Silence In Syria, Panic In Iran

To The Point News ^ | 19 September, 2007 | Dr. Jack Wheeler

[Salem]

One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in a state of complete amazement.

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports.  "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly.  The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

And that was before September 6.  Since then, it's panic-squared in Tehran.  The mullahs are freaking out in fear.  Why?  Because of the silence in Syria.

On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.  Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets.  Massive speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens' Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story.  It is not Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's.  Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil?

The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13):  Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World.  Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology."

Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world," with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,"  some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being introduced into Russian operation service."

While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:



Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel.  An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace.  And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6^th.

Nothing.

El blanko.  Silence.  The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada.  The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded.

Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless.  They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless.  As in naked.

Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.   I can tell you that there are a lot of folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament.  Let's face it:  scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too. 

On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's nuclear program."

All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats.  On Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3 missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack upon Iran by the US/Israel.  This was followed by Iranian deputy air force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response to any attack."

A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.  So our and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh.  Few things rattle the mullahs' cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also deadly serious.  The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.  Something is going to blow and soon.  The hope is that the blow-up will be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

But make no mistake:  an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90 days.  The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr?  It's possible it was North Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such Good News, October 2006).

Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an attack on Israel.

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point of the attack was not to destroy that target.  It was to shut down Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack.  Doing so made the attack an incredible success.

Syria is shamed and silent.  Iran is freaking out in panic.  Defenseless enemies are fun.

[SE Mom]

Interesting take on the Syrian Caper.

[RightWhale]

One thing about the next world war, which this could turn out to be. Popcorn will be rationed but we will all be in the war. It won’t be for entertainment.

[Son Of The Godfather]

I’d like to believe the Soviets sold the Syrians a fake bill-of-goods in a covert parnertship with the U.S. and Israel... They get cash and don’t have to worry about a Syrian pounding.

But Occam’s razor and all that, I’d say the Soviet “antiaircraft system” is simply leftover junk from their glory years.

[Camel Joe]

Pray tell what would you do with what is left of the Christians? Your suggestion is just another form of surrender. You are surrendering the lives sacrificed for Freedom and the rule of law for nothing more than a delay of the inevitable conflict. You do not yet understand that there is no room in Islam for our way of life no matter where on the planet or in the universe for that matter we hide. It is a lesson that will eventually be learned by all, it will most painful for those who refuse to see what the shadows hide from the light of truth.

[Bahbah]

"Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he reports. "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over and over again, ‘Do you think the Americans will attack us?' ‘When will the Americans attack us?' ‘Will the Americans attack us in a joint operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and on, endlessly. The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

Isn't this interesting!

[Hacklehead]

“Awesome! Best news I’ve heard all day. Only Democrats are saddened by this news.”

It’s just so unfair that the israelis have better equipment than the ragheads.

[MichaelP]

It may be that Israel had a little US help in jamming the radars. The aircraft are in the area anyway...

Mike

[Salem]

"It’s just a guess, though."

What id frustrating about ops like this, is the full and detailed accounts are not declassified for sometime, while we are left to sift through the pieces we do have access to and draw our own conclusions, filtered through the extensive military experience present at Free Republic.

Oh, to be a fly on the wall of the war room, though.....

[Shaun_MD]

When the hammer finally drops I might almost feel sorry for the sandworms. Almost.

[DoughtyOne]

You might think that at some point in time, Syria, Iran, Lybia and other idiot-stick nations of the Middle-East might figure out who would and who wouldn’t make a good suger-daddy.

Russia promised the latest equipment. Look where that got Syria.

Look at Dubai, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain (sp?), Kuwait, they’re doing very well by selling oil to the U.S. All Syria and Iran would have to do is wake up and start acting like members of the 21st Century, not the 12th, and their nations would do a lot better.

Can anyone kindof see this next scene taking place.

Russian military reps talking to selves: Okay, we’ll take the X part of of these and Syria won’t know the diffrence. They’ll be able to see aircraft, but anything under 5,000 feet and they’ll be blind. Heh heh heh.

Russian military experts in front of Syrian reps: Okay, here we have the latest radar defense systems in our inventory. We don’t even have these set up on our soil yet.

Syria Reps: Great! Here’s the cash.

Syrian Reps back home: We scored. Israel and the U.S. can just try something now and we’ll blast their aircraft back to Jacob and Esa’s time.

Russians at home: Heh heh heh...

Iraeli Mosad listening in to both parties: Heh heh heh...

[Kevmo]

Pray tell what would you do with what is left of the Christians?
***I follow the lead of Brother Andrew. He was instrumental in smuggling bibles and opening up eastern Europe for Christianity during the Iron Curtain. Now he’s moved his focus to Islamic countries.

Open Doors
Serving persecuted Christians Worldwide
http://www.odusa.org/

[LibWhacker]

The Norks... LOL!!!

That said, Pooty-Poot and company must be soiling their britches as well, in addition to the Syrians and the Iranians.

But I do wish we'd learn not to tip our hand so early in the game in the future. Go ahead, let all-out war to break out, THEN crush them, THEN humiliate them. As it is, they all get off cheap and easy -- and they should NEVER be allowed to get off cheap and easy.

[OKSooner]

"They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless. As in naked."

The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.

Isaiah 17:1

[Shaun_MD]

Time to put the fangs in and get the warface on.

[AFPhys]

Thanks for posting this incredibly interesting article.

Something really seems to be going on here that the Old Media just isn’t able to get a handle on ...

[RC2]

The big answer for Iran is “If Iran is attacked, it will by by the world. Then Syria is next.”

[Salem]

"I’ve just got to ask this question: Who is Dr. Jack Wheeler?"

More on him HERE.

I wouldn't be surprised if he posts at FREE REPUBLIC.  

[Tarpon]

A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US invasion of April 2003.

Is the cat who swallowed the canary not talking right now? This would be choice, broiled ever so tender. The Iranians/Syrians may have been loading Saddam's old chemical weapons on new Iranian long range missiles when boom.

[antinomian]

Hmmm...wonder if the Russians have any money-back guarantees?

I wonder if they sold that stuff on credit.

[woollyone]

one link no worky...but here it is...

“Why korea’s nuke test is such good news”

http://www.thevanguard.org/thevanguard/other_writers/wheeler_jack/061010.shtml