Posted on 01/28/2008 2:39:33 AM PST by levotb
Released: January 28, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain Gets Endorsement Boost, leads again in Florida
Giuliani passes Huckabee; is stuck in a distant third place
UTICA, New York – In what’s become a two-man game for the Republicans, Arizona Sen. John McCain now holds a slim lead over rival Mitt Romney while all others lag well behind in the Florida primary race, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby telephone tracking poll shows.
Boosted by a strong endorsement from Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, McCain has 33% support, compared to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who wins 30% backing. The two leaders have been locked in a tight contest ahead of Tuesday’s election. This three-day tracking poll, which surveyed 818 likely Republican voters, carries a margin for error of +/- 3.4% and was conducted Jan. 25-27.
Eight percent of voters remained undecided in the tight race.
In the battle for third place, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani is once again ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 14% to 11%. Huckabee had leapt ahead of Giuliani in yesterday’s three-day tracking poll, but he gave back three points in the last 24 hours and again trails Giuliani.
Voters who identify themselves as conservative, a group that represents more than half the sample, have also reversed themselves. After giving Romney the edge, McCain now has the support of 34% to Romney’s 33%. In yesterday’s tracking poll, Romney led among those voters with 34% of their support to McCain’s 28%. Moderate voters consistently prefer McCain, giving him 44% of their support in the most recent poll, compared to Romney’s 15%. Among “very conservative” voters, Romney fares far better, winning 48% support to McCain’s 13%. Huckabee is actually ahead of McCain among the “very conservative” voters, winning 20% support.
Republicans in Florida 1/25-27 1/24-26 1/23-25
McCain 33% 30% 31%
Romney 30% 30% 28%
Giuliani 14% 13% 15%
Huckabee 11% 14% 10%
Paul 2% 3% 5%
Someone else 3% 2% 2%
Not Sure 8% 9% 9%
Giuliani comes in second among moderates with 22% of their support.
McCain and Romney are in a dead heat among voters over 65, McCain with 35% and Romney with 34% of their support. That’s a change from yesterday’s poll, in which Romney had a slight edge. Seniors made up more than a third of those surveyed. Giuliani got support from 13% of that group and Huckabee 6%. Voters under 30, the smallest sub-group in the age demographic, liked Romney best, giving him 32% of their support. Giuliani was also popular among younger voters, getting 23% of their support to McCain’s and Huckabee’s 17%.
Romney had a tiny edge among female voters, with 32% of their support to McCain’s 31%. Meanwhile men preferred McCain to Romney, 35% to 28%.
Born Again Christians favor Romney slightly more than McCain in this most recent tracking poll - 30% to 29%. Southern Baptist minister Huckabee got 22% of their support, while Giuliani won just 7% support. That group makes up just under a third of the sample in the Florida GOP race.
Pollster John Zogby: “It is important to note that popular Florida Gov. Charlie Crist endorsed McCain Saturday and campaigned with him Sunday. Sunday alone, McCain had another big day, winning 38% support to Romney’s 31%. The key demographic to watch is the mainline conservative voter, and McCain’s good day Sunday was the result of his improvement among that group. He retains strong support from moderates while Romney enjoys strong support among very conservative Republicans.
“Romney holds a slight 24% to 20% edge over McCain as the second choice candidate that voters might turn to if they decide to jettison their first choices. But the race here is pretty stable – two-thirds of Florida Republicans had made up their minds at least a month ago, while the other third that has reached a decision did so more recently. There is both good news and bad news in this most recent three-day tracking poll for Mitt Romney when it comes to issues that are important to Florida Republicans: compared to the war in Iraq, almost three times more likely voters said the economy is the most important issue to them, which is seen as a strong suit for Romney. But just 10% said immigration was the most important issue to them, which helps McCain, a leading sponsor of a very unpopular immigration reform bill last summer. This one is another barn-burner for the GOP. We are watching the 8% of likely voting Republicans who say they have yet to make up their minds – they could make the difference here.”
For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit: http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1267
(1/28/2008)
****************************************************** While I believe Zogby's liberal bias is seen in some of his polling (he's never been a friend of conservatives, in my opinion), he's seen as being closer to the truth in polling than, say, Gallop and other liberal pollsters. What struck me wasn't so much his pronoucement of McCain's 3-pt. lead over Romney in Florida this early morning, but something he says in the following paragraph that does not bode well for Romney:
“Romney holds a slight 24% to 20% edge over McCain as the second choice candidate that voters might turn to if they decide to jettison their first choices. But the race here is pretty stable – two-thirds of Florida Republicans had made up their minds at least a month ago, while the other third that has reached a decision did so more recently. There is both good news and bad news in this most recent three-day tracking poll for Mitt Romney when it comes to issues that are important to Florida Republicans: compared to the war in Iraq, almost three times more likely voters said the economy is the most important issue to them, which is seen as a strong suit for Romney. But just 10% said immigration was the most important issue to them, which helps McCain, a leading sponsor of a very unpopular immigration reform bill last summer. This one is another barn-burner for the GOP. We are watching the 8% of likely voting Republicans who say they have yet to make up their minds – they could make the difference here.”
