Skip to comments.Giuliani losing steam in '08 presidential race
Posted on 05/17/2007 1:13:46 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Washington - Just a month ago, Rudy Giuliani was riding high in polls of Republican voters for their party's 2008 presidential nomination. The former mayor of New York enjoyed near universal name recognition and a sterling reputation for leadership and decisiveness in the aftermath of 9/11.
And his liberal stands on divisive issues such as abortion? Maybe a new day had dawned, in which enough social conservative voters would put security concerns ahead of the culture wars to nominate a liberal Republican, some party activists had suggested. Others touted Mr. Giuliani's strength in the GOP field as a sign that theirs was a "big tent" party.
Now, the tide seems to be shifting. Giuliani's poll numbers have flattened noticeably in the past few weeks, following the first GOP debate early this month and the ensuing news coverage over his conflicted answer on abortion rights.
In the latest Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll, Giuliani leads Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona by just one point, 25 percent to 24 percent, down from a seven-point lead at the end of April. In the Gallup poll, Giuliani's lead over Senator McCain has shrunk from 14 points in early May to six points in mid-May.
"He's been on the ropes the last couple of weeks," says Amy Walter, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, who cites not just his liberal stand on abortion, but also his inability to explain himself clearly. "Giuliani's strongest asset is supposed to be this sense that
he projects strength and courage of conviction. Yet on the first question about a contentious issue, he seemed to be all over the place."
(Excerpt) Read more at csmonitor.com ...
First NPR, now the Christian Science Monitor?
I do not support Rudy, so please spare the onslaught. However, He looked strong in the debate the other night. Did his numbers improve after that?
I still don't think so. Whoever is chosen for the Republican nomination will need to be both tough on national security and a defender of the right to life.
Rudy's fundamental flaws: Conservatives see abortion as an underlying part of a cultural struggle. Rudy sees it as an issue to overcome. Conservatives see the traditional family as the building block of a culture. Rudy sees it as, well, optional.
Rudy did do well in the debate, but usually only political junkies watch those things, so it’s impact isn’t going to be as much as that of a major issue.
Uncle Hal - I promise you - the GOP ship will right itself and we will field a great candidate for POTUS.
Take faith - we will rise and meet the challenges ahead.
I have zero doubt about that.
Maybe it’s time to retire my tagline then...
...Let not your heart be troubled, neither let it be afraid.(John 14:27)
Forget JulieAnnie...Lets hope Duncan Hunter moves ahead by word of mouth being that the lib press refuses to aknowledge him because he has no sensationalistic gimmick. He`s not a Marxist former co-President, a hair obsessed ambulance chaser, a guy with a terrorist sounding name nor a former comb over 911 whore...Let`s move him ahead solely by word of mouth. I think when people are made aware, he will get the recognition and ultimatey the votes he deserves.
Naw...keep it until the fork confirms he is done :>)
Hang on another month. Fred is on the way.
I like it better.
Always better to be positive than negative.
I thought I’d go from negative on Rudy to promoting the guy I want... like the new tagline?
We've got good candidates, they just won't win because they haven't been annointed by the party.
He may have been the right mayor for the time, much as I feel Bush was the right president for the time.
Going forward, we need someone more conservative, one who can enunciate Conservatism clearly and comprehensively as a rock solid alternative to the debasement the liberals have brought to the table.
That said, the best thing we may have going is the Dem candidates. Hillary is extremely polarizing and puts off big chunks of her own base. Edwards is feckless. Obama - well, can you imagine an Illinois state senator is really qualified to be President? Most all the Republicans will look solid and experienced by comparison. It'll be tough, but it just could happen.
Looks good. I’m a Hunter fan myself. Take care.
You know the old saying, "When a Republican endorses free and easy abortion, a televangelist dies."
I think social conservatives just got a reminder why they don't want Rudy.
If I could only believe this.
What evidence do you see that they are even trying?
“Uncle Hal - I promise you - the GOP ship will right itself and we will field a great candidate for POTUS.
