Posted on 01/28/2008 2:39:33 AM PST by levotb
Released: January 28, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain Gets Endorsement Boost, leads again in Florida
Giuliani passes Huckabee; is stuck in a distant third place
UTICA, New York – In what’s become a two-man game for the Republicans, Arizona Sen. John McCain now holds a slim lead over rival Mitt Romney while all others lag well behind in the Florida primary race, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby telephone tracking poll shows.
Boosted by a strong endorsement from Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, McCain has 33% support, compared to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who wins 30% backing. The two leaders have been locked in a tight contest ahead of Tuesday’s election. This three-day tracking poll, which surveyed 818 likely Republican voters, carries a margin for error of +/- 3.4% and was conducted Jan. 25-27.
Eight percent of voters remained undecided in the tight race.
In the battle for third place, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani is once again ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 14% to 11%. Huckabee had leapt ahead of Giuliani in yesterday’s three-day tracking poll, but he gave back three points in the last 24 hours and again trails Giuliani.
Voters who identify themselves as conservative, a group that represents more than half the sample, have also reversed themselves. After giving Romney the edge, McCain now has the support of 34% to Romney’s 33%. In yesterday’s tracking poll, Romney led among those voters with 34% of their support to McCain’s 28%. Moderate voters consistently prefer McCain, giving him 44% of their support in the most recent poll, compared to Romney’s 15%. Among “very conservative” voters, Romney fares far better, winning 48% support to McCain’s 13%. Huckabee is actually ahead of McCain among the “very conservative” voters, winning 20% support.
Republicans in Florida 1/25-27 1/24-26 1/23-25
McCain 33% 30% 31%
Romney 30% 30% 28%
Giuliani 14% 13% 15%
Huckabee 11% 14% 10%
Paul 2% 3% 5%
Someone else 3% 2% 2%
Not Sure 8% 9% 9%
Giuliani comes in second among moderates with 22% of their support.
McCain and Romney are in a dead heat among voters over 65, McCain with 35% and Romney with 34% of their support. That’s a change from yesterday’s poll, in which Romney had a slight edge. Seniors made up more than a third of those surveyed. Giuliani got support from 13% of that group and Huckabee 6%. Voters under 30, the smallest sub-group in the age demographic, liked Romney best, giving him 32% of their support. Giuliani was also popular among younger voters, getting 23% of their support to McCain’s and Huckabee’s 17%.
Romney had a tiny edge among female voters, with 32% of their support to McCain’s 31%. Meanwhile men preferred McCain to Romney, 35% to 28%.
Born Again Christians favor Romney slightly more than McCain in this most recent tracking poll - 30% to 29%. Southern Baptist minister Huckabee got 22% of their support, while Giuliani won just 7% support. That group makes up just under a third of the sample in the Florida GOP race.
Pollster John Zogby: “It is important to note that popular Florida Gov. Charlie Crist endorsed McCain Saturday and campaigned with him Sunday. Sunday alone, McCain had another big day, winning 38% support to Romney’s 31%. The key demographic to watch is the mainline conservative voter, and McCain’s good day Sunday was the result of his improvement among that group. He retains strong support from moderates while Romney enjoys strong support among very conservative Republicans.
“Romney holds a slight 24% to 20% edge over McCain as the second choice candidate that voters might turn to if they decide to jettison their first choices. But the race here is pretty stable – two-thirds of Florida Republicans had made up their minds at least a month ago, while the other third that has reached a decision did so more recently. There is both good news and bad news in this most recent three-day tracking poll for Mitt Romney when it comes to issues that are important to Florida Republicans: compared to the war in Iraq, almost three times more likely voters said the economy is the most important issue to them, which is seen as a strong suit for Romney. But just 10% said immigration was the most important issue to them, which helps McCain, a leading sponsor of a very unpopular immigration reform bill last summer. This one is another barn-burner for the GOP. We are watching the 8% of likely voting Republicans who say they have yet to make up their minds – they could make the difference here.”
