Posted on 01/03/2008 6:04:59 PM PST by sionnsar
MOSCOW. (Oleg Sorokhtin for RIA Novosti) – Stock up on fur coats and felt boots! This is my paradoxical advice to the warm world.
Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the 17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases.
The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason—solar activity and luminosity. The greater they are the warmer is our climate.
Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.
This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide, warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not undergone any serious check.
It determines decisions and instruments of major international organizations—in particular, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Signed by 150 countries, it exemplifies the impact of scientific delusion on big politics and economics. The authors and enthusiasts of the Kyoto Protocol based their assumptions on an erroneous idea. As a result, developed countries waste huge amounts of money to fight industrial pollution of the atmosphere. What if it is a Don Quixote’s duel with the windmill?
Hothouse gases may not be to blame for global warming. At any rate, there is no scientific evidence to their guilt. The classic hothouse effect scenario is too simple to be true. As things really are, much more sophisticated processes are on in the atmosphere, especially in its dense layer. For instance, heat is not so much radiated in space as carried by air currents—an entirely different mechanism, which cannot cause global warming.
The temperature of the troposphere, the lowest and densest portion of the atmosphere, does not depend on the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions—a point proved theoretically and empirically. True, probes of Antarctic ice shield, taken with bore specimens in the vicinity of the Russian research station Vostok, show that there are close links between atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and temperature changes. Here, however, we cannot be quite sure which is the cause and which the effect.
Temperature fluctuations always run somewhat ahead of carbon dioxide concentration changes. This means that warming is primary. The ocean is the greatest carbon dioxide depository, with concentrations 60-90 times larger than in the atmosphere. When the ocean’s surface warms up, it produces the “champagne effect.” Compare a foamy spurt out of a warm bottle with wine pouring smoothly when served properly cold.
Likewise, warm ocean water exudes greater amounts of carbonic acid, which evaporates to add to industrial pollution—a factor we cannot deny. However, man-caused pollution is negligible here. If industrial pollution with carbon dioxide keeps at its present-day 5-7 billion metric tons a year, it will not change global temperatures up to the year 2100. The change will be too small for humans to feel even if the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions doubles.
Carbon dioxide cannot be bad for the climate. On the contrary, it is food for plants, and so is beneficial to life on Earth. Bearing out this point was the Green Revolution—the phenomenal global increase in farm yields in the mid-20th century. Numerous experiments also prove a direct proportion between harvest and carbon dioxide concentration in the air.
Carbon dioxide has quite a different pernicious influence—not on the climate but on synoptic activity. It absorbs infrared radiation. When tropospheric air is warm enough for complete absorption, radiation energy passes into gas fluctuations. Gas expands and dissolves to send warm air up to the stratosphere, where it clashes with cold currents coming down. With no noticeable temperature changes, synoptic activity skyrockets to whip up cyclones and anticyclones. Hence we get hurricanes, storms, tornados and other natural disasters, whose intensity largely depends on carbon dioxide concentration. In this sense, reducing its concentration in the air will have a positive effect.
Carbon dioxide is not to blame for global climate change. Solar activity is many times more powerful than the energy produced by the whole of humankind. Man’s influence on nature is a drop in the ocean.
Earth is unlikely to ever face a temperature disaster. Of all the planets in the solar system, only Earth has an atmosphere beneficial to life. There are many factors that account for development of life on Earth: Sun is a calm star, Earth is located an optimum distance from it, it has the Moon as a massive satellite, and many others. Earth owes its friendly climate also to dynamic feedback between biotic and atmospheric evolution.
The principal among those diverse links is Earth’s reflective power, which regulates its temperature. A warm period, as the present, increases oceanic evaporation to produce a great amount of clouds, which filter solar radiation and so bring heat down. Things take the contrary turn in a cold period.
What can’t be cured must be endured. It is wise to accept the natural course of things. We have no reason to panic about allegations that ice in the Arctic Ocean is thawing rapidly and will soon vanish altogether. As it really is, scientists say the Arctic and Antarctic ice shields are growing. Physical and mathematical calculations predict a new Ice Age. It will come in 100,000 years, at the earliest, and will be much worse than the previous. Europe will be ice-bound, with glaciers reaching south of Moscow.
Meanwhile, Europeans can rest assured. The Gulf Stream will change its course only if some evil magic robs it of power to reach the north—but Mother Nature is unlikely to do that.
Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin, Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, is staff researcher of the Oceanology Institute.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
I sure hope so. I’m pretty sure that if this warming trend continues much longer, the AGW fear mongers are going to convince the general populace that we need to give away many of our auto/energy/heating freedoms, and tax fuel up the wazoo....all in their bogus claim of saving the planet.
bump^ -great post, backhoe!
He won’t either because he will have to give back his Nobel Peace Prize.
This conforms what I have suspected, the earth is in it’s natural heating/cooling cycle.
Wow, I guess that settles it then. Anything you'd like to add, like specific arguments?
“Anything you’d like to add, like specific arguments?”
Ask Fred, he knows.
Yeah, that’s what I thought.
I like Ruddiman’s hypothesis, because it’s reasonable and as “testable” as any other GW hypothesis out there.
Algorians claim we’re all gonna die because of man-made run-away global warming. (Oops — make that climate change, to cover any eventuality).
Opponents to Algore (i.e. rational people like FReepers) usually argue either that there is no global warming; or that there may be, but it’s entirely natural cycles.
Ruddiman gives us more ammo against the Goreheds. Only man-made global warming has kept us from a devastating ice-age for at least 2,000 years. We’re not gonna die, so long as we can keep up the good work of adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
I think to be precise, the Greenhouse Effect is real but it's been stretched way beyond any empirically justifiable limits for political purposes. Russians are especially experienced at detecting this phenomenon after seventy years of sifting through Soviet bullshit.
It’s a good summary.
Concide, to the point.
Which is why it will be ignored by the MSM and National Geographic, etc.
No, I think the quote, and the quoted scientist, are both pretty much right.
The envirowhackos have seen this coming, so now they’ve changed the propaganda lingo to “global climate change” (all caused by humans, of course) rather than global warming.
“What he’s saying folks is the Greenhouse Effect is false.”
The greenhouse effect is very real, otherwise the earth would be a much colder place . But the greenhouse effect is 95% due to water vapor, and only 5% due to CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, and other gases. The total human contribution to the greenhouse effect is approximately 0.28%, while 99.72% of the greenhouse effect is due to natural causes. Humans putting more CO2 into the air has very little effect on the earth’s climate. It does however make plant’s grow faster, and gets wacko power-mad environmentalists very irate.
Yes, the atmosphere retains heat due to water vapor and gas density but that is not the Greenhouse effect as known and modeled. The Greenhouse effect is increased air density from CO2 and other man-made heavy gasses creates a barrier which diminishes heat dissipation, raising the overall temperature -in aggregate! Lumping water vapor and everything else which naturally retain heat and are atmospheric constants into the model gives it undue legitimacy making it harder to debunk.
The underlying premise of the Greenhouse effect model is patently false and should be discarded, not tweaked and amended to correlate with other processes.
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