Posted on 12/09/2005 9:58:03 AM PST by RWR8189
December 9, 2005--Virginia Senator George Allen (R) and outgoing Governor Mark Warner (D) are both mentioned as serious contenders for their party's Presidential nomination. If both capture their party nominations, Warner holds a slight edge in the race for home state bragging rights and Virginia's Electoral Votes.
The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Virginia shows Warner the favorite for 49% of the state's Likely Voters while Allen is the choice of 44%. Warner leads by 12 among women while Allen has a two-point edge among male voters.
Crosstabs and other information is available for Premium Members. Other survey data shows Allen with a huge lead in his bid for re-election to the Senate.
Allen is viewed favorably by 67% of the state's voters. For Warner, the figure is 71%.
Forty-one percent (41%) of Virginia voters believe Warner should run for the White House. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about Allen.
Rasmussen Reports has launched our ElectionEdgeTM Premium Service for Election 2006 to bring you the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a mid-term election.
During Election 2006, Rasmussen Reports will poll at least once a month in every Senate and Governors' race. Coverage will include more frequent measurement of competitive races.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Polls like this do not help Allen, if he can't win his home state he is toast.
VA will be the new Ohio/ will be the New Florida.
But does any other Republican besides George Allen have the potential to beat Mark Warner in Virginia?
If it's Warner vs. Allen, Ohio is already lost in our column, and the keys to the WH could lie there. The kind of Democrat who could even make Virginia an actual battleground is really bad news for us. Let's hope Hillary makes sure he gets on one of her customized planes.
It's time to face the facts. Virginia is becoming a solidly blue state due to the toxic waste spillover from DC.
After 2004, I'm starting to believe that Virginia always polls deceptively high for the Democrat, just as New Jersey always polls deceptively high for the Republican. Remember how Kerry thought he was going to win the state, and ended up doing almost as badly there as the rest of the South?
I am not nearly as skeptical about polls as most people here so this is a rare complaint from me.
I don't think Ohio is lost.
Blackwell will win govenorship in 2006, and the whole unpleasantness of Taft and "Coingate" should be behind us by 2008.
Warner being a favorite son in Virginia makes it a special circumstance IMHO, I don't think any other Democrat would stand a chance in VA.
I agree with that, but the nomination is going to Hillary by decree of the NY Times nomenklatura.
The problem with Mark Warner is that he is confused with Senator John Warner.
Allen wins easy in Virginia.
Yes, the liberal influence is creeping in. But that is NOT why Tim Kaine won, nor is it why Mark Warner is popular.
Warner accomplished one thing - raising taxes. The media and the RINOs allowed (and enabled) him to spin that like it was a necessity, when all along we knew it wasn't. There was NEVER a budget crisis. Warner has no other significant accomplishments. But he's a nice guy, so he remains popular.
Tim Kaine won because of Mark Warner's popularity and because Jerry Kilgore, like Mark Earley before him, made major campaign mistakes. But the difference this time is that Kaine is Not AbleTM to "lead" as Warner has done. He's just not that good and within a year's time or less, everyone will know that.
The campaign hasn't begun yet. Most people in the state aren't even aware that there's a Senate election next year, much less paying attention to the fact that Allen and Warner want to run for President.
Finally, remember that these same polling outfits and media were telling us that John Kerry was going to take Virginia in 2004, up until after the polls closed. Bush took the state by almost 9 percent.
Don't forget the spillover from New England. Massachusetts is LOSING population FASTER than any other state in the Union. Where they are going is the question...
"Finally, remember that these same polling outfits and media were telling us that John Kerry was going to take Virginia in 2004, up until after the polls closed. Bush took the state by almost 9 percent."
CORRECT. Why get excited about polls in december of 05 about an election in 08? Most Americans are trying to figure out how to put a Christmas toy together for one of the kids. They are going to Grandma's house for dinner and singing "Jingle Bells". Do you really think they give a fat rat's as$ about a hypothetical Presidential race between two guys who probably won't even be the final nominees?
Merry Christmas, and I hope hoho dean keeps running at the mouth.
It's the home state of both candidates in the poll. Allen would be the best chance at carrying Virginia if Warner got the Democrat nomination. Otherwise, it is a huge, automatic loss to the GOP electoral base.
Yes, the liberal influence is creeping in.
Common sense bump!
A lot of things will happen between now and election day in 2008 and it is really hard to foresee the situation at that time. Whether Warner could beat Hillary for the nomination remains to be seen, but even if he does win the nomination, he may have had to take so many left-wing positions to get through the primaries that he will have turned off a lot of Virginia voters.
Allen is signing on to too many RINO positions. He needs to get out and defense the Bush administration. He needs to get mean...if he can.
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