Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

This storm is going to hit New Orleans again - there's no way it's going to make a sharp right turn.

[green iguana]

She's outdone her sisters Katrina and Rita

882 now... But I think you've hit on the problem. It's all the girls that are doing this - time to name hurricanes after men only.

[VeniVidiVici]

I'm sure you have some reason for saying that. Probably not a good one, but some reason for sure.

[kx9088]

I dunno why I thought it was lower than that. Either way, Wilma looks to do some serious hell on earth stuff in a few days.

If I lived anywhere along the Gulf Coast right now, I would seriously be out of there already.

[eastforker]

True but my point is that I remember Bastardi Insisting Katrina would hit Florida even when it failed to turn. Lots of people tune into the news only once every few days or so. When forecasters give a matter of fact forecast, with out mentioning that anything can change, and that everyone needs to pay attention would keep people more aware. Yes, we here on FR do keep up to the minute with what is going on but many people do not, they only tune in to the news every other day or so.

[exhaustedmomma]

What was Gilbert's lowest pressure? 888? I thought it was lower than that?

Gilbert 888mb
Rita 897mb

[SamAdams76]

Joe Bastardi is dropping hints on his blog that we may have a "perfect storm" scenario for New England next Monday and Tuesday if everything comes together the right way (or wrong way depending on how you look at it).

With the saturation from the last 10 days of rains, that could be a catastrophic event up here.

In any event, New England could be setup for heavy rains even if Wilma doesn't hug the coast.

[jeeperz]

Morning Dog...

Naples here...a few miles from Bonita...getting nervous here and looks like our weather people are on edge as well.

Do you know what your folks in Bonita plan to do at this point?

Best to all of us in Wilma's path!

[topher]

In any event, New England could be setup for heavy rains even if Wilma doesn't hug the coast.

Maybe there is a positive side -- maybe H. Wilma will bring 80 degree temperatures with the storm... (I can hope!)

[SE Mom]

Not to be argumentative- but what do you base your prediction on? If we look at the weather to the west- there is a trough coming that will steer Wilma directly wnw as soon as she meets with it in the Gulf.

[tiredoflaundry]

What makes you think that?

[exhaustedmomma]

Remember, Katrina was supposed to hit the upper Florida coast, no where near NO. I live in Houston and I am filling gas cans today.

:::sigh::: me too!!!
still packed from Rita. Rita was a wierd storm. The cold front that was suppose to make it in didn't and caused that turn to Tx/La border. Also, damage on the west side of that storm was odd... more damage to Livingston than to Mansfield.

[Petronski]

I'll take the computer models over baseless claims from anonymous internet denizens.

[Dog]

Good luck..

[RoseyT]

"The confidence level of the front headed toward Texas right now and making it through in time to protect everyone west of Florida is about as close to 100% as you can get."

Just wanted to point out that the last cool front we got slowed down and didn't reach east TX until later than expected. Seems like it slowed down around DFW.

[sheikdetailfeather]

FR is slowing down with this hurricane a CAT 5 now. Local weather in Orlando says this storm is expected to weaken to a 2 or 3 before hitting land. (Shear from the cold front).

[jeeperz]

Thank you. I am out of here tomorrow - prior plans. Funny, when Charley headed here I headed out with prior plans as well. Maybe a bit of inner radar here.

Best to your Bonita family.

[SE Mom]

Yep- I figure here in the O town area we'll get some wind and rain..unless it follows Charley. Then we're in for it.

[janetjanet998]

yes..i posted about that yesterday more and more of the models are now forecasting that..a huge 2000 mile wide(in the mid levesls) superstorm just of the Northeast coast....even with snow in some places

That would be even a bigger story then a cat2/3 hitting FL(relativley speaking and obviosuly people in FL don't care as much about the NE)....no way that area can stand another huge rainfall on top of 80-100MPH winds..several dams are close to failing now

[eastforker]

We lost power for three days in Rita, local stores had no power and grocery store shelves were basicly bare. We had gas, generator, small window unit for bedroom and we made it OK. Am in the process of repairing/rebuilding a 600 gallon fuel tank for storage anticipating avian flu outbreak also. I will not be caught unprepared for that one.