In Pictures: Most Appealing
Candidates For September
Posted on 09/23/2007 11:28:21 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
Fred Thompson holds on to the top spot in overall appeal in the September Forbes '08 Tracker presidential poll, though his gap over No. 2 candidate, fellow Republican Rudy Giuliani, is narrowing as Giuliani has suddenly started gaining ground. The top Democrat remains Senator Barack Obama, though his appeal is edging off.
In Pictures: Most Appealing
Candidates For September
At the same time, Thompson has now officially announced as a candidate for president, moving from just thinking about it to actually campaigning. Contiguous with his new official status, his awareness quotient has also begun to rise. While the precentage of our sample population who were aware of Thompson and his candidacy hovered little changed over the past few months at 38% -- likely the level a visible star might command who's played Manhattan District Attorney on the NBC hit show Law & Order – this month it has edged up to 41%, though his overall appeal has been shaved by 1 percentage point to 51%. And he remains the only candidate above the 50% mark in overall appeal.
The category of "total appeal" is a solid indication of how attractive a candidate is as a presidential contender. In this monthly study, 46 attributes are examined by Forbes.com and its partner, California-based ePoll Market Research. Neither Forbes.com nor ePoll defines any of the 46 attributes on which it polls its sample population--the same traits it has used to select high-level spokespeople for advertising campaigns for more than a decade.
Politics, along with selling cars, television shows or any other product, has become a complex marketing process. The 46 attributes help define trends and key drivers of what moves a person to respond or to react to the messaging and the messenger. In this case, the candidate's name is given to the polled population, which is then asked to match any of the attributes it believes is appropriate for the candidate in question.
This month, the Forbes '08 Tracker has highlighted, in addition to overall appeal, the traits of approachability, confidence and down-to-earthiness.
The concept of appeal is the closest the Forbes '08 Tracker will come to any sort of head-to-head popularity poll of the various announced or even unannounced contenders. The one caveat is that it's still early in the process, so some potentially highly visible--even appealing--candidates have not yet begun to weigh in with big media buys that would likely raise their scores dramatically. The poll measures a cross-section of Americans of voting age, asking first their awareness of each of these candidates, then their overall appeal, and finally, asks those polled to attribute one of the 46 traits selected by ePoll they feel describes that candidate.
This month, in addition to Thompson's gain in awareness and Giuliani's jump in overall appeal, the poll shows the leading Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, continuing to slide, as he has each month since June. Beginning at 45%, his overall appeal shrunk to 41% in July, 40% in August and has now fallen to 38%, while his awareness has held steady at 73%.
Meanwhile, the candidate perceived broadly as his principal rival in the primaries, Senator Hillary Clinton, held steady at just 31%--the same figure she has registered for the past three months. On the Democratic side, this puts her only one point behind John Edwards, but six points behind Al Gore. At 37% and still undeclared as a candidate, Gore's overall appeal jumped two points in the past month.
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson also posts a 38% appeal rating, but among quite a small audience, since barely 13% of those polled recognized him. His recognition quotient shrank three points in the past month. Considering the extensive visibility most of these candidates have acquired in televised debates, this is not a good sign for the Richardson campaign.
The field has grown to 15 candidates--six Republicans, eight Democrats and one Independent--with the arrival of Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a Republican, who has only now reached the 10% threshold of awareness by our sample population that allows views of him to be tabulated.
Even so, his overall appeal rating of 20% puts him in next-to-last place among all candidates, ahead only of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has not declared his candidacy for president. Two other Republican candidates, Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, still remain below the 10% threshold of awareness, excluding their results.
In the September results, a few candidates have shown substantial changes in their overall popularity. Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd has slid three points to 22%, and is now the lowest ranking Democrat. Arizona Sen. John McCain also continues on the downward slope, with his overall appeal shrinking by four points to 24%, the lowest since the Forbes '08 Tracker launched.
Other big losers in overall appeal are Republican Mitt Romney, who slid three points to 26%, Democrat Dennis Kucinich, who slid nine points to 26%, and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who's considered an independent. His appeal shrank three points to 32%, as he continues to insist he's not a candidate.
The biggest gainer is Democratic Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, who jumped three points to 25%, possibly attributable to his visibility on the Iraq issue as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Overall, there are five gainers among the presidential candidates in total appeal in September over August, while eight have lost ground, one is unchanged and one has just joined the field.
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It’s looking like Rudy. This Super Duper Tuesday isn’t good and my Uber Liberal friends feel the same on their side. Rudy has the name and although we here are readers of info most people have no clue in Feb who they want.
I just don't see it happening. The liberals may go for a New York Senator, but I don't see a New York Mayor with social liberal values getting traction in the South. I'm not seeing anything to imply that he's gaining ground, but there's lots of talk about Thompson.
Are you kidding when you call Mitt Romney a “big loser” in his appeal rating because it is off by three points? That is well within the margin of error. So while not a gain, you certainly cannot call it a a big loss either. Perhaps frustrating for Romney, but given the fact that half of Americans still say they don’t know much about him (also not mentioned), probably not so big a deal.
I think Romney and Rudy are the only candidates with a chance against Hitlery. The red states will never go for her no matter who runs, but Mitt and Rudy are the only ones who could make headway into the blue states.
FRed ping.
FRed Bumparoo.
Don't forget to vote in the new FR poll!!
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Um...Fred’s the only one with appeal over 50%, he’s LEADING Rudy...and you think it “looks like Rudy?”
Don’t you just love that pic?
Kids of more experienced parents have such an advantage.
FRED VETS, SIGN UP TODAY AT:
I disagree. FDT can hang onto every state that went red in 2004, plus take NH, WI, and possibly even PA, if GOP and conservative-leaning independent turnout is decent.
People are scared out of their wits by Hillary, and I don't know why. Several recent polls have shown that something like 50% of the general electorate won't vote for her - period. That's a huge disadvantage to have to overcome, and with her shrill, shrewish, unpersonable personality, I just don't see her doing it.
Rudy is unelectible.
His one claim to fame is 9/11 and he will be attacked by first-responder unions and others coming out of the wood work.
His personal life is a disaster — no moral high ground compared to Hillary even.
He’s a liberal that will not be supported by the conservative base. Right or wrong, they will stay home, just like they did in 2004.
Same way Bill did, using a 3rd-party candidate to split the opposition. Cue Bloomberg or Paul...
Of my liberal friends, all but one say that is one candidate that they WILL NOT vote for.
When push comes to shove, I’ll bet they will vote for her. Or maybe they’ll just stay home.
But you still have some time to work on them.
:^)
That “Forbes ‘08” in the title had me scared for a second. Considering everything else going on lately, it wouldn’t have surprised me in the least. I’m just waiting for Pat Buchanan and Bob Dornan to jump in.
I work on them constantly. I even offered to get them Hillary ‘08 stickers to put on their vehicles. They refused. I take them at their word. Actually, I think that some are coming around...teacher, retired union, women, college kids.
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Let's hope that by election day, the percentage of people who have heard of the candidates exceeds the percentage who vote.