Posted on 02/16/2007 5:58:43 AM PST by PDR
To echo the famous Negro League pitcher Satchel Paige: “Don’t look back, Newt Gingrich might be gaining on you.” Newt, consigned by many observers to Elizabeth Dole or Dan Quayle status in this GOP nominating process, appears to be moving up into contention, overtaking former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and battling to be the conservative alternative to either former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Arizona Sen. John McCain.
To grasp what’s happening, don’t think of states like New Hampshire or Iowa or worry whether it’s too early or too late. The key to following the Republican presidential nominating process this year is to recognize its essential similarity to the tennis’s U.S. Open at Forest Hills. There are quarter-finals, semi-finals, and finals.
In the quarter-finals, the center and the right each sort out the nominees to choose their candidate. On center court, Giuliani seems to be gaining a decisive lead over McCain’s impoverished presidential campaign. But on the right-hand court, unnoticed by most pundits, Gingrich seems to be building a lead over Romney and a host of conservative wannabes. The ultimate winner of the Giuliani/McCain quarter-final will face the winner of the Gingrich/Romney match-up in the semi-finals.
As McCain drops in the polls — he’s down to 22 percent while Rudy is up at 34 percent in the latest Fox News poll — some conservatives seem eager for a “real Republican” to challenge for the nomination. Their first choice, former Virginia Sen. George Allen, lies a-moldering in the grave and his runner-up, former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, has gone home to Tennessee.
Most observers assumed that Romney would fill the void. But he doesn’t seem to have been able to do so. It may be a racist refusal to vote for a Mormon or, more charitably, Romney’s flip-flop-flip from pro-life to pro-choice to pro-life, or it may have been his inconsistency on gay issues, but Mitt seems to be going the way of his father — out of contention. The Fox News poll, which recorded a surge to up to 8 percent of the GOP vote in its Dec. 5-6 tally, now has Romney dropping back to only 3 percent of the vote.
Enter Newt. Hungry for new ideas and desperate after losing Congress, Republican voters seem to be rallying to the only real genius in the race — the former Speaker. The statute of limitations seems to have expired on his personal scandals and Gingrich is striking a responsive chord among conservatives.
Fox News’s Jan. 30-31 survey had Newt leaving Romney way behind and challenging McCain for second place. The former Speaker’s vote share was 15 percent, giving him third place in the current standings.
Episodically, I just addressed a 450-person Lincoln Day dinner of the Lane County Republican Party in Eugene, Ore. A show of hands brought these results: Giuliani, 50 percent; Gingrich, 30 percent; McCain, 6 percent; Romney, 4 percent. A few days before, a speech to an Orlando investors group produced similar results.
But, as the slogan of the New York State Lottery goes: “You can’t win if you don’t play.” Newt’s current posture of waiting until the fall of 2007 to see how the process sorts itself out won’t work. The process abhors a vacuum. If Gingrich doesn’t move out to respond to the affection of the GOP base, one of the minor-leaguers — Huckabee, Brownback, Gilmore, Thompson, Hunter or Tancredo — will.
The irony of the GOP field at the moment is that while most Republicans are conservatives, the two frontrunners — Rudy and McCain — are moderates. And this isn’t Nelson Rockefeller’s Republican Party anymore! Gingrich is filling a real political need and if he moves out smartly and files his paperwork, takes his announcement bows, and journeys to Iowa and New Hampshire as a candidate, he might well be a contender.
Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of “Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.” To get all of Dick Morris’s and Eileen McGann’s columns for free by email, go to www.dickmorris.com.
yup, good ol' Newt left the House in disgrace. What better person to represent the republican party. After all the republican party is pretty much a disgrace into itself. I guess humping your staff doesn't reflect on one's character. Fact it, Newt has the moral of Bill Clinton.
Good morning onyx. Newt will not listen to Morris. He is much more intelligent than Morris and doesn't need him to make a decision.
Reagan wasn't a milquetoast.
I said this on a thread a few weeks ago:
You listen to Newt and are amazed at how great his ideas are, until you realize: "Hey, we don't have any matter/energy transporters!"
Newt wouldn't be a bad choice. Better than the anointed one.
Good morning to you as well. Got any storms brewing in TX? Awfully cold here --- 30 degrees.
No storms in the Dallas area. The panhandle (Lubbock) gets hit the worst. It will be near 50 today and getting better in the next 5 days.
(I’m cooking lunch so I haven’t been able to get back to you until now.)
I am glad you are for Newt, but you need to tighten your belt (man or woman).
The presidents you mentioned (ex and present) were and are on other peoples payrolls which are not “us the people.”
Don’t be so beaten down by facts you imagined or read that are out there about folks fearing his intellect and being too conservative. Catch the big wave and join the rest of us. Don’t cave in.
You summed up your loyalty with the dedication to your wife in your book 'To Renew America' before you divorced her.
"To Marianne, who made it all worthwhile"
This is all about renewing Gingrich to whatever loyalty currently owns him.
..in order to mend fences with religious conservatives, Newt would have to give an accounting of some of his dirty laundry that, IMO, could not withstand the scrutiny...
?!
After being treated rather badly as Speaker, Newt may not want the top slot. And he is something of a plus and generally acceptable to all party factions.
I don't think he wants the presidency, and he would make an incredible vp... let's hope we are right.
What I am trying to say is…don’t let the turkeys get you down. Learn to soar with the eagles. Think positive, and act in accordance. Put that negativism in the trash. It will only make you ill.
My best regards.
in which case, why worry about how many democrats come out because no republicans would show up??????
Me too, I hope that he wins the nomination. He is the only candidate that I really even remotely like.
What is in Newt's past? He was cleared of all the ethics charges brought against him. It's just too bad that the stupid Republicans were too chicken to go to bat for him. They were all scared of their shadows.
Also, all Newt’s skeletons are out of the closet. His closet is clean. This can’t be said for the candidates. (Yes, I know. Newt is not yet a candidate.)
Wow, for some reason you are really peeved at Newt, aren't you ?!
what an awful, cynical view of things.... one with which i could not disagree more strongly. Ideas do matter and ideas do win elections, even national ones. Maybe not on there own -- the package needs to come together but for heaven's sake....
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.