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Following the Election Returns [Hour by Hour Guide]
Opinion Journal ^ | November 7, 2006 | John Fund

Posted on 11/07/2006 4:41:39 AM PST by RobFromGa

This year the networks say they are guarding their exit poll results as if they were crown jewels. The results will be delivered to a "quarantine room," access to which will be granted to only two staffers from each network...

Given that the longer election night might not suit everyone's bedtime, I've prepared an hour-by-hour guide to tonight's results...

All times are Eastern. In a bow to tradition, we've listed states that went for George W. Bush two years ago in red and those that went for John Kerry in blue. The letters after state names indicate governor and senate races, with the incumbent party in the appropriate color (independents in black).

6 p.m.

Polls close in these two states at 6 p.m. local time, which means the eastern portions will end voting at 6 EST. The key races in both states will be a bevy of close House races featuring GOP incumbents.

In Indiana, three GOP House incumbents have been trailing their Democratic challengers in October polls, albeit with survey samples so small the margin of error is large. Watch Rep. Mike Sodrel in the Ninth District. If he wins, it will mean it's unlikely Republicans will face a huge Democratic wave and lose 30 seats or more. If Rep. Chris Chocola in the Second District should survive, the GOP may wind up losing 20 seats or fewer. If Rep. John Hostettler also comes home to victory in the Eighth District, there is a good chance the GOP will retain its House majority. Indiana's Senate race isn't competitive; Republican Dick Lugar will easily win a sixth term.

Kentucky has two barn burners. Republican Rep. Anne Northup has held Louisville's Third District for five terms...

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; elections; midterm; vote2006
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A Guide to the Early Election Show View All of The Ballot Box Posts

What to look for tonight as the polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern/ 5 p.m. Central / 4 p.m. Mountain/ 3 p.m. Pacific


Three US House races are the major focus here which should be the first big indicator on whether Republicans can keep the House.

2nd CD - In 2004, GOP Congressman Chris Chocola defeated Democrat Joe Donnelly by 54%-45%. This time in a rematch, polls show the race close but with Donnelly ahead. To win, Donnelly needs to pile up a good lead in normally Democratic South Bend (St Joseph County) and Michigan City (La Porte County). If he wins 60% in both these counties (which have a majority of the district’s votes) he should be the first Democrat pickup of the evening, but less than 55% probably means the Republicans can save their first threatened incumbent with votes from heavily Republican Elkhart County and other rural counties.

8th CD - A 1994 charter member of the Republican revolution, Congressman John Hostettler always wins but barely in this district by winning almost all the district’s rural counties usually by over 60%. His opponent this time is Vanderburgh County (Evansville) Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Usually close, Vanderburgh County should give Ellsworth at least 55% for him to be in contention. If he breaks 60%, it means another Democrat pickup in a district where most polls show Hostettler in trouble.

9th CD - Polls predict a very close race where freshman Republican Mike Sodrel unseated Democrat incumbent Baron Hill in 2004 by less than one percentage point.

Hill is back again for a rematch in a race where President Bush made a major campaign stop for Sodrel. To win, Hill needs to pile up a 20 point win again in the liberal university town of Bloomington ( Monroe County). Another key area is the Louisville suburban river counties of Clark and Floyd which last time split evenly. If Hill wins here by more than 55% the race is probably over. If it is close again, then it will be a long night as it was last time when this was the last US House race decided.


Like Indiana, there are no major statewide races in Kentucky so the action is mainly in three US House seats where Democrats think they have a chance to unseat Republican incumbents.

2nd CD - GOP Congressman Ron Lewis has had little trouble winning re-election since he won a 1994 special election in what was once a heavily Democrat but conservative district (Owensboro – Bowling Green). That election was a major sign that Republicans would win control over the House in 1994 after 40 years, and should Lewis be behind tonight it would mean the opposite - that Democrats would definitely win the House back.

For some reason, the experts think that Democrat Mike Weaver has a chance to win here. Weaver, an Army veteran who refers to himself as “the Colonel,” has tried to prove his conservative credentials by refusing to commit himself to voting for House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and even went so far as to call Republican leaders (who knew about inappropriate e-mails sent to pages by Rep. Mark Foley) as “very liberal people” who “showed a very liberal tendency from some of the leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives.”

3rd CD - Polls show GOP Congresswoman Anne Northup in a tight race for re-election in her Louisville metro district which usually supports Democrats. Northup has usually had a tough fight here except in 2004 when she easily defeated Democrat county circuit court clerk Tony Miller by over 60%. This time she faces alternative newspaper publisher John Yarmuth who is well known but has many controversial liberal views in his column.

Results should come in fast from Jefferson County (Louisville).

4th CD - Last minute polls showed Republican Geoff Davis finally leading in his race against retired Democrat Congressman Ken Lucas who somehow held this conservative district (Louisville suburbs – Ohio River counties) from 1998-2004. Lucas represented this district by refusing to vote for Nancy Pelosi in past elections for House Speaker. Davis then won the seat in 2004 after losing to Lucas in 2002. Lucas (despite his past disloyalty to Pelosi) was recruited to run here by Democrats who will do anything to win this year.

To win, Lewis needs to win by 55% or more the Ohio River Cincinnati suburban counties (Boone, Campbell and Kenton) as well as win by 60%plus in the Louisville exurban county (Oldham). Here most of the smaller counties are ancestrally Democratic rural counties which Lucas has won in the past including the coal mining area of Elliott County.

If Democrats win four of the five above districts they are well on their way to winning the US House. If they win two or less it should be a long night.

181 posted on 11/07/2006 11:57:33 AM PST by RobFromGa (The GOP will retain the Senate and House in 2006- Let's Do Something With It!)
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To: rightazrain

Congrats and thanks to all you Freepers getting out and voting. Any Freepers still thinking of sitting it out?
Don't you dare....much is at stake....go vote today and be a hero...not a zero.