Take faith - we will rise and meet the challenges ahead.
I have zero doubt about that.
Jake The Goose...I completely agree!
I hear ol’ Rudy’s having a tough time moving ticket sales for an upcoming fundraising event in Virginia. A REAL tough time.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer liberal. (Who STILL might be okay as a Homeland Security Chieftan under President Thompson!).
FRED THOMPSON as one example. History as another.
That’s odd - I heard that as of 1:00pm - the event was selling out quickly.
Have to check that out.
POTUS Thompson - not too shabby.
I read a thread this a.m. where Rooty is only leading the unannounced Fred Thompson by a couple points (4 IIRC). The poll was taken the 15th and 16th AFTER the debate. So that hanging curve Ron Paul tossed didn't help.
But as to that debate I think Rooty's response was stoo-pid. To say he never heard of what Paul posited, means to me he's completely out of touch. The moonbats and 'pacifists' have been saying that for decades. Furthermore his 'mommy, mommy, make him take it back' whine was pathetic. Too boot he refused to answer Chris Wallace's direct question - twice. He wiggled, danced, and spun like a top but wouldn't answer it. So except for Ron Paul the KOOK, I think Rooty came in last edging out the terrorists lawyer, McInsane, for 9th with Hunter the winner.
Ergo, the day Fred Thompson announces Rooty is kaput. He can pack his trousseau and go home.
ISn’t Rudy a bit weak on the illegal immigration issue too?
(1) Even if Fred Thompson decides to run what makes you think the RNC is trying to recruit him? I see quite the opposite; RNC is currently trying to promote "Rudy McRomney" instead.
(2) The history I am looking at is apparently not what you are looking at, either; the RNC seems to be doing everything they can to alienate their own base.
So you're wrong.
If you want to be right, get the RNC to step up to the plate and be Republicans for a change.
Good luck with that.
I heard this afternoon that the Rudyites are running ticket sales through the law firm former MD Liberal Republican Gov. Ehrlich signed up with because they were having a terrible time moving the tickets on the ground.
Rudy appointed Ehrlich, who was blown out after one term as Governor by Martin “Teflon Leprechaun” O’Malley, as his Mid Atlantic Coordinator. I don’t know what Rudy was thinking when he made that appointment, but it should make the more conservative and libertarian elements of the GOP rejoice. Like Rudy, Ehrlich proved to be nothing more than a big government, empty-suit, liberal Republican.
But, I digress...the issue at hand, how well Rudy’s moving fundraising tix, may be the subject of much misinformation at present - which would explain why we are hearing different takes on the same event.
You’ve got a point, which is while I said Rudy STILL may (as opposed to WOULD) be a good choice as Homeland Security Chief. MAY be.
My top choice would probably be Tancredo.
You are right there - never trust anything you hear in politics.
You certainly appear to be well connected.
WOW - gosh - I honestly don’t see a push for “Rudy McRomney”
I could be wrong.
I just find Fred Thompson so compelling as a possible unifying force for the GOP.
Hang in there.
Rush Limbaugh said there is an 80% probability that Hillary would be. That really depressed me. But I have not given up hoping for a better candidate to come forward.
“The GOP ship will right itself”
I pray that you are correct.
The GOP is the ultimate national-family - we fight like cats and dogs - hate each other, etc.
Until it’s time to take on the REAL opponent.
Then - with occasional lapses (Dole, Perot) we rally.
I honestly think we’ll blow the 08’ POTUS election out of the water.
I don’t think it will be close.
I really hope you are right. There are so many reasons why it is important. I am especially concerned about our military and the war on terror. We need someone like Reagan who can go to the people and mitigate all the Media Myths.
My generation’s war was Vietnam, and I just do not want to see the Media and Liberals manufacture another defeat out of what should be victory. So I am praying for our leaders and our troops.
I read a thread this a.m. where Rooty is only leading the unannounced Fred Thompson by a couple points (4 IIRC). The poll was taken the 15th and 16th AFTER the debate. So that hanging curve Ron Paul tossed didn’t help.
