Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate and Conservative Republicans (New Gallup Poll)

Gallup ^ | 3/20/07

[areafiftyone]

March 20, 2007 Giuliani Top Choice Among Both Moderate, Conservative Republicans Gingrich, Romney do better among conservatives than moderates by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With the 2008 Republican presidential field beginning to come into shape, there are still questions and apparent opportunities for a favorite "conservative" candidate to emerge. The three leading announced contenders -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- have taken stances in the past that are out of step, if not unpopular, with conservative voters, although all have taken recent steps to try to reassure conservatives. The key question is whether conservatives will be able to look past any differences they may have with these candidates and support one of them for the nomination -- or hope that a more solidly conservative candidate emerges from the back of the pack or enters the race.

An analysis of Republicans' primary nomination preferences in recent Gallup Polls show that while conservative Republicans are less likely to support Rudy Giuliani than liberal or moderate Republicans, the former New York City mayor is the clear leader among both groups. John McCain, who is in second among both groups, also fares slightly better among moderates than conservatives. Though well behind the two leaders, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are much more likely to be supported by conservatives than moderates and liberals. At the same time, conservative and moderate Republicans' basic favorable ratings of Giuliani are highly positive and similar between the two groups, as are their ratings of McCain. Romney's favorable ratings are better among conservatives than moderate and liberal Republicans.

Nomination Preference by Ideology

Gallup combined data from its last two Republican nomination trial heats, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007, to get a better sense of how the candidates fare among ideological groups. Both polls showed Giuliani leading among all Republicans over McCain by a healthy margin, with Gingrich third.

Since relatively few Republicans identify as liberals, the responses of liberals and moderates are combined into one group. Republicans are about twice as likely to identify as conservative when asked about their ideological leanings than as either moderate or liberal.

The analysis shows that Giuliani is the top choice among both conservative Republicans and liberal and moderate Republicans, though he has greater support among the latter group. McCain finishes second among both groups, and also polling slightly better among moderates and liberal Republicans.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	48	Rudy Giuliani	38
John McCain	26	John McCain	20
Mitt Romney	3	Newt Gingrich	14
George Pataki	2	Mitt Romney	8
Sam Brownback	2	Tommy Thompson	2
Newt Gingrich	2
Tommy Thompson	2
All others	3	All others	9
No preference	11	No preference	9

Giuliani and McCain are the only candidates with any significant support among moderate and liberal Republicans, with everyone else at 3% or less. On the other hand, Gingrich (14%) and Romney (8%) get higher support among conservative Republicans than liberal or moderate Republicans, but both trail the leading candidates by substantial margins among conservatives.

Gingrich has yet to make his presidential intentions known, saying he will decide whether to formally enter the race later this year. His showing among conservative Republicans indicates he could be a factor in the race, particularly since Republican primary and caucus voters are mostly conservative in their ideological orientation.

If Gingrich does not enter the race, Romney and Giuliani may benefit more than the other Republican candidates among conservatives. When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

Preference for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology (Without Gingrich) Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
Moderate/ Liberal Republicans	%	Conservative Republicans	%
Rudy Giuliani	49%	Rudy Giuliani	43%
John McCain	27%	John McCain	21%
Mitt Romney	3%	Mitt Romney	11%
George Pataki	3%	Sam Brownback	2%
Sam Brownback	2%	Duncan Hunter	2%
Tommy Thompson	2%	Tommy Thompson	2%
		Tom Tancredo	2%
All others	4%	All others	7%
No preference	11%	No preference	10%

Favorable Ratings of Candidates

In addition to measuring the candidates' current support for the nomination, Gallup has also asked Republicans for their overall opinions (favorable or unfavorable) of the leading contenders in the last two months. In general, Giuliani (80%) is viewed more favorably than McCain (68%) by Republicans regardless of their ideology. Eighty percent of both conservative and moderate Republicans have a favorable opinion of Giuliani. McCain's favorable ratings are 66% among moderate and liberal Republicans and 69% among conservative Republicans.

While Republicans' opinions of both Giuliani and McCain are similar by ideology, there is more variation in views of Romney, though the difference is largely due to conservatives being more familiar with him than moderates and liberals. Among conservative Republicans, 38% view Romney favorably, 13% unfavorably, and 49% do not know him well enough to give a rating. Among moderate and liberal Republicans, 23% have a favorable view, 11% an unfavorable one, and 66% cannot rate him.

