I think the exact opposite is most likely (I work in mutual funds). The threat of inflation is too great right now that the Fed can't afford to lower rates for some time. The housing market is affecting the aggregate market, making the situation worse.
I happened to read a USA Today article this morning about this very issue.
I don't play the rates watch usually. If the rates are up, the values are down and vis a versa. Doesn't that make the payment in the same range?
Intuitively speaking, I would agree that the Fed is not about to lower rates. There would be some serious implications wrt the dollar and plenty of other things.
But the mortgage market is far more controlled by the MBS (mort backed securities) market than directly by the ten-year yield, even tho the ten-year is often cited as the "benchmark". And counter to my every instinct, the sheer amount of liquidity being forced into the economy (aka the "hunt for yield") is having the effect of driving up the price of bonds which lowers their yields. All this money is desperately searching for a home. The spread between corporates and treasuries remains very narrow. In effect, bond buyers are grabbing riskier and riskier instruments which makes Treasuries look even better. I don't understand it, but I do see it. That's why IMO, rates will drift just a skosh lower. Not much. Not even half a point, IMO. So, I would say, if folks are in the market for a refi, they should take good note of where rates are now and where they go post-FOMC Wednesday. I believe the next say two months or so could well offer the best rates to be seen for a while.