactly when the asteroid will be in the exact place where such a modest bump would be effective.
One possibility is to put a radio beacon on the asteroid, as if it were a member of a wolf pack in Yellowstone. That would let astronomers refine their predictions of the asteroid's potential orbit when it next approaches Earth, in 2012-2013. Given NASA's recent success in firing a probe at the comet Temple I, planting a beacon on an asteroid seems doable.
You don't need to be a science-fiction writer to see a curious convergence here - the approach of a possibly Earthbound asteroid and the emergence of the scientific and technological capacity to cope with it. That, of course,
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
I wonder if the author of this piece ever heard of Deep Impact? You know...the rendezvous and intentional collision with a moving comet on July 4th, 2005?
It's not a "trick." It's called rocket science.
radio beacon?? whats wrong with telescopes?? do they expect an asteroid to run around changing course unpredictably??
I particularly liked the radio beacon thing. It gave the column just enough sci-fi cache to make it postable.
apparently the NY Times think that asteroids go around changing course for no reason whatsoever, or like wolves on the hunt. what is it with these people??
b-grade sci-fi cache.... like Plan-9 from Outer Space
BTW- who has the Space and Sci-Fi Ping Lists??
We're in luck: The Times has exclusive photos of an experimental new spacecraft that might be able to divert the threat.
Speaking of which, is it because we have a Republican president or has NASA been able to filter out anti-American fools from its ranks? The deep impact mission and the first Mars rover landing both took place on the 4th of July.
Speaking of which, how are Spirit and Opportunity doing??
I don't know if they have heard of Deep Impact, but they certainly don't seem to have heard of Hayabusa, which will attempt to land on the asteroid Itokawa here in a month or so, and then attempt to return to earth with its samples:
Today's HAYABUSA
Last update 2005/08/04
| Distance from Earth : | 349,663,157km | ||||||||
| Distance from Itokawa : | 53,998km | ||||||||
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that's not what they meant.
it is a function of orbital mechanics.
they need to determine the window of the rock's orbit in which a small amount of delta-V would over time become magnified enough to nudge it's path away from near-Earth flyby.
if it has a low enough albedo, it might be a bit difficult to track using optics.
The NYT uses the same logic when dealing with science that they do when dealing with politics.
No. Major beginnings or conclusions of space projects are timed to coincide with holidays to make them a bit more memorable.
Remember that Pathfinder/Sojourner landed on Mars on July 4th, 1997...during the second term of Komrade Klinton.
The author is probably a liberal arts grad, so it's all supernatural to him. ;)
Even though we have quite a bit of data on it we can't yet predict the orbit to the needed precision to rule in or out a 2036 hit. We need to predict the miss distance within 600 meters. Best current predictions are that the available earth based (Hubble can't help here) future observations probably won't improve our orbit enough to know before the 2029 pass whether 2036 will be a hit. Placing a radio beacon on it would give us enough data to know before 2029. In any case we will know soon after the 2029 pass whether the 2036 pass will hit. Moving the asteroid to avoid a 2036 collision would be much easier before the 2029 pass than after it, requiring just 0.01% as much energy. The early fix is likely possible in time; the late fix may be beyond our ability then.
Timing may become an issue. Can we expect NASA and the rest of the government to pull off a massive emergency space mission in seven years? From JFK to the moon took nine. First, I'd advise letting the astronomers firm up their predictions. If they expect enough data from earth based sources to arrive in time, than wait for that. If there's a good chance we won't learn enough that way than this looks like a great target for one of the unmanned space missions that NASA would likely budget anyway. Tag it with a radio beacon and do whatever other science can be added to the mission for a reasonable price. Than we'll know whether or not to panic while we can still move the dang thing out of our way. In parallel (I hope) to the above I endorse efforts to develop, and test on some orbitally safe asteroid, the technology needed to move a bad one. We're sure to need it someday, our technology is probably up to it and the cost is cheap by the standards of pork on Capital Hill.
Chance of impact now 1/5500.
NASA response to B612 Foundation regarding asteroid 99942 Apophis
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