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Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

Buoy Data West Caribbean

Storm Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dean; hurricane; hurricanedean; tropical; tsdean
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To: Rte66

That was the 00Z run, shouldn’t there be a 1200z run out yet?


801 posted on 08/18/2007 10:45:51 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: Red Badger

Well, *some* of the mets have a theory that ‘canes tend to want to go *towards* bodies of land on their east and *away* from bodies of land on their west. Has to do with the axis of the quadrants not being symmetrical.

That’s why some think Dean will brush Jamaica to the north, instead of head-on and some think he will go up the Yucatan Channel and avoid the peninsula to his west.

Overall, ‘canes want to go north to the pole, anyway, if left to their own devices.


802 posted on 08/18/2007 10:46:08 AM PDT by Rte66
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To: Sunnyflorida
The other thing we have is an informal posse. When the FL National Guard showed up, of course, we were very happy, but when they saw how prepared we were I think they were a bit amazed. They had bigger caliber but we had more (if you know what I mean)! I pity the idiot that would try to loot around here. We’d have some seriously obese gators!!

The other funny thing we set up was an informal power system for the neighborhood. The other thing I would do if I lived in hurricane (or fire) country is learn as much as you can about electricity. I got a few batteries and a trickle charger and inverter in case of short power outages. We also have a few small window shaker A/C units. Even with the big genny it is nice to have one or two because cooling off the whole house is a bit wasteful. I also got small PVC shower set up to use the pool water to bathe. We took two showers a day during the whole Charley episode. I also stock up on pool chlorine. I know for many a pool is a luxury but when it comes to hurricanes they are indispensable. I toss all the pool furniture in it before the storm and it comes out clean as a whistle. It is a virtually unlimited supply of cleaning and fire fighting water. If you got sub-pumps (I found 3 at a single garage sale for $20.)

If you live in hurricane or fire country I would suggest having a neighborhood plan. We do. And we do not rely on government, as good as it is here, to do squat for at least 2 weeks.
803 posted on 08/18/2007 10:47:19 AM PDT by Sunnyflorida ((Elections Matter)
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To: Rte66

Yes, the tell-tale northward turn is inevitable at some point. This particular model may be more intuitive than the others..............


804 posted on 08/18/2007 10:48:20 AM PDT by Red Badger (ALL that CARBON in ALL that oil & coal was once in the atmospere. We're just putting it back!)
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To: txflake

Yikes—that model indicates 916 mb just prior to landfall.


805 posted on 08/18/2007 10:48:37 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse

Someone at WU says the 1200z run puts it in at ‘south texas’.


806 posted on 08/18/2007 10:51:41 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: txflake; Rte66; eastforker; SouthTexas

807 posted on 08/18/2007 10:52:38 AM PDT by Red Badger (ALL that CARBON in ALL that oil & coal was once in the atmospere. We're just putting it back!)
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To: Red Badger
Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on August 18, 2007

 
...Dean remains an extremely dangerous hurricane...heavy squalls
spreading over Hispaniola... 

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from
the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince.  A Hurricane
Warning also remains in effect for Jamaica.  A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion. 

At 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for portions of Cuba...from the province of
Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect along the South Coast of the Dominican
Republic from Cabo engano westward to Barahona...and for coast of
Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti-Dominican
Republic border.   A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.

 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane
Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

  
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean...including western
Cuba...and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor the
progress of Dean.

 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 200 PM AST...1800z...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 69.4 west or about 505 miles...
815 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 175 miles...
285 km...south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

 
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
general track between the west and west-northwest is forecast during
the next 24 hours.  On this track...the core of the hurricane will
be moving south of Hispaniola today and early Sunday.

 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with
higher gusts.  Dean is an extremely dangerous category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  Some fluctuations
in intensity are expected during the next 24 hours. 

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km.

 
Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force hurricane
hunter plane was 930 mb...27.46 inches.

 
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over
Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches.  Amounts of 2 to
3 inches can be expected over the Dominican Republic and Haiti with
amounts up to 6 inches possible.  Additional rain accumulations of 1
to 2 inches are possible over Puerto Rico...with isolated storm
total amounts of 5 inches. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

Repeating the 200 PM AST position...15.9 N...69.4 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...150
mph.  Minimum central pressure...930 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM AST.

 
$$
Forecaster Avila

808 posted on 08/18/2007 10:54:11 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: Red Badger
Thanks Red Badger...

I an definately in the camp that it will hit in the northern 1/3rd of the current cone.

Prayers out to everyone to make the wisest choices in it's path.....

809 posted on 08/18/2007 10:56:02 AM PDT by LiveFreeOrDie2001 (They're "Terrorists" and they want to KILL YOU !!!)
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To: Red Badger

Thats a large cone area, hope it stays to the south, but, sometimes these critters get a mind of their own and defy all the models.