182 posted on 11/07/2006 11:57:37 AM PST by tflabo (Take authority that's ours)
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To: conservativeinferno
Heavy rainstorms in parts of the Tampa Bay area ongoing now. Weatherman says nastier stuff on the way. May or may not clear up before the polls close, but it doesn't look like it. Really strong downpour.

I voted at 7 AM. Moderate to low crowd while I was there. The seniors will be turning out to vote to increase their homestead exemptions from $25,000 to $50,000 (one of the amendments). This is a heavy retirement area. Lots of retired New York and New Joisey transplants. They are NOT conservatives.

To boot, most of the seniors are lividly ticked at the homeowners' insurance hikes and will take it out on the Republicans just because Jeb is a Republican.

The rest of the codgers still want to vote for FDR no matter what the office is.


183 posted on 11/07/2006 11:58:09 AM PST by MinuteGal (Florida Freepers, keep up with FL politics & freeps on our state forum. To access it, freepmail me.)
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To: Coop

What's your prediction on Irey-Murtha, Coop?

184 posted on 11/07/2006 11:58:26 AM PST by RobFromGa (The GOP will retain the Senate and House in 2006- Let's Do Something With It!)
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To: tflabo

Just voted in Falls Church, Virginia, number 662 of 1,300 registered in the precinct -- that's pretty heavy, and this is probably 60/40 Dem country...

185 posted on 11/07/2006 12:00:24 PM PST by Interesting Times (ABCNNBCBS -- yesterday's news.)
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To: RobFromGa; Coop

apologies for going off topic, but I was wondering if anyone can recall any recent media comments by Josh Bolton? It's like he's gone underground...somewhat unusual for a WHCOS during an election..

186 posted on 11/07/2006 12:01:19 PM PST by ken5050
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To: RobFromGa
Ya got me. Having been on the ground there over the weekend, I'm quite encouraged by the yard signs and pretty encouraged by the volunteer activity. Didn't see much in the way of support for Murtha, overall.

I still like her chances of pulling the upset tonight.

187 posted on 11/07/2006 12:01:45 PM PST by Coop (FR = a lotta talk, but little action)
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To: LoneGOPinCT

It's really sad that we didn't really have a candidate to vote for in Connecticut. Schlessinger would have been my choice had he not personally scammed money out of a friend of mine when he was having his will drawn up. I have hated Lieberman since I became politically aware. Now I have to be satisfied if (when) he wins.

188 posted on 11/07/2006 12:01:56 PM PST by CT102ndInfSister (I'm so proud of my big brother - currently stationed with the Army in Afghanistan)
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To: RobFromGa

Good analysis. Now I know which House races to focus on..

189 posted on 11/07/2006 12:03:20 PM PST by cardinal4
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To: Coop

From your fingers to God's ears Coop...Go Diana Irey. Beat that fool traitor Murtha.

190 posted on 11/07/2006 12:04:44 PM PST by tflabo (Take authority that's ours)
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To: tflabo

She raised over 3/4 of a million dollars, with no help from the Republican Party. That speaks highly of the excitement for her campaign.

191 posted on 11/07/2006 12:06:09 PM PST by Coop (FR = a lotta talk, but little action)
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To: RobFromGa
According to a moonbat, Dewine has conceded before the vote counting?

I don't see it.

192 posted on 11/07/2006 12:06:35 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: LoneGOPinCT
I'd vote for a pile of dog $h!t before I voted for Farrell.

LOL! A distinction without a difference. (I live in Westport....I loathe the woman!)

193 posted on 11/07/2006 12:08:11 PM PST by tsmith130
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To: MinuteGal
Heavy rainstorms in parts of the Tampa Bay area ongoing now...We just got that in St. Pete also, but about 30 minutes earlier (before the heavy rain settled in) we saw Katherine Harris and an energetic band of smiling supporters at a busy intersection near Tyrone Mall. We gave her a big thumbs up, although we'll need quite a few more thumbs to win. If enthusiasm could win it, she'd be in for sure.
194 posted on 11/07/2006 12:09:52 PM PST by TheCornerOffice
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To: steadcom


195 posted on 11/07/2006 12:12:53 PM PST by joyce11111
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Terry McAuliffe just predicted 25-40 seat gain in the House on FNC, and a 6 seat gain in the Senate. He also says "there will be hearings from the generals, because they've not been heard". Can't way to see him come back on tomorrow when reality drops on him.

196 posted on 11/07/2006 12:18:40 PM PST by billiamy (my blogs: and
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To: RobFromGa

One other thing to remember: IGNORE THE EXIT POLLS.

We should NOT declare winners or losers until the actual ballot counts come in.

197 posted on 11/07/2006 12:19:18 PM PST by Heartofsong83
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To: beckysueb

A freeper from Tampa said that the local paper explained this as a last minute agenda change where Crist needed to be at another venue to pick up additional votes; and not a slap at W.

198 posted on 11/07/2006 12:26:56 PM PST by sarasota
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To: RobFromGa

Caught that did ya??? I was going to give you a refresher on how many seats are in the House. At any rate, why not go all the way??? 435 R - 0 D Boy, wouldn't it be great???
Sigh....well, now we have to get back to reality.

199 posted on 11/07/2006 12:32:34 PM PST by rjmeagle (Conservatives= "God, Country & Family"!!!)
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To: Screamname

I'm in NY also.

I haven't voted yet because I don't feel so good. But I'll get there, even though it's hopeless against Hillary.

I have to get out and vote for Pete King, LI

200 posted on 11/07/2006 12:33:15 PM PST by Collier
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