For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit: http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1267
(1/28/2008)
****************************************************** While I believe Zogby's liberal bias is seen in some of his polling (he's never been a friend of conservatives, in my opinion), he's seen as being closer to the truth in polling than, say, Gallop and other liberal pollsters. What struck me wasn't so much his pronoucement of McCain's 3-pt. lead over Romney in Florida this early morning, but something he says in the following paragraph that does not bode well for Romney:
“Romney holds a slight 24% to 20% edge over McCain as the second choice candidate that voters might turn to if they decide to jettison their first choices. But the race here is pretty stable – two-thirds of Florida Republicans had made up their minds at least a month ago, while the other third that has reached a decision did so more recently. There is both good news and bad news in this most recent three-day tracking poll for Mitt Romney when it comes to issues that are important to Florida Republicans: compared to the war in Iraq, almost three times more likely voters said the economy is the most important issue to them, which is seen as a strong suit for Romney. But just 10% said immigration was the most important issue to them, which helps McCain, a leading sponsor of a very unpopular immigration reform bill last summer. This one is another barn-burner for the GOP. We are watching the 8% of likely voting Republicans who say they have yet to make up their minds – they could make the difference here.”
The section that troubles me is this:
"But just 10% said immigration was the most important issue to them, which helps McCain, a leading sponsor of a very unpopular immigration reform bill last summer."
That the Invasion by Mexico (continuing at a 5,000-10,000 per day rate along our Southern Border) is only important to 10% of Republicans is, I believe, not accurate, but there it is. Without emphasizing enough McCain's Amnesty efforts for illegals, Romney (instead, pushing his business background) stands to lose Florida in what I see as a huge calculated mistake by his advisors. Will Romney now rachet up his ads against McCain with just 30 hours before the polls open in Florida? Can he somehow gain back the 10 points he lost yesterday (He was up in one poll by 7 pts)?
Stay tuned...
Yep. The same crew that had Obama up by double digits in NH.
Every state that has a primary is always “The State” a few days before they hold elections. McCain won SC, he will win FLA as well. Rudy should pull up the stakes and go home because he is done. A few days after the FLA primary it will be forgotten and Super 2’sday will be all the rage. The Huckster will sweep the South and take a huge chunk of the Super 2’sday delegates. Myth and McNugget will change their rhetoric to “wait until California and NY” neither of which ever go to Republicans.
It looks like the Huckster or Myth as the nominee. Yet, one week before the convention, aliens will land on Earth and name Ron Paul as de facto ruler. There will be no more wars or work or traffic accidents and broccoli will no longer stick between your teeth. The rules and regulations put forth by the aliens will be framed in such a way that only gynecologists from Texas can interpret it. The World Government will no longer spend themselves into deficit, but will actually make money from the sales generated by the million acre shrimp farms dispersed throughout the world. The world currency will be tied to the shrimp standard. No currency will be issued that can’t be backed up by shrimp. I spose that about covers it. :)
Ron Paul is a Libertarian running in a Republican primary. Usually Libertarian’s top candidate runs under the Libertarian Party banner and thus get essentially zero attention. Paul decided years ago to advance his agenda by cloaking himself in GOP clothing and the enthusiasm of his supporters is because 1) it allows a frontal assault on all that they feel is wrong with mainstream conservatism and 2) he is a simplistic anti-war advocate. There is no massive fudging of the numbers. Positions aside, Paul’s rhetoric coupled with his overly earnest speaking style are simply nothing that attracts the kind of broadbased appeal necessary to win.
Ron Paul is in essence the first semi-viable Libertarian candidate for the Presidency.
That’s yesterday’s Rasmussen...before the Crist & FL endorsements of McVain...when does Rasmussen release today?
Hopefully Jeb will come out for Romney...but I have my doubts.
"If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism. I think conservatism is really a misnomer just as liberalism is a misnomer for the liberals–if we were back in the days of the Revolution, so-called conservatives today would be the Liberals and the liberals would be the Tories.The basis of conservatism is a desire for less government interference or less centralized authority or more individual freedom and this is a pretty general description also of what libertarianism is." - Ronald Reagan
Really? I live here and pay very close attention to politics and I don’t know a single undecided voter who turned to McCain based on Crist’s endorsement.
