Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[politicalwit]

so I'll assume you've never seen Rudy debate or conduct a press conference with hostile media.

Talk is cheap but an unborn child is priceless.

[motzman]

Talk is cheap but an unborn child is priceless.

Who is forced to have an abortion?

[cookcounty]

"Having a son in the military will certainly engender respect, but it does not automatically lead to anyone's vote."

Agreed. Being a Vietnam vet and and a fellow "Iraq-Dad" gets him a hearing, but he'll have to show a lot, and quickly, if his campaign is going to overcome the name-recognition deficit. If he waits until the debates, he'll never make it. Too many people (and people who are contributors) will have already made their commitments. Duncan needs a big Spring offensive (this spring) or he's toast. He needs to find a way to make a big splash without going negative, and he needs it right now.

[politicalwit]

I suggest you drop the sports section and do a little research on Rudy.

[motzman]

I suggest you drop the sports section and do a little research on Rudy.

That's your best shot?

How lame.



I live in northern Jersey, worked in NYC through Dinkins and Rudy, I know what I need to know.

Keep sending your money to your "issue-checklist" candidates, nobody's stopping you.

[Antoninus]

We can do better than Rudy McRomney...

"As a conservative site, Free Republic is pro-God, pro-life, pro-family, pro-Constitution, pro-Bill of Rights, pro-gun, pro-limited government, pro-private property rights, pro-limited taxes, pro-capitalism, pro-national defense, pro-freedom, and-pro America. We oppose all forms of liberalism, socialism, fascism, pacifism, totalitarianism, anarchism, government enforced atheism, abortionism, feminism, homosexualism, racism, wacko environmentalism, judicial activism, etc." --Jim Robinson






Freepmail me to join the **high volume** Duncan Hunter Pinglist

Freepmail seanmerc to join the Veterans for Hunter Pinglist

Contribute to Duncan Hunter's Presidential Campaign -- http://www.gohunter08.com

[truth_seeker]

Other survey findings:

--most of Guiliani's harshest critics post daily on the FreeRepublic website. (unfavorable to just 13% of conservative Republicans; favorable to 80% of conservative Republicans)

--most of Hunter's supporters post daily on the FreeRepublic website.

......meantime on another channel, McCain gets Iowa immigration earful--indicates his position might be changed. Would review Pence proposal, dubbed "touchback."

......regarding immigration in Iowa, McCain shows at least understanding of issue, political skills. Sam Brownback is virtually unable to answer, asking to change topics.

......Fred Thompson writes Paul Harvey column on immigration. Hard to tell his position.

......immigration is clearly of interest to Republican primary voters. Guiliani better polish up on this issue.

[Calpernia]

I've absolutely noted that. Hence I'm bringing up post 35 again :)

[Calpernia]

I know how polls work. I'm just bringing attention to the business association between who is buying the polls and who is a client of the poll requester.

[Calpernia]

????

[Calpernia]

[A Strict Constructionist]

I don't understand why people can't understand that the only difference is whom your being betrayed by. The me generation is winning. I hope they enjoy slavery.

[KATIE-O]

It's amazing that Giuliani has changed everything about the U.S. Last time I checked, about 20 states had voted against homosexual marriage,



but now you are telling me that the U.S. is for homosexual marriage.



I SAID NO SUCH THING! I said most Americans feel Gays should have equal rights under the law. I am NOT for Gay Marriage and neither is Rudy Giuliani. Marriage is a sacrament between one man and one woman. Period.


Civil Unions for Gays is not MARRIAGE even though it gives them many of the same benefits. Most people polled say they would not object to CIVIL UNIONS but do not approve of GAY MARRIAGE. Call this a game of semantics if you chose, but I don't see it that way. A Marriage License does not need to be altered in any way as the idiots did in my state of Oregon when they "married" hundreds of Gays only to have those "marriages" overturned later.

[MeanWestTexan]

"Ok This is your chance."

Wow, that really makes me want to answer you.

Despite that, Fred's first government service that I recall (besides Watergate Senate investigator who squared off against Hillary) was in 1977 Thompson took on a Tennessee Parole Board case that ultimately toppled Tennessee Governor Ray Blanton from power on charges of selling pardons.

