Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 19 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma continues to alter the record books for the 2005 hurricane season. At 882mb, the storm became the strongest ever in the Atlantic basin. Previously, the lowest pressure recorded in the western hemisphere was from Hurricane Gilbert at 888mb in 1988.

Wilma's rapid intensification is the fastest on record, with a 95mb pressure drop resulting in increased strength from Tropical Storm to Category Five hurricane within 24 hours.

The current forecast predicts a brush with the Yucatan Peninsula, at or near Category 5 status, followed by a turn toward the Southwest Florida Coast. Tourists in the Florida Keys were ordered to leave at noon Wednesday.

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said Wednesday the state has already begun to pre-stage relief supplies, such as ice and water. Pentagon officials said Wednesday the Navy has placed three ships on standby if Wilma makes landfall in the United States. They said the storm was still too far out to evacuate bases.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[NautiNurse]

Per usual, please limit graphics to <50KB. No animated graphics or webcams. Please post links. Thanks!

[steveegg]

Bookmark.

[Sally'sConcerns]

1st?

[steveegg]

(In my best Maxwell Smart voice)Missed it by thismuch :-)

[Deetes]

Here we go again !!!!!

[NautiNurse]

New thread

Movement toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 894 mb.

[NautiNurse]

New thread

Movement toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 894 mb.

[Sally'sConcerns]

4 whole seconds apart and I have an excuse...I've also been celebrating the Astro's going to the World Series!!!

[alancarp]

Sure - you can be first. I'll stop in to thank the Nurse for her dilligence and to mark this for reference this weekend. Until then, the big questions seem to be these:

(1) Does the Yucatan get hit hard, and if so, does that suck the energy out of Wilma?
(2) Depending on the answer to number 1, how hard does Florida get hit?
(3) When does Florida get hit? and
(4) How many landfalls will there be? (Yucatan? Fla? Hatteras? Cape Cod?)

[neodad]

And, last but not least: How do I get my FEMA card?

[steveegg]

Congrats. I do, however, have bad news for you; they don't call Garner Scrap Iron because he can manage properly. He washed out of Milwaukee when the Brewers were an AL franchise.

[RegulatorCountry]

"(4) How many landfalls will there be? (Yucatan? Fla? Hatteras? Cape Cod?)"

Mid Atlantic's long overdue for one ... brush with Hatteras, veering into upper DelMarVa and then south Jersey?

[Torie]

There are two possibilities that could make large differences in the intensity of Wilma. The first is the possibility of landfall over Yucatan or the interaction with the peninsula in the forecast close approach. A landfall would result in a weaker storm...while interaction could weaken the system more than currently forecast. The second is possible extratropical transition and phasing with the deep trough after 96 hr. Should this happen...Wilma could become a powerful storm either over the western Atlantic or the northeastern U. S.

The bold bit makes it cystal clear, not. Some weather nerd got ahold of the keyboard, and just let loose. LOL.

[alancarp]

Sorry - can't get one until a month after the storm.

[Black Tooth]

Another hurricane?

Crazy!

[miele man]

Thanks again, NN, for keeping us posted. Don't you live in the area where this "thing" is supposed to make landfall (if forecasts hold)? I hope not.

I just finished doing some roof repair work in anticipation of any rains we may get here in Panama City Beach. I only had to do repair on a 30 foot strip and it took two days. I watched today, slack jawed, as five guys showed up to re-roof a two story house across the street from me. They did the whole house in one day. I'm still not through but my back, heiny and hamstring muscles, plus knees, are letting me know about it. LOL.

[Torie]

In some census tracts, it should be in plastic, and carried in one's wallet at all times. There is a case to be made to return some of those census tracts back to the gators. In any event, subsidized flood insurance, should be job last.

[Sally'sConcerns]

We'll see about the bad news! I've been waiting for them to get into the playoff's since they were the Colt 45's. So I'm going to enjoy the excitement of getting there for today!

[steveegg]

Amateur explanation of that bold part - Wilma could merge with the big low coming off the Great Lakes at the end of the weekend (think Daughter of The Perfect Storm).

[Stayingawayfromthedarkside]

I just heard on our local news our dimwit gov. in D.C. rail about the fed's response to Katrina. I wish the Dems would get off their soapbox.