Giuliani's Golden Ticket? [California Polls]

Claremont Institute ^ | 02/21/07 | Michael Brandon McClellan

[BunnySlippers]

In a move to increase its relevance in the presidential selection process, the Golden State is set to jump up its primary from June of 2008 to February 5th, less than a year away.

This may benefit New York's presidential aspirants, and especially its Republican one.

Last week I noted Giuliani's electric support at the California Republican Party convention. A recent poll has resoundingly brought forth the same message. This morning, the Wall Street Journal's John Fund notes the following numbers:

With California moving its presidential primary to Feb. 5 of next year, what Golden State voters think about White House politics has actually begun to matter. A new poll of likely primary voters by San Diego-based Datamar, Inc. shows the two current frontrunners to be Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. The poll shows Ms. Clinton with 34% of the vote, leading Barack Obama's 24% and John Edwards' 16%. Given Ms. Clinton's enormous name ID advantage, her lead is not compelling. On the GOP side, pundits were startled to see former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 41% support, John McCain with only 17% and Mitt Romney trailing with 11%.

It is early, and a great deal can happen in a year, but those are stunning numbers for the former Mayor. If present trends in California continue, the Golden State's primary move may just be Giuliani's golden ticket to the nomination.

[mainepatsfan]

He definitely could win NH. The rest of NE would be tough.

[mainepatsfan]

We saw that in 2002.

[twonie]

Thanks for the picture. Kind of makes you feel good, doesn't it?

[Lakeshark]

Why would that many Repubs desert him? There are a few here, that's pretty obvious.........but a lot of hard core conservative people like me are willing to look and listen. Not to mention the thought of Hillary is terrifying, and not too many will stay home and allow her to win this thing.

Rudy will win most I's in my opinion. I think most I's will flee her highness.

I think the idea that he can't win the general election you put forward is not any where near correct.

[taxcontrol]

You know, I beginning to think that the US should adopt one single day for all state primaries.... anyone for April 1st?

[mainepatsfan]

That's Obama's only chance. It's still the Clinton's party.

[Lakeshark]

If they have that many more voters, then we're all doomed.........no matter who the candidate.

For the record, I think you're exaggerating.

[Ciexyz]

Most encouraging news.

[highball]

Can you ame a red State that voted for bush that would vote Hillary over Rudy? Rudy will likely put California, New York, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsyvania in play as well.

Sure I can - virtually any of them.

If Rudy depresses the conservative turnout, he could put reliably red states in play for the Dims.

[twonie]

Talk about questionable taste! Unbelievable.

[mainepatsfan]

I suspect you maybe right. Obama better be ready because the Clinton's haven't even taken the gloves off yet.

[Lakeshark]

Yes they do.....one reason I think Rudy could win those states that Bush didn't.......

[TommyDale]

You are making a serious mistake by underestimating the effect of a liberal GOP candidate who is on the wrong side of so many social conservative platform planks. And like I said earlier, Rudy hasn't even been 'Swift Boated' yet.

[Ciexyz]

Rudy reminds me of my Dad somehow. For me, this is a good thing. And I believe if my Dad were still here, he would vote for Rudy.

[tkathy]

Awesome! The dims are shaking in their boots.

[Lakeshark]

I can guarantee you that red state voters won't stay home and allow Hillary to win. They will crawl over glass to keep her from winning, and Rudy will get the I's.

Your argument is flawed.

[BunnySlippers]

Well, Arnold won in 2 landslides in CA.

And the only people who will swift-boat Rudy are the turncoats in the GOP.

[TommyDale]

Don't take my word for the numbers. Those are from Dick Morris and other consultants who have been watching the growth of new young voters and single women voters. We were fortunate in 2004 to get between 4 and 5 million new church attendees to register and vote for GWB. If those churches hadn't been mobilized, you would be looking at a President Kerry right now. And do you think the Religious Right is going to put out that effort in 2008 for Giuliani? Not on your life!

[mainepatsfan]

I'd like to see that as well. It'd be a crushing blow to the television affiliates in Iowa and NH. God knows how much money the candidates spend on ads there every four years.

[Lakeshark]

I think you're wrong. I am a social conservative. have always been one, and will not change any time in the near future. I know a lot like me who are listening and will not stay home and allow Hillary to win.

If you plan to stay home, you are willfully forgetting who we run against my friend........