810 posted on 08/18/2007 10:57:08 AM PDT by eastforker (.308 SOCOM 16, hottest brand going.2350 FPS muzzle..M.. velocity)
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To: Red Badger

I wonder if that 3D animated GFDL model is experimental.

811 posted on 08/18/2007 10:58:54 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: Rte66
Wouldn’t those forces and tendencies, as for the ones that can be substantiated, already be built in to the better models?
812 posted on 08/18/2007 11:00:59 AM PDT by steve86 (Acerbic by nature, not nurture)
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; Amelia; asp1; ..
Just shy of Cat 5, 150 mph sustained winds, 930 mb.
...heavy squalls spreading over Hispaniola...
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...
...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 15.9 north...longitude 69.4 west
or about 505 miles east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 175 miles south of
Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

813 posted on 08/18/2007 11:02:00 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: steve86

Nah, they’re individual *theories* espoused by a variety of mets. I was “just sayin’”.


814 posted on 08/18/2007 11:04:06 AM PDT by Rte66
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To: Red Badger
"I used to have a lovely shaded back yard, cool and breezy in the evenings. Ivan took all my trees and now I have a hot sweltering yard dying from lack of water, even though we run the lawn pump................."

That's rough. Hubby had a customer with a similar problem so she designed a pergola with a moveable awning.

We have a monster tree in front of our house and one in back..been very lucky

815 posted on 08/18/2007 11:05:48 AM PDT by sweet_diane ("I still come down to talk to me, when the coast is clear.")
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To: txflake

I didn’t know what I was looking at. I’ll have you know I’m on dial-up - I clicked the link with great trepidation.

I waited and waited and waited for the pay-off! The big gloppy glob of dog poop finally, after an excruciatingly long time, moved onto the TX coast about Matagorda - so, if that is supposed to be the GFDL model, it’s a previous one from earlier today.

LOL, no more of those for me, but thank you!


816 posted on 08/18/2007 11:09:23 AM PDT by Rte66
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To: Sunnyflorida
"I also did not rely on local design standards and talent. The key is learn and bug the crap out of builders, engineers and contractors."

I'm a smart girl. I married the best carpenter, designer, builder etc in town. He's not an engineer on paper, but he knows his stuff. When HE wants to evacuate what HE builds, you know it's gonna be bad.

817 posted on 08/18/2007 11:09:41 AM PDT by sweet_diane ("I still come down to talk to me, when the coast is clear.")
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To: NautiNurse

Hmmm...

My gut says somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston. No idea why, though.


818 posted on 08/18/2007 11:10:10 AM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet -Fred'08)
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To: SE Mom

My gut feeling as well and that puts me on the dirty side.


819 posted on 08/18/2007 11:13:22 AM PDT by eastforker (.308 SOCOM 16, hottest brand going.2350 FPS muzzle..M.. velocity)
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To: eastforker

My gut says no matter what, more rain coming to San Antonio.


820 posted on 08/18/2007 11:15:48 AM PDT by Tuxedo (This Species Has Amused Itself To Death)
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To: Tuxedo

Man, you guys got 9 inches Wednesday! Where did you put it all? In the aquifer, I hope :)


821 posted on 08/18/2007 11:18:19 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: Red Badger

I’m thinking this will get caught up in monsoonal flow and may drench NM and AZ, (after slamming Old Mexico and S. Texas).


822 posted on 08/18/2007 11:20:32 AM PDT by eyedigress
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To: SE Mom
My gut says somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston.

Tough call, as Galveston isn't in the 5 day cone at this point. However, we know landfall ultimately trends to the right of the early predictions. Either way, the size of the storm ensures strong winds and rain well outside of where the center makes landfall.

823 posted on 08/18/2007 11:32:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: txflake

I don’t know where it all went - but outside of passing over a formerly dry creek (Huebner, Leon, Culebra) you can hardly tell it rained. This city is well designed to channel the water away - but still some people end up dying anyway. It’s sad.


824 posted on 08/18/2007 11:38:58 AM PDT by Tuxedo (This Species Has Amused Itself To Death)
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To: Tuxedo

Wasn’t there an updated GFDL at 2PM EDT? Didn’t see it yet.


825 posted on 08/18/2007 11:41:40 AM PDT by Tuxedo (This Species Has Amused Itself To Death)
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To: Timeout

It’s after the storm I hate. The last time we were without power for two weeks. I have a generator now. I really think this motor home idea isn’t bad idea though.


826 posted on 08/18/2007 11:44:26 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: eyedigress

I hope not. The ground in AZ is already saturated from Monsoons this past month. We’re watching closely.


827 posted on 08/18/2007 11:44:58 AM PDT by yorkie
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To: NautiNurse

I think Dean is going to be another Gilbert, same path and all.


828 posted on 08/18/2007 11:44:59 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ( “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping that it will eat him last.”)
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To: NautiNurse
Dial up freeps: don't go here!

Dean just got like 60% bigger and the eye went perfectly circular? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

Set the animation to 'rock'.