Favorable Ratings for 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination, Results by Ideology Aggregated Data From Feb. 9-11, 2007, and March 2-4, 2007, Surveys
	Favorable	Un- favorable	No opinion
	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani
All Republicans	80	11	10
Moderate/Liberal	80	7	13
Conservative	80	13	8
John McCain
All Republicans	68	19	13
Moderate/Liberal	66	17	17
Conservative	69	21	10
Mitt Romney
All Republicans	32	12	56
Moderate/Liberal	23	11	66
Conservative	38	13	49

Gingrich's favorable ratings were asked in just one poll, the March 2-4, 2007, poll. Fifty-four percent of Republicans viewed him favorably and 30% unfavorably in that poll, with 16% not having an opinion. Thus, Republicans give Gingrich the highest negative rating among the leading candidates. The data suggest that he is viewed much more favorably by conservative Republicans than by moderate and liberal Republicans so he may not be quite as vulnerable in the primaries as the overall data suggest. Gingrich would have a much harder time in the general election, though, as he is the only leading contender of either party who has a net negative favorable rating (29% favorable and 49% unfavorable) among all Americans.

The favorable ratings show that conservative Republicans are apparently quite comfortable with both Giuliani and McCain -- both are given positive reviews by more than two-thirds of conservative Republicans. That would indicate that there may not be a substantial push to draft a conservative candidate among the Republican rank and file. However, that is not to say that if one emerges in the next several months that the candidate could not be competitive with the current group of frontrunners.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 849 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-11, 2007, and Mar. 2-4, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 552 conservative Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±5 percentage points.

Results based on the sample of 289 moderate or liberal Republicans have a maximum margin of sampling error of ±6 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[Dick Bachert]

Years ago, Congressman and medical doctor Larry McDonald was working late in his Capitol Hill office when an old friend from medical school knocked on his door. Larry rose and greeted his guest and, after exchanging the usual pleasantries, looking a bit dejected, his friend slumped into a chair.

Larry asked him what was wrong.

With a little sigh, his friend said “Every few years, a group of us have to take time away from our practices and jobs and come all the way up here to meet with our representatives and senators to try to head off some new effort to trash the Constitution. And I often get the feeling that these guys up here just aren’t listening.”

Laughing, Larry offered, “You do know, don’t you, that there’s a better way?”

“What’s that, Larry?”

“You and your friends ought to get together at home and find a House candidates who shares your values and get behind him with support and resources and REPLACE those guys who aren’t listening. And if there is no candidate with those qualifications, go out and CREATE one – maybe even run yourself! And if, down the road, the new guy stops listening to you, work to replace HIM. The beauty of the House of Representatives is that the Founding Fathers designed it so that these folks have to come home every 24 months to get their tickets punched by the voters. And as we both know, the taxing and spending occur in the House. If the lower house refused to fund some liberty destroying or unconstitutional agency or program, it just won’t happen.”

“But, Larry, how do we convince the rest of the voters that the incumbent needs to be replaced?”

“That used to be a real challenge since poll after poll asking folks what they thought of congress usually got very negative answers. But when asked how they thought THEIR guys were doing up here got responses indicating that THEIR guys were doing a good job. There’s a new program called Tax Reform Immediately (TRIM) that uses only one yardstick for its quarterly rating of every member of congress – the United States Constitution.” (http://www.trimonline.org)

“Does it work, Larry?”

“One of my favorite stories about that is the 16 year-old paperboy out in the Midwest who every quarter paid to have 10,000 TRIM Bulletins printed and threw them on his route and in another 9,500 lawns in his district – FROM HIS BIKE! After 3 quarters of that, the incumbent was ousted for someone who more closely represented the views of the voters. On election night, the red-faced loser was interviewed on TV and, waving a TRIM Bulletin, sputtered that it was a right-wing plot to “get him.” It was GREAT TV.”

“A ‘plot’ by a 16 year-old paperboy.” Larry and his guest laughed.

“And it’s happening all over the country – even in my state, Georgia. My supporters down there are keeping the voters in the 7th informed about my votes up here. Since my only standard is the Constitution, they keep sending me back. So it works both ways: The good guys get reelected and the bad guys get sent home – or hang around as lobbyists.” Another chuckle.

“But what about the presidential election?”

“While important, if we had 300 or so decent representatives up here on the Hill, they’d take back much of the power they’ve shipped down to 1600 over the past years and the 4 year beauty contest would become far less important than it now is. A metaphor for these elections for president, representatives and senate is a 3 card Monte game: While everyone is focused on the card marked with the “P,” the “R” and “S” cards are largely ignored.”

Larry’s friend returned home, got his friends and neighbors up to speed with TRIM – and within a year, had a new and improved representative.

[MACVSOG68]

I guess they don't learn even when they lose elections. Very strange Indeed.

You know, you reminded me of how they love to throw around the term "RINO", meaning of course, Republican in name only. Yet these are the same posters who tell us all that unless we get their social right candidate that they will refuse to vote Republican. Now, I ask, who is a Republican in name only?

