Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[txhurl]

That was the 00Z run, shouldn’t there be a 1200z run out yet?

[Rte66]

Well, *some* of the mets have a theory that ‘canes tend to want to go *towards* bodies of land on their east and *away* from bodies of land on their west. Has to do with the axis of the quadrants not being symmetrical.

That’s why some think Dean will brush Jamaica to the north, instead of head-on and some think he will go up the Yucatan Channel and avoid the peninsula to his west.

Overall, ‘canes want to go north to the pole, anyway, if left to their own devices.

[Sunnyflorida]

The other thing we have is an informal posse. When the FL National Guard showed up, of course, we were very happy, but when they saw how prepared we were I think they were a bit amazed. They had bigger caliber but we had more (if you know what I mean)! I pity the idiot that would try to loot around here. We’d have some seriously obese gators!!

The other funny thing we set up was an informal power system for the neighborhood. The other thing I would do if I lived in hurricane (or fire) country is learn as much as you can about electricity. I got a few batteries and a trickle charger and inverter in case of short power outages. We also have a few small window shaker A/C units. Even with the big genny it is nice to have one or two because cooling off the whole house is a bit wasteful. I also got small PVC shower set up to use the pool water to bathe. We took two showers a day during the whole Charley episode. I also stock up on pool chlorine. I know for many a pool is a luxury but when it comes to hurricanes they are indispensable. I toss all the pool furniture in it before the storm and it comes out clean as a whistle. It is a virtually unlimited supply of cleaning and fire fighting water. If you got sub-pumps (I found 3 at a single garage sale for $20.)

If you live in hurricane or fire country I would suggest having a neighborhood plan. We do. And we do not rely on government, as good as it is here, to do squat for at least 2 weeks.

[Red Badger]

Yes, the tell-tale northward turn is inevitable at some point. This particular model may be more intuitive than the others..............

[NautiNurse]

Yikes—that model indicates 916 mb just prior to landfall.

[txhurl]

Someone at WU says the 1200z run puts it in at ‘south texas’.

[Red Badger]

[NautiNurse]

Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on August 18, 2007

 
...Dean remains an extremely dangerous hurricane...heavy squalls
spreading over Hispaniola... 

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from
the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince.  A Hurricane
Warning also remains in effect for Jamaica.  A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion. 

At 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for portions of Cuba...from the province of
Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect along the South Coast of the Dominican
Republic from Cabo engano westward to Barahona...and for coast of
Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti-Dominican
Republic border.   A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.

 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane
Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

  
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean...including western
Cuba...and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor the
progress of Dean.

 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 200 PM AST...1800z...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 69.4 west or about 505 miles...
815 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 175 miles...
285 km...south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

 
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
general track between the west and west-northwest is forecast during
the next 24 hours.  On this track...the core of the hurricane will
be moving south of Hispaniola today and early Sunday.

 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with
higher gusts.  Dean is an extremely dangerous category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  Some fluctuations
in intensity are expected during the next 24 hours. 

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km.

 
Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force hurricane
hunter plane was 930 mb...27.46 inches.

 
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over
Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches.  Amounts of 2 to
3 inches can be expected over the Dominican Republic and Haiti with
amounts up to 6 inches possible.  Additional rain accumulations of 1
to 2 inches are possible over Puerto Rico...with isolated storm
total amounts of 5 inches. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

Repeating the 200 PM AST position...15.9 N...69.4 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...150
mph.  Minimum central pressure...930 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM AST.

 
$$
Forecaster Avila

[LiveFreeOrDie2001]

Thanks Red Badger...

I an definately in the camp that it will hit in the northern 1/3rd of the current cone.

Prayers out to everyone to make the wisest choices in it's path.....

[eastforker]

Thats a large cone area, hope it stays to the south, but, sometimes these critters get a mind of their own and defy all the models.

[txhurl]

I wonder if that 3D animated GFDL model is experimental.

[steve86]

Wouldn’t those forces and tendencies, as for the ones that can be substantiated, already be built in to the better models?

[NautiNurse]

Just shy of Cat 5, 150 mph sustained winds, 930 mb.
...heavy squalls spreading over Hispaniola...
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...
...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 69.4 west
or about 505 miles east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 175 miles south of
Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[Rte66]

Nah, they’re individual *theories* espoused by a variety of mets. I was “just sayin’”.

[sweet_diane]

"I used to have a lovely shaded back yard, cool and breezy in the evenings. Ivan took all my trees and now I have a hot sweltering yard dying from lack of water, even though we run the lawn pump................."

That's rough. Hubby had a customer with a similar problem so she designed a pergola with a moveable awning.

We have a monster tree in front of our house and one in back..been very lucky

[Rte66]

I didn’t know what I was looking at. I’ll have you know I’m on dial-up - I clicked the link with great trepidation.

I waited and waited and waited for the pay-off! The big gloppy glob of dog poop finally, after an excruciatingly long time, moved onto the TX coast about Matagorda - so, if that is supposed to be the GFDL model, it’s a previous one from earlier today.

LOL, no more of those for me, but thank you!

[sweet_diane]

"I also did not rely on local design standards and talent. The key is learn and bug the crap out of builders, engineers and contractors."

I'm a smart girl. I married the best carpenter, designer, builder etc in town. He's not an engineer on paper, but he knows his stuff. When HE wants to evacuate what HE builds, you know it's gonna be bad.

[SE Mom]

Hmmm...

My gut says somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston. No idea why, though.

[eastforker]

My gut feeling as well and that puts me on the dirty side.

[Tuxedo]

My gut says no matter what, more rain coming to San Antonio.