829 posted on 08/18/2007 11:54:37 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: SE Mom

My gut feeling is that this is going to go into Mexico and just give us all (yes, including SA, a bunch of rain). Man (or woman) cannot live by gut alone though:’)


830 posted on 08/18/2007 12:01:41 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: txflake

A terribly healthy storm.


831 posted on 08/18/2007 12:04:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NautiNurse; All

Jamaican radar, for those interested:

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp


832 posted on 08/18/2007 12:09:27 PM PDT by Rte66
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To: CindyDawg

AGREE! The aftermath is the worst. Is it ever hotter than after a hurricane?! Waiting in long gas lines for fuel for the generator.

I do have one of those outside showers that attaches to a faucet. Sure feels good while working long days just to get the debris out of the yard...I really hate that part.

*******************************************

A REMINDER NOTE FROM LAST YEAR’S THREAD:
When the power goes off, go to your panel and flip the “all house” switch to OFF.

This is to safeguard against the power company bringing your power back up when you aren’t home. If there’s damage to the incoming source it could be dangerous.

When they brought my power up after Ivan, I was home and noticed the lights were VERY bright...and surging. The power guys came and shut it down immediately. I had 220 running throughout my house. Fried the TV, microwave, and sprinkler control box. Could’ve burned down the house if I hadn’t been home! (The pole on the roof where the service comes in was damaged.)

So turn off the main until you can manually turn it back on with you there to monitor it.


833 posted on 08/18/2007 12:11:50 PM PDT by Timeout (I hate MediaCrats! ......and trial lawyers.)
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To: Timeout

Keep generators outside too.


834 posted on 08/18/2007 12:12:59 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: Timeout

We were buying ice right off the truck too. We waited in line for the truck and handed our dollar to the clerk. It never even made it into the grocery store. One bag per person.


835 posted on 08/18/2007 12:16:04 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg

Seems like an obvious point, but be sure to have some old fashioned cash $$$ on hand. If power is out, so are ATM’s and credit card terminals.


836 posted on 08/18/2007 12:23:40 PM PDT by Vermonter
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To: txflake

If it keeps on that path it looks as if it will go north of Jamaica and possibly right on between cuba and the yucatan into the gulf without slowing down.


837 posted on 08/18/2007 12:31:18 PM PDT by eastforker (.308 SOCOM 16, hottest brand going.2350 FPS muzzle..M.. velocity)
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To: eastforker

Many think the 5oclock models will have it up to Cat 5.


838 posted on 08/18/2007 12:34:05 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: CindyDawg

839 posted on 08/18/2007 12:39:17 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: txflake

Damn, look at the eye and CDO on that beast.


840 posted on 08/18/2007 12:42:14 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: dirtboy
Now here is the best link I've seen.... set it to rock in order to see how quick it doubled in size.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=crb&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

841 posted on 08/18/2007 12:46:07 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: Vermonter

Lot’s of change and ones too. Bigger bills can be a problem.


842 posted on 08/18/2007 12:47:12 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: txflake; dirtboy

I wonder if it has the Rovian pentagram cloud pattern in the eye yet? That’s how you can tell it is being steered by HAARP. /sarc


843 posted on 08/18/2007 12:51:01 PM PDT by Sender (A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man.)
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To: NautiNurse

Air Canada is running an extra section to Montego Bay as AC7060, a 767-200.

Looks like they are moving to get the Canadians out.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/ACA7060


844 posted on 08/18/2007 12:51:08 PM PDT by tcrlaf (You can lead a Liberal to LOGIC, but you can't make it THINK)
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To: tcrlaf

American has canceled 4 flights to Santo Domingo for this afternoon,

USAirways and Jet Blue have both canceled as well...


845 posted on 08/18/2007 12:53:58 PM PDT by tcrlaf (You can lead a Liberal to LOGIC, but you can't make it THINK)
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To: txflake
Good night!!!
I don't know why, but I had a hard time taking my eyes off this pic. I'm not sure what word to use for that type of beauty.
Prayers for all those in it's path. Wherever that may be.
846 posted on 08/18/2007 12:55:47 PM PDT by stentorian conservative ("I don't have to hire a consultant to develop a conservative image, I am a conservative." -D Hunter)
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To: txflake

Looks like the next recon will be treated to stadium effect in the eye. Amazing graphic.


847 posted on 08/18/2007 12:58:28 PM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: txflake

WOW!!


848 posted on 08/18/2007 12:59:09 PM PDT by Eaker (If illegal immigrants were so great for an economy; Mexico would be building a wall to keep them in)
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To: txflake

Thanks for that link. That is one mean Dean.


849 posted on 08/18/2007 1:00:29 PM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (The measure of a country is not how many people are wanting to come in, but how many want to leave.)
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To: Arrowhead1952

This thing needs to go a little N and miss Jamaica. Otherwise it could make NOLA look like Disneyland.


850 posted on 08/18/2007 1:16:53 PM PDT by txhurl
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