Category 3 Hurricane Rita
Winds 120 mph, pressure 956mb, moving west near 14 mph.
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Posted on 09/21/2005 1:36:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.
Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.
Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA
Additional Resources:
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18
Please cite sources for information.
Category 3 Hurricane Rita
Winds 120 mph, pressure 956mb, moving west near 14 mph.
...Major category three Rita moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and continuing to strengthen...
at 5 am EDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the Florida Keys is discontinued east of the Marquesas Keys...including Key West. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the Marquesas Keys westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rita.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 24.3 north...longitude 84.6 west or about 175 miles... 285 km...west of Key West Florida and about 160 miles... 255 km... west-northwest of Havana Cuba.
Rita is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center of Rita farther away from the Florida Keys over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher gusts. Rita is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Rita is expected to become a category four hurricane sometime later today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels is possible in the Tropical Storm Warning area. Storm surge flooding elsewhere in the Florida Keys and South Florida should subside today.
Rita is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches...with maximum amounts of 10 inches over the higher elevations...are possible over northwest Cuba. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...24.3 N... 84.6 W. Movement toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...120 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
First?
yep - how are you this morning?
Dear Lord......................
Yikes, 120mph already.
I'm going to go catch a nap - see you in a couple of hours (school bus arrives in 2.5 hours)
the reconnaissance mission scheduled for this morning was scrubbed due to electronics problems on multiple aircraft. However...before the eye went out of range of the velocity data from the Key West WSR-88D...winds of 100-115 kt were seen at between 9000-13000 ft. Additionally...satellite intensity estimates are 115 kt from all agencies. Based on this and extrapolation of trends from the last aircraft mission...the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt...and this may be conservative give the satellite appearance.
The initial motion is 275-280 degrees at 12 kt. Rita should continue to move generally westward for the next 36 hr or so on the south side of the strong deep-layer ridge over the northern Gulf Coast. Beyond that time...the large-scale models forecast the ridge to weaken and shift eastward...allowing a more northward motion. The models have come into somewhat better agreement on this run...as the GFS has shifted westward from its previous forecast...while the NOGAPS and GFDN have shifted northward from their south Texas landfall. The forecast track is close to the consensus models and the FSU superensemble...being nudged slightly north of the previous track during the first 48-72 hr and slightly westward thereafter with a landfall on the middle Texas coast in just over 72 hr. However...these changes are in the noise level.
The satellite signature of Rita gives every impression that rapid intensification is continuing...and while the equatorward outflow channel mentioned earlier is not as apparent now the poleward outflow channel is still going strong. Thus intensification could continue until a concentric eyewall cycle occurs or until the eye moves west of The Loop current in about 24 hr. The GFDL model peaks Rita at about 120 kt in 12-18 hr...the SHIPS model peaks it at 122 kt in 48 hr...and the superensemble peaks it at 131 kt in 48 hr. The intensity forecast will bring the system to 125 kt in 24 hr as a blend of these forecasts. However...it would not be a surprise if Rita became a category five hurricane in the next 24 hr before weakening somewhat due to a concentric eyewall cycle or the lower ocean heat content west of The Loop current. Rita should maintain major hurricane status until landfall...then weaken after landfall.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/0900z 24.3n 84.6w 105 kt 12hr VT 21/1800z 24.4n 86.5w 115 kt 24hr VT 22/0600z 24.7n 88.7w 125 kt 36hr VT 22/1800z 25.2n 90.8w 125 kt 48hr VT 23/0600z 25.9n 92.8w 125 kt 72hr VT 24/0600z 28.0n 95.5w 120 kt 96hr VT 25/0600z 31.5n 97.0w 50 kt...inland 120hr VT 26/0600z 35.5n 96.5w 25 kt...inland dissipating
Thanks for hanging in all night.
Dang, my internet connection has been crappy, crappy slow since yesterday afternoon.
I have a long day at work today. I think I have the boss convinced to call it off for Friday - now I think I need to talk him into calling it off for Thursday, too.
I may go hit a 24 hour grocery store in a little bit before I head off to work. I may not be back on the thread until this evening.
No problem, FRiend - will be back later this morning - but will have no choice but to bug out between 5-10pm tonight.
Thanks for the new thread.
Good idea for the pre-dawn shopping.
OH - BTW - decided to leave all the dishes and pans for hubby to do :)
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/gulfmex.c.gif (~ 68K)
How does Beven get the 5:00 A.M. Statement out before 5:00 A.M.?
It took a bit of time to transfer everything from FL/Atlantic to TX/GOM info.
Stay safe.
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