The section that troubles me is this:
"But just 10% said immigration was the most important issue to them, which helps McCain, a leading sponsor of a very unpopular immigration reform bill last summer."
That the Invasion by Mexico (continuing at a 5,000-10,000 per day rate along our Southern Border) is only important to 10% of Republicans is, I believe, not accurate, but there it is. Without emphasizing enough McCain's Amnesty efforts for illegals, Romney (instead, pushing his business background) stands to lose Florida in what I see as a huge calculated mistake by his advisors. Will Romney now rachet up his ads against McCain with just 30 hours before the polls open in Florida? Can he somehow gain back the 10 points he lost yesterday (He was up in one poll by 7 pts)?
Stay tuned...
Zogby also had McCain up by 3 on the eve of the Michigan primary. LOL
It’s time for Jeb to endorse Romney.
“Who are these people?”
counterpunch:
I had thought about that too, Jeb Bush’s silence. Perhaps he’s afraid that his brother’s super low approval rating would hurt Romney, and he’s probably right. But at this point, with 29 hours to go, would a Jeb Bush press conference with Romney at his side help Romney? Something to mull over this early morning.
Jeb is popular in Florida.
More popular with Republicans who will be voting there Tuesday than Crist.
counterpunch:
I hope you’re right, but will Jeb open his yap?
Rasmussen disagrees
But neither poll mentions what Pat Buchanan said on Sunday, that 400,000 Floridians have already voted.
“Who are these people?”
Exactly my thoughts, I would have thought the Republican voters wouldn’t go for such a leftist, even with the media nominating him for us.
Clinton or McClinton, nothing there for me to vote for.
I was for Fred, but I think he made a mistake by dropping out a bit late. If it’s true that 400K people have voted, and he received say, 10% of them (which could be higher), then there are 40K Floridians lost their votes. Is there a mechanism in place to deal with such issue?
YaYa123
That’s right! I forgot about the absenteers in FL!! Don’t they vote more conservative, gvenerally?
Take it for what it is worth, this story mainly focuses on the Dems, but it has a blurb about Rudys early voting focus, and how his push to his voters to vote early. We will see tomorrow if it pays off.
Snip from article...
That development offers at least a glimmer of hope to Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York. He has made a calculated effort to get his supporters to vote early over the past month, hoping to bank a substantial number of votes before losses in other early states raised questions about his viability and his competitors arrived in the state, driving down his numbers in the polls.
As late as Thursday, Mr. Giuliani, at an appearance here, was still reminding supporters to vote for him early, as he has done at almost every stop here this month. “We are already voting, right?” he asked the crowd.
-Snip
paudio
Yes, there IS a mechanism for dealing with such a disaster...it’s called PRAYING!!
Does this mean 33% of Republicans support McCain’s illegal alien amnesty and global warming carbon credits proposals, or these issues do not matter to them?
Do my freeper friends think that Julieannie votes will hurt McShame? They certainly wouldn’t hurt Romney! I mean, Julieannie voters switching to Romney? Unlikely, except perhaps some women voters who find him appealing, lookswise...I mean, the GOP is still divided 4 ways to sundown. Even Suckabee’s projected 11% could hurt Romney, but will Julieannie’s larger vote hurt MsShame more? Jee, whiz! SO much going on there...
As ridiculous as it sounds, sometimes I wonder if the whole thing isn't completely rigged. I have not encountered any McCain supporters IRL, and only a small handful online. Romney is also mostly disliked, except for by some here on FR. Meanwhile, Paul can bring in up to 6 million in one day from relatively small donations, he's like a rock star on the internet, (other than FR of course) his rallies bring in crowds in the thousands unlike the other uninspiring GOP candidates, he has over 100,000 meet-up members in over 1000 cities and 30 countries...yet he's supposedly only at "6 percent" in the polls. It makes zero sense, and makes me wonder who the hell is voting for the same old, hot-air status-quo RINOs.
vamoose
Zogby says “the 8% undecided Republican voters are critical”.
This is where the game gets very dicey and even polls are rigged.
I’m still trying to figure out how Obama was up by 10-15 points in the polls, then wins by 28.
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