USA Today/Gallup:Giuliani 30 Thompson 20 McCain 16 Romney 10

real clear politics ^ | 6/9/07

[finnman69]

Giuliani 30% Thompson 20% McCain 16% Romney 9% Gingrich 6% Huckabee 2% Hunter 2% Tancredo 2% Brownback 1% Hagel 1% Tommy Thompson 1%. Gilmore 0% Paul 0%

Clinton 37% Obama 21% Gore 16% Edwards 13% Biden 3% Kucinich 2% Richardson 2% Gravel 1% Dodd 0%

[RightPhalanx]

I wonder how Hagel managed to get to 1%.

[curiosity]

No poll tells us too much at this early stage, but this poll tells us exactly nothing.

Yeah, you're right. What I can't figure out is why anyone would bother producing a poll such as this. What's the point?

[cuky]

Actually of all the ntional polling firms Rasmussen is the only one that has shown Thompson with a lead. Thompson is generally 6 to 14% behind in all polls within the last month (excluding Rasmussen of course). RCP has a good chart that shows all the polls.

[curiosity]

It’s a state by state issue, and what sort of values those states enspouse. I think Rudy is a huge gamble on the party’s existance....could he win...maybe...but I’m not sure the GOP wants to lose out on many conservatives whom I know will bail.

There's no way a guy who dressed up in drag and marched in a gay pride parade is ever going to become the GOP nominee. No way, no how. He was a great mayor for NYC, but he's definitely not presidential material. Too liberal to win the GOP nomination, and too big of a mean SOB to (which is exactly what New York needed, BTW) to win the Dems' nomination.

Here's my prediction: Rudy gets his head handed to him in Iowa and New Hampshire. From that point on he'll drop like a rock.

National polls this early mean nothing.

[HoustonTech]

IMO Giuliani has everyone in the Republican Party he’s going to get. Even the McCain group would see him as too liberal for them. To be generous to him even if he were to climb another 5%, he would have only 35% meaning 65% are opposed to him. Those aren’t winning numbers.

The only reason no one has caught him yet (assuming this poll is accurate) is that there are too many struggling to get the conservative vote. This is why there needs to be a winnowing before too many primaries are held. Otherwise it will go to the convention, and this will be decided in some small smoke filled room.

[CheyennePress]

Give it time. None of these national polls matter, anyway. The early primary states are where it’s at.

Wins in the early states will define what goes on from there. These national polls are but name recognition exercises. Out of curiosity I asked a few friends if they could name three or more candidates running for each party.

These were college-educated, intelligent people. I was running about 50/50 on that one and most couldn’t really delineate their positions.

Again, you have an informed electorate in Iowa and New Hampshire. Look at those polls.

[Always Right]

I guess the Fred Express has not derailed Rudy yet.

Yeah, let's talk about that Duncan Express. You know you give me the motivation to hit every Duncan thread and post negative things about him.

[finnman69]

There's no way a guy who dressed up in drag and marched in a gay pride parade is ever going to become the GOP nominee. No way, no how.

So far Rudy has defied all expectations and continued to be the front runnner in what is most likely to be an unusual poltiical year due to the low approvals for Pres Bush and no 'incumbent'. Since Thompson has entered, Giuliani has indeed lost some support, as has McCain. But rudy's numbers appear to eb stabilizing (see poll chart below) I would say Rudy currently has a 50-50 shot at winning the nomination.

Here's my prediction: Rudy gets his head handed to him in Iowa and New Hampshire. From that point on he'll drop like a rock. National polls this early mean nothing.

Right now Rudy is second in Iowa and NH. National pools mean a lot as they directly influence fundraising. If you cant prove you can compete in the national election, you wont receive donations. Period. If Giuliani only wins some of the delegates in NH and IA, he will clean up in FL, SC, NJ, and CA. IA and NH are must wins for Romney and if he loses in those states its over for him.

[pissant]

You are always welcome on Hunter threads. FWIW, this is not a Fred thread, it’s a USA today poll thread.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Let me know if you need any help with that. I feel it is very important to hold Duncan’s feet to the fire over his rank as 411th of 435 for congressional attendance, as well as his penchant for supporting outrageous pork barrel spending.

Oh, but the spending was all for defense, right? Defense of what? Hydroponic tomatoes, end-of-life electronics, and teapot museums???

[Clam Digger]

Rudy may be polling higher in this one, but it still doesn’t alleviate the fact he’s an anti-constitution, pro-gay, pro-illegal POS scumbag.

