Posted on 04/02/2007 8:57:14 PM PDT by garv
Former Iowa congressman Jim Nussle isn't worried that Rudy Giuliani is getting a late start in the state's first-in-the-nation caucuses.
In fact, Nussle says, the former New York mayor isn't behind schedule at all.
"George W. Bush first set foot in Iowa in what would amount to June of this year (in 1999) and still won the (state party's Ames) straw poll," recalled Nussle, Giuliani's top supporter in the state.
Still, when Giuliani touches down in Iowa Tuesday for the first time since his presidential bid began, the leader in GOP polls arrives with considerable expectations -- but also many questions.
Chief among them: Can Giuliani win the favor of Iowa social conservatives who dominate the caucuses?
Nussle, a former House Budget Committee chairman who lost a gubernatorial bid to Democrat Chet Culver last year, says yes. "Appointment of judges is probably the most important issue going" for those on the right, according to Nussle, and Giuliani's pledge to appoint constructionist justices offers reassurance to Iowa conservatives.
Nussle acknowledged that Giuliani's positions on social issues crucial to the conservative vote are "not black and white" but maintained that the former mayor "isn't all that different than a lot of people in Iowa on these issues."
Whether or not that's the case, Giuliani has yet to convince influential Christian conservatives who comprise the core of the Iowa GOP. "So far, he's not made any effort to talk to any of us," said Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Christian Alliance and a caucus veteran. He's staying neutral in the presidential contest.
"Maybe he thinks that he doesn't need social conservatives," wondered Scheffler, who has received only minimal contact from Giuliani's campaign. "I would hope not."
That Scheffler, among the most powerful grass-roots organizers in the state, has yet to receive so much as a telephone call from Giuliani reflects some of the growing pains of the former mayor's campaign.
Buoyed by impressive approval ratings from Republican voters, Giuliani has finally started to convince even once skeptical political observers that his candidacy is the real thing. But for every national or early-state survey showing Giuliani in the lead, there are reminders that his campaign still has significant hurdles to overcome.
His organization, as illustrated by the Scheffler example, lags far behind those of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney nationally and in the critical kickoff states in terms of size and sophistication.
But the problem is much more fundamental than just key activists not getting phone calls. Running in these early months without a fully developed campaign team, Giuliani has been battered by increasingly tough press coverage and has been unable to effectively push back against the charges dredged up by opponents and a scrutinizing media.
While Giuliani has taken steps in recent weeks to remedy the problem by bringing on additional seasoned hands to his communications team, the danger is that, in Iowa and elsewhere, he's becoming defined by others and not on his own terms.
Recent numbers bear this out. Giuliani's lead over McCain among national Republicans has dipped from 20 percentage points to 13 in a few weeks' time, according to a newly released Time magazine survey, and from 24 percentage points to 9, according to Gallup. (Former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson was included in the latter poll.) Giuliani's polling decline comes as stories about his tumultuous personal life and controversial clients have emerged.
Giuliani's team recognizes the hits its candidate has taken of late and thinks that its initial Iowa jaunt, which falls between trips to New Hampshire and South Carolina, offers an opportunity to define his public image among an important set of GOP voters.
"It's an opportunity to highlight the mayor's record," a Giuliani campaign aide says of the early-state tour. "People know the mayor in the context of 9/11, but what they don't know are the other parts of his record."
So Giuliani will spend his time in Cedar Rapids, his first Iowa stop and also the place Bush made his Iowa debut in 1999, discussing with local officials and business leaders that city's use of crime-fighting techniques similar to those that Giuliani used so successfully in New York.
In Des Moines on Tuesday night, Giuliani will hold an open forum where he's expected to talk about his record of cutting taxes, reforming welfare and offering educational choice -- issues Giuliani's team wants voters to know more about and where, not incidentally, he's in sync with the base of the party.
"Very few of (the other candidates) have actually taken their conservative principles and applied them," Nussle said about Giuliani's tenure as mayor.
As for social issues on which Giuliani differs from movement conservatives, Nussle acknowledged those are matters the former mayor is "certainly going to have to talk about and explain."
But not necessarily on his initial trip.
"The most important thing he is accomplishing," coming to the state now, Nussle said, "is letting Iowa know that he's going to compete here and wants to start building an organization here."
Iowa GOP executive director Chuck Laudner agreed.
"First and foremost, this is his introduction," noted Laudner, who is neutral in the 2008 contest. "You go out there and say what you're for and leave the rest for the remaining months."
Like Bush, Giuliani has "enough star power to overcome a late start," said Laudner.
"It all depends on his ground game," Laudner observed.
But will Giuliani invest the time and money necessary to build the sort of 99-county grass-roots organization needed to win Iowa?
With more moderate-friendly states moving up their primaries to Feb. 5's Super Tuesday, Giuliani has to decide whether to lessen the traditional focus on the conservative-controlled caucuses.
