CNN Poll a Disaster for Giuliani

ElephantBiz ^ | May 7, 2007 | Bill Hobbs

[pogo101]

Nine months before the first primary, and the two front-runners for the Republican presidential nomination don't even have majority support among Republican likely voters if you added their support together. And the third alleged member of what the media portrays as the "Big Three" in the crowded GOP field isn't even running in third place, according to the latest CNN poll. He's running in fourth place, behind someone who as of this writing isn't even running.

Meanwhile, the support for "Anybody but Giuliani, McCain or Romney" appears to be growing

According to the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll out today, when asked whom they would most likely support for the Republican nomination, 25 percent of people who identified themselves as Republicans or leaning Republican cited former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and 23 percent cited Arizona's U.S. Sen. John McCain. Only 10 percent said they backed former Massachussets Gov. Mitt Romney, which put him three points behind former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, who hasn't officially entered the race. (Full Poll Results [PDF])

The CNN Opinion Research Corporation telephone poll was carried out Friday through Sunday and included 414 registered voters who described themselves as Republicans or as independents who lean Republican

Romney's 10 percent is only one point better than the nine percent for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, another possible but undeclared candidate. The rest of the field includes: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 3 percent; Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore each with 2 percent; former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, and California Rep. Duncan Hunter each with 1 percent, while 8 percent had no opinion.

My take on the poll: it's a not great news for McCain but it is a very big disaster for Giuliani and Romney. Here's why...

Giuliani's support dropped two points from the same poll in mid-April, while McCain's support dropped by a point. Romney's held steady at 10 points. But Rudy losing two points isn't the story, this is: The Giuliani surge is over - two months ago in the same poll he was at 34 percent. Two months ago, though, Fred Thompson indicated he might run, and the air started whooshing out of Giuliani's balloon. Giuliani's main selling point - aside from his leadership, his post-9/11 image and his success running NYC - has always been that he's a candidate widely thought to be able to win in November, something that many Republican voters apparently don't quite believe about McCain, Romney or the rest of the announced field.

Fred Thompson also is viewed as a guy who can win in November - and his conservative views and voting record are more in tune with more Republican primary voters than are Giuliani's. Fred's interest in the race undermined Giuliani's key selling point.

Meanwhile, the media-expected Romney surge never started - he was at 9 points two months ago, he's at 10 points now. Only his fund-raising prowess keeps him in the top tier in the mind of the media.

As for McCain, his support for "the surge" in Iraq may have stopped his campaign's downward surge - he was at 30 percent in mid-November and 18 percent two months ago as Giuliani's numbers shot upward. He's at 23 percent now. He may overtake Giuliani soon - but more because Giuliani is falling.

Meanwhile, the support for "Anybody but Giuliani, McCain or Romney" appears to be growing. In mid-November, those three combined had 72 percent of the support in the CNN/Opinion Research poll. This month: 58 percent. Of that 14-point decline, 13 points went to Fred Thompson.

If you look at the numbers, you realize that Fred Thompson is well positioned to take over the GOP field if, as expected, he enters the race in June.

Let's do a little hypothetical math. Support for Fred Thompson, Gingrich, Gilmore, Huckabee Tancredo, Tommy "The Other" Thompson, Hunter, and Paul can pretty much be summarized as people who are not big fans of the media-anointed "Big Three" of Giuliani, McCain and Romney. And it's a big protest vote - 34 percent, which is 9 points ahead of Giuliani, 11 points ahead of McCain, and 24 points ahead of Romney.

Fred Thompson is well-positioned to pick a lot of ground, fast, as the rest of the "Not the Big Three" field begins to drop out of the race. Thompson is also the natural heir to Gingrich's support if Gingrich declines to run. (And many political observers believe that, if Fred runs, Newt won't.)

Now, Romney could win over some of those supporters - his campaign is predicated upon winning over social conservatives, of course. But what if Romney can't close the deal? Except good poll numbers in New Hampshire, where Romney has always been expected to do well, there is little evidence his fund-raising prowess is translating into support from voters. If Romney can't seal the deal soon,

Simply put - Thompson is more likely than any other candidate to gain most of the support from the also-rans as they, almost inevitably, drop out. Even Ron Paul's support as Fred Thompson, like Paul, believes in a federalist approach to government.

[LonePalm]

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

[pissant]

Fred sounds like he flopped at his big speech the other night in OC.

[LonePalm]

So the MSM would have us believe.

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

[pissant]

If you consider Novak and Medved and our local right wing guy MSM. Oh well, it won’t slow the buzz, I’m sure.

[Reform4Bush]

It's a disaster for Rudy that he leads in their poll?

[THEUPMAN]

I think I’m going to start using my mailing lists to get Hunters name out there.

I have found that even among people that I thought kept up with events ... they haven’t heard of Duncan Hunter.

The media would rather choke then mention him.

It will be up to us , one person at a time to get the word out.
EVERYONE without exception that I have put Duncan Hunter’s record and statements in front of has been amazed.
They had no idea that a real conservative was running.

Conservatives can WIN ! but it will take a real grass roots word of mouth , one on one effort to get the ball rolling.

I don’t like spam and will do everything I can to keep from spaming friends ... but there are some things that need to be said and I believe that including info on Duncan Hunter in e-mails is a fair thing to do.

I believe that Anyone who has all the info will vote Hunter.

[Sprite518]

No... She is not interested....

[Paleo Conservative]

CNN has zero credibility in my book. I will just move along as there is nothing to see here.

Don't they team up with Al Jazeera on their polling?

[pissant]

You said it all. No time for half baked leftovers or slick metrosexuals. We need a Reaganite and now.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

“Meanwhile, the support for ‘Anybody but Giuliani, McCain or Romney’ appears to be growing...”

That’s where the Smart Money lies. I’m sure the PuppetMasters are very busy behind the scenes these days. The GOP NEEDS to deliver, and deliver big. I love President Bush, but this country needs a good swift kick to the Right, d@mmit!

It is clearly past time to kick butt and take names. :)

[veronica]

This is confusing.

The CNN headline reads:

Poll: Giuliani, McCain lead the pack

McCain and Giuliani lead in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll.

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A year and a half before the 2008 presidential election, Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain are leading the Republican pack, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll out Monday.

[Sir Francis Dashwood]

I think Newt will have to explain to us why he went Green before he can win the primary.

[no dems]

There was a female-type Dem strategist on Glenn Beck last night predicting that McCain will in fact be the GOP nominee.

Yeah; right.

[pogo101]

I think the blogger’s point is that Giuliani is falling rather than rising or staying at the same support level.

[Spyder]

Perfect photo! I love it!!!

[publana]

because he can't get the crossover votes. I think Thompson can.

Exactly. Fred is just what this party needs to win.

I do disagree with many of you, though. I think Rudy could win the election as well due to the crossover from the RAT party. I also feel that he is deserving of more respect from FReepers than I have seen. Rudy was out pounding the pavement for BUSH when others were hiding under their desks. Although I will be voting for Thompson in the Primaries, I will give Rudy the respect he deserves and not ridicule him in this forum or elsewhere.

[dangus]

>> The other President from California did very very well. <<

Who, Nixon? He was a pathetic, corrupt liberal.

(You weren’t think of that warm, brilliant old man from Illinois, were you? You know, the guy who defeated the Soviets?)

[dangus]

Yeah, it’s a disaster that for Rudy that 75% of primary voters want someone else... now, here’s hoping someone else runs.

[streetpreacher]

I don’t think so but it would be nice if you were right. I will gladly eat crow.

[streetpreacher]

Did you watch the speech? I found it to be impressive. I could see why a Washington Insider would not.