[WOSG]

“Also, the last 2 Rasmussen polls have a slight lead for Thompson.

Rasmussen’s been polling people who are likely to vote in the primaries.”

So, this is cr*p poll showing non-Republican support for a man (McCain) who will crash and burn in the primaries.

[WOSG]

“There’s no way a guy who dressed up in drag and marched in a gay pride parade is ever going to become the GOP nominee. No way, no how. He was a great mayor for NYC, but he’s definitely not presidential material. Too liberal to win the GOP nomination, and too big of a mean SOB to (which is exactly what New York needed, BTW) to win the Dems’ nomination.”

It worries me that he continues to lead in the polls.

Anyone but Rudy/McCain.

[curiosity]

Rudy's numbers are coming from his name recognition. Too few people are paying attention to the campaign, so they aren't aware of his negative qualities yet. They just remember him as the 9-11 mayor, and maybe they remember his speach at the RNC. When the negative ads start to fly, he'll be toast.

Yes, national polls influence fund raising, but not this late in the game. Everyone already knows who the top tier candidates are.

[Auntie Toots]

I like Rudy, and I think he is qualified to be president....much more so than either Hillary or Obama......

[Rick_Michael]

I agree...I don’t think the GOP wants to go that far to the left [with Rudy]. We’re at a pivotal point, because of the war, and because of the choices in judges we can acquire.

Now, not that Reagan hasn’t made a mistake on that (as well as other Republican presidents), but we’re well on our way to a more conservative country....as long as we stay conservative. I just can’t vote Rudy just because of one platform. He might be able to defend us and do the right think on WOT and Iraq, but without morals a country will soon degrade.

I would have a very bad day if it was Rudy vs Hillary...well, you know. But I do believe and hope you’re right.

[Plutarch]

Just who are the 16% for McCain? Must be the name recognition only. Well, the S.S. McCain is capsized, and those 16% are going to have to drift over to some other candidate, likely whosoever has the highest name recognition.

[Ol' Sparky]

Right now Rudy is second in Iowa and NH.

Ghouliani isn't close in either state and that's why he is focusing on larger states that have later primaries. And, no Presidential candidate lost Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and won his party's nomination.

Recent polls have shown Giuliani trailing Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire.

"If they exceed expectations, all the better," said GOP consultant Tony Fabrizio. "If they don't, there is nothing lost, because they told everyone they weren't expecting to win anyway."

Political experts question the wisdom of such a strategy, wondering how a candidate who doesn't win or finish strongly in the early states can challenge someone else's momentum and recover on Feb. 5.

[finnman69]

There has been no primary season like this one before with so many big states so early. Romney is way ahead for now in IA and NH, but that may change. This is an unusual primary w/ no incumbent and a frontloaded compressed schedule. By normal expectations Giuliani should not be the frontrunner in the polls, but he is, and is most likely to stay there.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/07/09/analysis_giulianis_campaign_on_unconventional_path/
Analysis: Giuliani’s campaign on unconventional path

Some think Giuliani’s gamble could pay off. His schedule reflects the big prizes at stake: Florida, which votes just weeks after Iowa and New Hampshire on Jan. 29, has 112 delegates. California, with its 173 delegates, votes with more than a dozen other states, including New York, New Jersey and Illinois, on Feb. 5. Iowa and New Hampshire have 32 delegates each.

“Just because something has never happened before, there’s no reason why it can’t happen now. History is a guide to the future, not a straitjacket,” said GOP consultant Whit Ayres.

The best scenario for such a strategy to succeed is if there are different winners in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Fabrizio said.

“The key to Giuliani’s ultimate victory is that there be no one consensus conservative that emerges to challenge him; he needs more conservative candidates to split up the vote as you move to Feb. 5 and beyond,” Fabrizio said.

[Ol' Sparky]

By normal expectations Giuliani should not be the frontrunner in the polls, but he is, and is most likely to stay there.

Given that he has been behind Fred Thompson -- a candidate that hasn't spent a single dime or visited any of the primary states -- why on earth would you consider RINO Rudy the frontrunner, let alone one there to stay?

The only thing unusual about this race is that media has a liberal Republican candidate that it can make into the frontrunner.

There is tremendous ignorance among the generic Republican about all the candidates in the national polls. The closer we get to the primaries and the more the generic Republican discovers about Ghoulinai's beliefs, the more his poll numbers will decline, just they have in the early primary states where voters are more focused on the candidates.