A Giuliani aide says the change in calendar just means "we have to play in more states," adding that this inaugural Iowa trip is just one "of many to come" and that they'll be back for a major Republican dinner in a few weeks.
Said Nussle: "Yes, he's got his eye on Feb. 5, but anybody who's serious about winning in a national election has to compete in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina."
Nussle said Bush "didn't do the intimate strategy that Jimmy Carter made famous," and he still won the closely watched straw poll in Ames and eventually the caucuses.
Still, activists like Scheffler demand a personal touch, and Giuliani has more explaining to do than Bush ever did on hot-button social issues.
"The bottom line is that whether he agrees with social conservatives or not, he has an obligation to have a dialogue," Scheffler said.
The longer Giuliani can maintain a knowledge gap about his positions on social issues the better off he is. I think his camp knows that his social positions are non-starters and will lead to his defeat unless they can build up a sense of inevitability about his nomination. Fortunately, his momentum has stalled and the cracks are starting to open.
Will his 3rd wifes kids from her first 2 marriages be 1st family members? Or will her 3 marriages basically mean her 3rd husbands kids from his first 2 marriages are the only first family members?
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shades of aRnold..
Well shucks and begaaa!
Presidential hopeful U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., center, laughs with state Sen. Eugene Fraise, D-Fort Madison, left, during a barbecue fundraiser for Fraise's re-election in Fort Madison, Iowa, on Monday, April 2, 2007. Former presidential hopeful and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack is on the right. (AP Photo/Kevin Sanders)
Here's another example of Rudy completely not getting it.
Crime is a local and state issue. If Rudy was smart, he'd get off the crime and 9/11 schtick and start talking about limiting the size of government.
Unfortunately, Rudy's extreme liberalism on social issues undermines any credibility he has with fiscal or WOT issues. Rudy can't be trusted to cut taxes or win the war on terror, since he believes pre-born infants should be dismembered.
If he stops talking about 9/11 and his crime reduction in NYC he’ll have to start talking policy. Since I have yet to see him make a definitive statement on anything that he would do as President that would be a problem.
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Unfortunately, Rudy’s extreme liberalism on social issues undermines any credibility he has with fiscal or WOT issues. Rudy can’t be trusted to cut taxes or win the war on terror, since he believes pre-born infants should be dismembered.”
Do you realize that your statement made absolutely no sense. What does one have to do with the other?
How can someone advocate liberty and freedom, when they support the killing of unborn children.
Fiscal conservatism and social liberalism are not compatible.
“If he stops talking about 9/11 and his crime reduction in NYC he’ll have to start talking policy. Since I have yet to see him make a definitive statement on anything that he would do as President that would be a problem.”
You haven’t been listening. He has spoken out forcefully in support of the Iraq war and on issues like Iran’s taking of hostages. No one should doubt his staunch opposition to Islamofascism.
Domestically, Rudy cut NYC taxes and levies over and over, saving billions for taxpayers. He cut NYC’s top income-tax rate by 20.6%. Local city taxes on a family of four dropped 23.7%. He cut the commercial-rent tax. He cut sales taxes, including taxes on clothing. He cut the marriage penalty tax. He cut taxes on commercial rents and on small businesses and self-employed New Yorkers. He privatized municipal assets, selling city-owned radio and television stations and divested the City from the New York Coliseum adding $345 million to erase the City’s red ink. He cut NYC’s hotel tax from 6% to 5%. Tourism increased 50% in the city per year during Rudy’s tenure. Personal income increased 50%. Unemployment in the city went form 10.3% to 5.1%.
It may be hard for some conservatives to grasp, but since many pro-choice people do not regard the unborn as human beings, it is entirely logical for them to support policies which destroy them, regardless of their positions on fiscal policies. Likewise, someone who recognizes the humanity of the unborn would oppose policies which would allow or encourage their destruction, again regardless of their fiscal policy positions.
I don't know why you regard pro-abortion advocacy as incompatible with fiscal conservatism; the two views are essentially orthogonal.
For me, though, the real deal-breaker for Rudy is his refusal to acknowledge that his past anti-Second-Amendment actions were grossly unconstitutional. If he were to acknowledge that he'd made some gross mistakes in the past, but was wiser now, and if I judged him to be sincere, I wouldn't hold his actions against him forever. But unless or until he acknowledges that his actions were grossly wrong, I see no reason to forgive them.
Iowa’s importance is vastly overrated.
Here’s another FReeper reading the Rudy Campaign Machine’s tea leaves as I had.
Rudy really believes ignorance rampantly runs in his favor in America and will continue to do so. Unfortunate it is for America if he is right.
You seem to forget: Rudy says Judi will sit in on Cabinet meetings, and may even be appointed to a Cabinet position.
There. Don't you all feel better now?
Iowa becomes even more overrated because Cali and FL moved up their primaries.
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