Hurricane Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 20 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Rita is in the Florida Straits, impacting the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for numerous portions of South Florida. Check local weather statements for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

WTVJ-TV/DT Miami (NBC6)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (CBS 4)
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (Fox)

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[Howlin]

Done.

[Jaded]

major suckage, it's getting worse/stronger

[Fawn]

Thanks all...

[Sammie42]

thanks, great map, I am in SE alabama..I needed a good map of Florida!

[Flyer]

Worst interchange EVER

Beltway 8 / I-10 interchange trivial info. . . I roller skated on that section at the opening ceremony. I believe the Bangles were the performing band.

[queenkathy]

Can I be added to the Hurricane Ping List? Thanks...

[Sally'sConcerns]

I had to commute to Houston from Dallas for six months..I would drive up here to Dallas every weekend...

Yep, every blade of grass and then there's the old game of "I'm in Centervillie, only xx miles to Buffalo and then only xx miles to ....and so on."

[NautiNurse]

Got it

[texianyankee]

Back in September 1988, I lived just outside of Corpus Christi when Hurrican Gilbert was bearing down.

I went to San Antonio - only it ended up more dangerous there because of all the tornadoes.

[Quilla]

You're quite welcome. Hey, I'm in SE Alabama too!

[shield]

[Elle Bee]

the worst of the storm is on us (Key West) now and it's not nearly as bad as the last two ... not nearly as much rain

..... no power ..... but no problem

we should be at the Schooner Wharf for a cocktail before six

Prayers for all of those in Rita's path

.

Locals flock to Grotto as storms nears
BY TRACI C. RORK

Citizen Staff

KEY WEST - In one of the most hurricane vulnerable cities in North America, it doesn't take new residents long to learn about the city's secret for deflecting tropical storms - The Grotto.

A shrine fashioned after the famous grotto at Lourdes, France, it was built at the direction of Sister M. Louis Gabriel three years after the 1919 hurricane killed more than 800 people in the Florida Keys.

Gabriel, who had lived through three destructive hurricanes, built the grotto and dedicated it to Our Lady of Lourdes and St. Bernadette. She did so with the hopes and prayers that the island would escape devastation from future storms. So far, it has worked.

Knowing that the community has flocked to the Grotto since 1922, the congregation held a 5 p.m. Mass there Monday to pray for safety.

For Jo Anne Robertson and Janis Scholfield, both Duffy's Restaurant employees, lighting a candle at the grotto is an integral part of their preparations.

"It's always worked for me," Scholfield said while completing her ritual, and her confidence is present in the hearts of many grotto visitors.

With what was then Tropical Storm Rita quickly approaching, even those closest to God were buying batteries.

"Oh my gosh," the Rev. Francisco J. Hernandez-Arenas of St. Mary Star of The Sea Catholic Church said early Monday afternoon when he finally sat down. "I just got back from buying supplies and heard the storm could reach Category 3 strength; we're still cleaning up from Hurricane Katrina."

After the grotto service, the church will close and board up like the rest of the Keys and wait, or evacuate depending on how things progress.

Father Paco Hernandez, as he's affectionately called, said he will be staying for the storm despite Mayor Jimmy Weekley's warnings, but many of the church employees will be evacuating.

"I have been here for three and a half years and want to be here to help after the storm," Hernandez said.

trork@keysnews.com

.

[hawkk]

Just wondering, what do you have against the King Ranch. When they were in PA it was gorgeous!

[dirtboy]

What does it mean when they the pressure of milibars drop?

The storm is strengthening.

Think of a shop-vac when you shift the switch from low suction to high suction.

[Sammie42]

Dothan, fairly new resident, been here two years. Have learned to hurricane watch, always follow the threads!

[NautiNurse]

WooHoo! You go girl...thanks for checking in. Take care.

[brothers4thID]

I'm just snarling wordlessly at the computer.

[raygun]

I don't know man. The 12Z GFS shows at 72hrs out the 200 mb high pressure dome capping Rita in the SE quad of the 850mb warm core low. The pronounced zonal flow streaming E from the Yucatan Penninsula across the Bay of Compeche indicated in the NGP 12Z run at 72hrs to be almost nonexistant. The GFS 12Z model at 72hrs shows a pronounced 200mb trough forecast to descend out of New Mexico, that in conjuction with the 200mb high pressure cap, will force Rita NNW. The 12Z GFS is intimating landfall plausible E of Houston to W of NO.

NGP on the other hand, shows the high pressure cap to the NE quadrant of the warm core low. The steering winds are directly south (the previously indicated strong zonal flow E-W from Yucatan Penninsula across Bay of Compeche directly bisecting Mexico). The GFS trough isn't shown at all. The predominant feature is a massive high pressure system (extending as far north as MI, WI, and the Dakotas), the center of which is the warm core low high pressure cap. According the NGP, Rita will take a deep SW track before turning radically and sharply NW, making landfall near Brownsville (possbily even south if it).

There's way too much divergence in those two models for any sense of confidence. I think we have to watch and see if any sense of convergence firms up in the 00Z models. But I'm pretty sure that by the NEXT 12Z run, things should be pretty clear one way or another.

GFS isn't showing any stalling in GOM either, but significant intensification. Without any attenuation of the GFS model, a Cat 3 minimum landfall in LA is entirely plausible (perhaps even as early as Fri night - late). In contrast, a Brownsville landfall looks Cat 2 according to NGP (early morning Sat).

[LikeLight]

Tornados breaking out around Florida, up and down, east and west . . .