Posted on 05/07/2007 3:44:44 PM PDT by pogo101
Nine months before the first primary, and the two front-runners for the Republican presidential nomination don't even have majority support among Republican likely voters if you added their support together. And the third alleged member of what the media portrays as the "Big Three" in the crowded GOP field isn't even running in third place, according to the latest CNN poll. He's running in fourth place, behind someone who as of this writing isn't even running.
Meanwhile, the support for "Anybody but Giuliani, McCain or Romney" appears to be growing
According to the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll out today, when asked whom they would most likely support for the Republican nomination, 25 percent of people who identified themselves as Republicans or leaning Republican cited former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and 23 percent cited Arizona's U.S. Sen. John McCain. Only 10 percent said they backed former Massachussets Gov. Mitt Romney, which put him three points behind former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, who hasn't officially entered the race. (Full Poll Results [PDF])
The CNN Opinion Research Corporation telephone poll was carried out Friday through Sunday and included 414 registered voters who described themselves as Republicans or as independents who lean Republican
Romney's 10 percent is only one point better than the nine percent for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, another possible but undeclared candidate. The rest of the field includes: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 3 percent; Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore each with 2 percent; former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, and California Rep. Duncan Hunter each with 1 percent, while 8 percent had no opinion.
My take on the poll: it's a not great news for McCain but it is a very big disaster for Giuliani and Romney. Here's why...
Giuliani's support dropped two points from the same poll in mid-April, while McCain's support dropped by a point. Romney's held steady at 10 points. But Rudy losing two points isn't the story, this is: The Giuliani surge is over - two months ago in the same poll he was at 34 percent. Two months ago, though, Fred Thompson indicated he might run, and the air started whooshing out of Giuliani's balloon. Giuliani's main selling point - aside from his leadership, his post-9/11 image and his success running NYC - has always been that he's a candidate widely thought to be able to win in November, something that many Republican voters apparently don't quite believe about McCain, Romney or the rest of the announced field.
Fred Thompson also is viewed as a guy who can win in November - and his conservative views and voting record are more in tune with more Republican primary voters than are Giuliani's. Fred's interest in the race undermined Giuliani's key selling point.
Meanwhile, the media-expected Romney surge never started - he was at 9 points two months ago, he's at 10 points now. Only his fund-raising prowess keeps him in the top tier in the mind of the media.
As for McCain, his support for "the surge" in Iraq may have stopped his campaign's downward surge - he was at 30 percent in mid-November and 18 percent two months ago as Giuliani's numbers shot upward. He's at 23 percent now. He may overtake Giuliani soon - but more because Giuliani is falling.
Meanwhile, the support for "Anybody but Giuliani, McCain or Romney" appears to be growing. In mid-November, those three combined had 72 percent of the support in the CNN/Opinion Research poll. This month: 58 percent. Of that 14-point decline, 13 points went to Fred Thompson.
If you look at the numbers, you realize that Fred Thompson is well positioned to take over the GOP field if, as expected, he enters the race in June.
Let's do a little hypothetical math. Support for Fred Thompson, Gingrich, Gilmore, Huckabee Tancredo, Tommy "The Other" Thompson, Hunter, and Paul can pretty much be summarized as people who are not big fans of the media-anointed "Big Three" of Giuliani, McCain and Romney. And it's a big protest vote - 34 percent, which is 9 points ahead of Giuliani, 11 points ahead of McCain, and 24 points ahead of Romney.
Fred Thompson is well-positioned to pick a lot of ground, fast, as the rest of the "Not the Big Three" field begins to drop out of the race. Thompson is also the natural heir to Gingrich's support if Gingrich declines to run. (And many political observers believe that, if Fred runs, Newt won't.)
Now, Romney could win over some of those supporters - his campaign is predicated upon winning over social conservatives, of course. But what if Romney can't close the deal? Except good poll numbers in New Hampshire, where Romney has always been expected to do well, there is little evidence his fund-raising prowess is translating into support from voters. If Romney can't seal the deal soon,
Simply put - Thompson is more likely than any other candidate to gain most of the support from the also-rans as they, almost inevitably, drop out. Even Ron Paul's support as Fred Thompson, like Paul, believes in a federalist approach to government.
Yes. It’s called backbone.
I'll be around to remind you, as I said I like Hunter but in my NSHO he won't get the nomination because he can't get the crossover votes.
I think Thompson can.
The goal of a political campaign is to PEAK on election day.
McCain may have peaked in June 2006. He has lost is major supporter and campaign contributor ... Ms.M.
Rudy may have peaked in Dec 2006. He never had a major supporter.
Mitt may never peak, despite having more campaign contributors than John Conally, and all other inevitable Texans combined.
Fred says that a candidate who can’t deliver a compelling argument to voters in a couple months probably shouldn’t be a candidate. That proves that Fred is smarter and a better manager than the big 3. Of course, it doesn’t prove that he can beat Newt in a primary.
I think Newt will have to explain to us why he went Green before he can win the primary.
Oh, you can’t be serious.
Gingrich dumped two wives after they became extremely ill, committed serial adultery, and refused to support his family, and they were forced to take support from their church.
He will never be a viable candidate.
A Reaganite message will get plenty of cross over votes. Especially from blue collar guys sick of seeing effeminate CEOs get millions for shipping manufacturing jobs to communist china and illegal aliens undercutting their construction work. In addition, no one exudes as much testosterone. Good for the wimmin voters.
The hard-nosed, yet optimistic truth can even sway the pathetic french population, apparently.
“Giuliani’s problem is his position on key issues”
Sorry, Giuliani’s problem is that he’s a democrat...
Don’t put too much stock in a CNN poll especially when the first primary is eight months away.
I don't think a comparison of American politics and the French are appropriate.
Are the French at war? (Well yeah, but they haven't figured it out yet.)Are the people of France disgusted with the way the Socialists are running the country?
Apparently.
Will the Republican give the nomination to a almost unknown candidate?
Not likely.
Freegards, Yankee.
Only in your dreams.
The parallel is that you tell the people the truth, show them a conservative solution, pound the libs as the socialist they are (Reagan was excellent at that, and so is Hunter), and you will win. It’s simple.
But support who you like. It’s the American way.
If you are conservative, it’s your dream as well. But alas, there are plenty of folks willing to settle for the big three lemons.
But you’ll jump on board soon enough.
If Fred Thompson gets into the race he will be the next President.
Don’t hold your breath.
LMAO
Is that like Bob Ueker being in the front row?
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)
The stats appear to support your want. ; )
Well, some sorry sorts were telling me that Rudy was gonna win hands down too. ROFLMAO
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