Charlie Crist is the very kind of Republican that has gotten the party into deep trouble. He is not a conservative, at least not in my book.
McCain will do well in Florida, after all it’s a conglomeration of people from all over the country and they bring with them their political leanings and basic political nature. McCain might well win, but it won’t be by a huge margin, and despite what the desperately pro-McCain MSM will say it’s not a an indication that McCain will be the nominee. Some years there’s simply no contest, but this year it’s close and it’s not going to be settled by a single state primary.
Slowly the masses are beginning to understand that just because the MSM says something it’s not necessarily true. The bloom is off that rose and people are realizing that the MSM tends to present a situation as they would like it to be, knowing that the perception that it’s already so will help to make it come to pass.
The MSM is doing it’s best to convince people that McCain is the man. That doesn’t make it so.
I too am certain that’s the case. Don’t know how they do it, or why we can’t get the goods on them, but there’s no way they can be as far off as they’ve been so many times and not be rigged.
Polls have become nothing more than another tool of the MSM to steer the outcome of elections. They know that a lot of people have absolutely no idea of what a particular candidate supports or opposes, they just see that so-and-so is ahead in the polls and vote for that person.
Good grief! I have a better chance of winning the nomination than does the Huckster.
Any domestic issue Paul may be right about is IRRELEVANT if he doesn't have a firm grasp on national security. I can accept an opposition to fighting in Iraq or placement of troops in foreign locales. What I can't accept is a total supposition that all our enemies have been created by us. That is not true and taints almost everything he says in regards to foreign policy.
Look I did a poll and let me tell you I didn’t say immigration was most important, even though it is, because I was embarrassed! Even though I chose Romney in 2006 for THAT reason and it is my #1 issue. Floridians are not pro amnesty.
This poll is at odds with others as far as demographics, but I have decided Florida is a really hard state to poll for, it is so different.
It means they believe his lies.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_republican_primary
RASMUSSEN HAS MITT AND JOHNBOY TIED 31 to 31...
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_republican_primary
Rasmussen has them 31 to 31 ...... I am depressed.
The most recent polls from every polling company in the last few days have McCain on top or the race tied.
Polls such as Rasmussen that had Romney on top have seen a strong swing toward McCain.
I re-checked and Zogby had McCain by 1 in Michigan b4 the primary and of course Romney won by 8.
However, it is still terribly close and futures have turned against Mitt.
Anyone here who doesn’t understand this simple fact: the GOP establishment is trying to bring down the curtain. They have settled on McCain and want this contest over. If Mitt loses tomorrow, it is over, and anyone who believes otherwise is naive.
I am furious that the establishment would rally around this fraud who has poked his finger in our eyes for 20 years. He is also a loser in November to either Hillary or Obama.
IMO, it is the neoconservatives who have the wrong "grasp" on foreign policy and national security. For a number of reasons, but just to name one, our borders are open while at the same time they say we're in the middle of a "war on terror" - how great on "national security" is that?
And as Paul has said, traditionally it has been the Republican party who stopped the wars and the Democrats who were for the Wilsonian foreign policy. We were the ones, just 10 years ago, who slammed Clinton for things like going to war to enforce UN resolutions, nation building/policing the world. The very things now Republicans are cheering for.
Also, other than McCain, Paul is the only one of the remaining GOP candidates who has served in the military. And as much as the Paul haters on this site like to dismiss, according to some studies, he has received more campaign contributions from vets and military than the other candidates. In fact, Paul has been one of the few that I have even heard speak (from the heart) about the vets and how poorly they have been treated. So yeah, he may not have the establishment neoconservative ideas on foreign policy, but his is the constitutional position, the traditional Republican position, and the one the founders advised.
Chin up... the MSM is pulling out all the stops for McCain... this had to be expected... it’s up to Florida Republicans now... if the party wants to be saddled with a 72-year old loser who can barely string a few coherent sentences together in a debate against Hillary or Obama, then they deserve to lose in November.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.