Posted on 02/13/2006 9:42:04 PM PST by mnwo
GA 8: Marshall, Collins Gear Up for Fight on Unfamiliar Turf
Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall easily won a second term in 2004, trouncing the Republican who had nearly beaten him two years earlier. But Marshall is expected to face a much tougher contest this year.
Marshall’s near-certain Republican opponent is former Republican Rep. Mac Collins (1993-2005), who is looking to rejoin Congress after he surrendered his House seat in 2004 to pursue a Senate campaign that failed in the GOP primary.
Collins is expected to wage a more competitive campaign against Marshall than 2004 nominee Calder Clay, who lost by 26 percentage points in a rematch of a 2002 campaign that Marshall won by just one percentage point.
GOP strategists are bullish about 2006 because Marshall will be opposed by a more seasoned politician in Collins, who served as a county commissioner and state senator prior to his election to the House in 1992. What’s more, Marshall’s central Georgia district was redrawn by the GOP-controlled state legislature last year to have a stronger Republican lean.
In the 2004 election, President Bush received 56 percent of the vote in Marshall’s present district, which is numbered the 3rd. Ryan Johnson, Collins’ campaign manager, said Bush was preferred by 61 percent of the voters in the reconfigured district — which was renumbered the 8th.
“The new district is a Republican district,” Johnson said.
Yet analysts say Marshall has effectively cultivated an image as a conservative-leaning Democrat. Marshall, a Vietnam veteran, has emphasized the need for a strong military and protecting veterans’ benefits and local agriculture.
Marshall votes against his party’s leaders more often than most Democrats. In 2005, only four other House Democrats scored lower than Marshall on a Congressional Quarterly “party unity” tally that measures the frequency with which members of Congress side with their party on near party-line votes.
Marshall was among the Democrats who voted with most Republicans last year to overhaul energy policy and the Endangered Species Act and tighten national standards for state driver’s licenses and identity cards. Marshall also has voted for a constitutional amendment to give Congress the power to ban desecration of the American flag, and for a ban on an abortion technique that opponents call “partial-birth” abortion.
“He’s got an accurate assessment of what his district is like and framed his behavior to meet those expectations,” said Charles Bullock, a political scientist at the University of Georgia. “He’s staked a fairly conservative voting record . . . and carefully disassociated himself from the national Democratic Party.”
But Collins’ campaign is seeking to paint Marshall as a faux conservative, pointing to votes that included an opposition to a permanent repeal of the estate tax.
“He’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing,” Johnson said, adding that Marshall “pretends to be a conservative.”
Marshall might be more strongly favored this year if he were seeking re-election in his current 3rd, which takes in Macon — where Marshall once was mayor — and substantial rural territory. In the new 8th District, more than 40 percent of the residents are new to Marshall.
Marshall’s campaign acknowledged that the congressman must acquaint himself with many new constituents, but said he was up to the task.
“There’s a lot of new voters that [Marshall is] working to introduce himself to, but he takes it on with a lot of pleasure,” said communications director Doug Moore.
Collins must also bolster his name identification within the district: He represented several counties in the new district only in his final two years in office.
One challenge for Marshall is the 8th’s smaller percentage of racial minorities compared to the current 3rd. Bullock says the new map reduced the percentage of minorities in the district to 30 percent from 40 percent.
“Thirty percent black is somewhat of a threshold,” Bullock said. “Above that you’re certain to see Democratic success, but below it is consistent with Republican success.”
Collins has stayed competitive with Marshall in fundraising. Marshall reported raising $774,000 and had $859,000 cash on hand through the end of December, compared to Collins’ $702,000 in receipts and $542,000 cash on hand.
Neither Collins nor Marshall is expected to face any serious opposition in the July 18 primary. Prospective candidates have until April 28 to enter the race.
Mac Collins? Bull. He was the most conservative in the senate primary with Cain and Isakson, I voted for Collins.
But Georgia's 8th district is represented by Lynn Westmoreland. Either I'm confused or this thing meant the third districe.
No Marshall is pure liberal and he only vote with the GOP when it will make press at home.
Redistricting
districe=district
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