He was a pretty solid social and fiscal conservative vote throughout his career.

A Freeper favorite act is that Fred, while in the Senate, he was chair of the Committee on Governmental Affairs, which conducted investigations into China's attempts to influence American politics prior to the 1996 elections --- an investigation that uncovered the corruption of one Bill Clinton in this regard.

George W. also picked Fred to guide the nominated John Roberts to the confirmation through the United States Senate, for which we owe Fred an eternal debt of gratitude.

[MACVSOG68]

We'll see one we get to the primaries. Nevertheless, how do you expect a conservative to react when he's told that the Republican Party's frontrunner is a liberal?

This conservative first looks to whose staking the claim of conservative and labeling liberal. If it's those from the social right, then I'm quite comfortable, as they have a rather skewed vision of political conservatism and liberalism.

At this rate, the direction the Republican Party is headed in will turn the party itself into a RINO. Unfortunate...but with the party tilting leftward, classic Republicanism (AKA, conservatism) is being left in the dirt.

Again, with the social right in charge here on FR, I'm not sure where you are coming from.

[wagglebee]

I said I MAY rethink it, I'm not sure yet! :-)

[dynachrome]

I assume Gallup polls are always slanted as are Zogbys. Even with a biased poll, too many conservatives are supporting Rudy, just because it looks like he can defeat hildabeast.

[MACVSOG68]

Newsflash: If we elect a democrat running under the Republican name - WE STILL LOSE!

There is no candidate on the Republican slate so far that I would not vote for if for no other reason than to prevent a disastrous Hillary presidency. That others here so bound up in their social agenda cannot see that, we may definitely be in trouble.

Perhaps I am simply unaware of his conservative characteristics.

Actually, I don't recall ever speaking of Rudy, but he is on the slate. I will look carefully at his "characteristics" in the primary as well as his agenda. First and foremost though, any of candidates on our side far outdistance Hillary in terms of keeping this Country from a greater left turn than it already has taken.

[MACVSOG68]

Still we all need to keep in mind that Free Republic is a conservative forum, not an arm of the Republican National Committee. It's mission statement says something about promoting conservatives, not necessarily Republicans.

I agree with that, but here on FR, the social right has staked a claim to conservatism that has little basis in fact. Much of their agenda could be part and parcel of anyone of any political philosophy. And the MSM also recognizes the RR as the conservative wing of the Republican Party. The main reason why conservatism has gotten a bad rap over the years is that anyone dubbed a conservative anymore is assumed to be just leaving services in a Southern Christian church.

Ronald Reagan understood that a lot of America has a conservative nature and played to that. Democrats and blacks in droves came over to him. Someone must play that message again, rather than looking to a leader who ensures the Party remains in the minority...a minority of white Christians.

A great deal of people I read in here are really libertarians, some actually appear to be liberal (or American liberal which is more Britney Spears than Karl Marx), some who claim to be conservatives come across as charter members of the Charles Manson Party. Quite a few mistake conservatism with Christianity and Judaism with liberals. (although I can't square that with Menachem Begin, Ariel Sharon or the Likud party)... Heck, even Sam Colt was a Democrat. (go figure)

Well said. I agree.

[InfraRed]

Rudy is quietly, steadily accumulating the strongest financial backing, brain power and endorsement base the party can offer.

A waste of money and effort. Rudy cannot win the WH. I will be more than happy to come back to this thread and eat my own words if Rudy takes residence in the Oval Office. It's just not going to happen...

Gun Owners - Not going to vote for Rudy

Pro Life - Not going to vote for Rudy

Closed borders - Not going to vote for Rudy

Anti Gay Marriage - Not going to vote for Rudy

Left Wing - Not going to vote for Rudy

Right Wing - Not going to vote for Rudy

The list goes on, and on, and on... He might get some moderates from the politically ignorant middle, but how much of that is really out there? After recent elections, our country is pretty well divided between left and right. Democrats are not going to vote for a Republican, regardless of his leftist stance on the issues. Conservatives are not going to vote for a leftist, regardless of the letter after his name.

It is all over but the shouting,

Let's hope not, because the Republican party is in for a world of hurt if true.