[massadvj]

When the data are re-calculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for the nomination in place of their Gingrich vote, Giuliani's support among conservative Republicans increases to 43% (from 38%) and Romney pushes into the double digits at 11%. McCain's support is generally unchanged (21% compared to 20%) with Gingrich in the race. No other candidate gains more than a point in support among conservatives.

TRANSLATION: Conservatives would rather be relevant than right. The 2006 election results were extremely favorable to Giuliani because they woke up all Republicanns, conservatives and moderates, to the political reality that conservatism as a running platform in a general election is no longer a viable strategy. This poll says as much.

Here on FR a few might speak loudly, but even here Giuliani polls favorably, especially head-to-head versus McCain. People recognize the need to reverse the 2006 bleeding, and Giuliani offers the best hope in that regard.

[MeanWestTexan]

What I am particularly disgusted with is the discovery of campaigns of the power of sites like FR and lucciane.

As a result, obvious campaign workers post here (Ron Paul and Rudy being ones I have noticed) in an attempt to manipulate "base" opinion.

It's not working, guys. Please stop.

[bushfamfan]

Duncan Hunter remains the best possible candidate. Although it is disturbing that so many Republicans are apparently ignorant to who Duncan Hunter is, I think it will be something when they get a chance to see him during the debates. The man is a natural leader and give it time we can see change. Debates and more campaigning. That is what it is about.

[areafiftyone]

As a result, obvious campaign workers post here (Ron Paul and Rudy being ones I have noticed) in an attempt to manipulate "base" opinion.

Do you have proof of that? I don't know any campaign workers and I certainly am not a campaign worker.

[GrandEagle]

Duncan Hunter - I hope he can make a showing. He has my support.

[bushfamfan]

And wouldn't you say that you consider Thompson a 'realistic candidate' because he is an actor? In all seriuosness, why don't you people just open up the fact this is hype yet again because you know he's an actor and that takes precedence with you. If he wasn't, nothing would have stuck out about a 6 yr. Senator. Hunter is the real deal and will show who is the REAL candidate during the debates. His only problem is name recognition, unfortunately. But he is solid as they come and will continue to show he has what it takes. That is REALITY, not some tv show script telling us what is supposed to be. It's about campaigning and how well you can sell your policies.

[TommyDale]

You mean they are trying to hijack conservative sites and try to make their candidate look like a conservative? Who'd of thunk it? :-)

[zarf]

Duncan Hunter looking like a Goliath amoungst Davids < /s>

[bushfamfan]

He will also need our money. http://www.gohunter08.com Let's get this magnificent man more recognition because he is clearly the best.

[Ultra Sonic 007]

Yet these are the same posters who tell us all that unless we get their social right candidate that they will refuse to vote Republican.

We'll see one we get to the primaries. Nevertheless, how do you expect a conservative to react when he's told that the Republican Party's frontrunner is a liberal?

Now, I ask, who is a Republican in name only?

At this rate, the direction the Republican Party is headed in will turn the party itself into a RINO. Unfortunate...but with the party tilting leftward, classic Republicanism (AKA, conservatism) is being left in the dirt.

[InfraRed]

...but even here Giuliani polls favorably, especially head-to-head versus McCain.

...but even here Giuliani polls favorably, especially head-to-head but ONLY versus McCain.

There. Fixed it for ya...

Fred Thompson 65.9% 4,165
Rudy Giuliani 19.3% 1,219

Newt Gingrich 60.5% 3,478
Rudy Giuliani 24.3% 1,395

Duncan Hunter 59.3% 3,058
Rudy Giuliani 28.6% 1,474

[Calpernia]

Don't miss post:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1803763/posts?page=35#35

[GrandEagle]

I guess they don't learn even when they lose elections.
Newsflash: If we elect a democrat running under the Republican name - WE STILL LOSE!

I ask, who is a Republican in name only
If Rudy is Republican - then I guess I am.

Perhaps I am simply unaware of his conservative characteristics.
Cordially
GE

[Calpernia]

"Poles for Rudy"

[Arizona Carolyn]

Rumors out that Fred will run as VP with Rudy on top of ticket.

[WalterSkinner]

Duncan Hunter Grassroots Campaign

[bushfamfan]

I can't wait until the debates. Ought to be nice to actually make sure people TAKE A LOOK beyond the 'names'. Of course, Rudy is passing up the first debate in New Hampshire next month!! No more time to masquerade. Duncan Hunter is pure quality and substance. NO ONE is better prepared for the times we are facing. And you people are kidding yourselves if you don't think the Republican candidate, with the GOP position on Iraq and the WOT, is going to face questions of "what military service have you had? has your own child served in the war you want?". Hunter is the best possible all-around candidate. No chickenhawk there. People are MORE impressed in these times with someone who has actually served and has a child who has served.

[GrandEagle]

Thanks for the link - I'll have to hit it tonight when I have a faster connection!