***Here’s the latest InTrade results
Rudy has a 15 point lead as of today. He will be tough to bring down.
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
2008 Republican Pres Nominee(Others on Request)
Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 28.0 29.9 30.0 85172 +2.0
John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 27.3 28.2 27.3 83283 -0.3
Gov Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 18.0 18.2 17.9 65851 0
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 14.4 14.7 14.4 16182 +0.5
Newt Gingrich to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 3.7 4.2 4.2 36040 +0.4
Sen Chuck Hagel to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 2.8 2.9 2.7 32495 0
Gov Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 2.2 2.3 2.3 36364 -0.0
Michael Bloomberg to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 1.3 1.4 1.3 25737 0
Condoleezza Rice to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 1.1 1.2 1.1 87162 0
Sen. Sam Brownback to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.5 1.0 0.4 25453 0
Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.5 0.6 0.5 23449 0
Duncan Hunter to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.2 0.1 20773 0
VP Richard B Cheney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.4 0.5 0.4 27592 0
Gov Jeb Bush to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.3 0.4 0.3 34051 0
Tommy Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.2 0.5 0.3 25317 0
Tom Tancredo to be the Rep Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.2 0.4 0.2 17126 0
Colin Powell to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 0.1 0.4 0.1 23854 0
Rick Santorum to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.2 0.1 20091 0
Gov Bill Owens to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.2 0.1 20504 0
Lindsey Graham to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.2 0.1 15756 0
George Allen to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.2 0.1 36997 0
Tim Pawlenty to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 0.1 18878 0
Mark Sanford to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.2 0.1 20034 0
Elizabeth Dole to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.2 0.1 15961 0
Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 0.1 10885 0
Tom Ridge to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 0.1 14625 0
Retired General Tommy Franks to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 0.1 4314 0
Jim Gilmore to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.2 0.1 13365 0
Senator John Warner to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 0.1 3432 0
Sen Bill Frist to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.2 0.1 24049 0
Gov George Pataki to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.1 0.1 23535 0
Haley Barbour to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M - 0.2 0.1 17441 0
That focus on the Saudi prince is going to come back and bite him. It just emerged that one of his clients is Saudi Arabia.
So, we’re to believe that turning down a big check from a Saudi prince on behalf of the 9/11 families = tough on terror. But when the Saudi royalty are writing out a check with “Giuliani” on the payee line, apparently he’s eager to accept it.
“Rudy has a 15 point lead as of today. He will be tough to bring down.”
Hey Kevmo. “bring down by” when?
Thanks for earlier ping. I think I can add one of those vidoes you had on one of the posts.
I don't think so -- for all of the hype over Guiliani and his supposed anti-terrorism (based on what record?) he sounds more suited for a role in an "early responder" area, not a "stop it before it happens in the first place" one.
Do I hear taps?
Tough time moving tickets in the South, no less? That's always a reliable sign a candidate is sinking.
Looks like Rooty's strategy to throw conservatives off the Repub Party lifeboat is sinking, too (/sarc).
Course Rooty's Campaign Spin Machine will weigh in any moment now---saying tix sales are fabulous (AFTER the campaign purchases most of them with straw buyers).
A tactic practiced by several famous 'authors' like Bill & Hillary Clinton, Rick Warren and others. Warehouses and churches full of books.
Yeah——U-Haul rentals to “best-selling” authors is a key marketing area.
Hey Kevmo. bring down by when?
***I would hope his campaign would be over by Tsunami Tuesday. His latest strategy appears to be to bypass the smaller, earlier primaries and spend his money on TV ads, grabbing the dumb republican vote and emerge as the front runner after that. It could lead to a messy or brokered convention.
It’s actually a reasonably strong strategy, one that would take candidates with a lot of name recognition to counter. And unfortunately, Duncan Hunter does not have that name recognition. So it’s a strategy that plays to rudy’s strength and Hunter’s weakness.