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Super Tuesday Polling: Mittmentum?
Captain's Quarters ^ | Feb. 04, 2008 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 02/04/2008 5:49:24 AM PST by jdm

Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics have done their best to keep up with the Super Tuesday primaries across over 20 states, and the polling seems to show a slight shift in momentum for Mitt Romney, at least in California. Mitt has pulled into a tie with John McCain, whose support among moderates made this a more likely win for the Arizona Senator:

In California, Republican Primary Voters are evenly divided between John McCain and Mitt Romney. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain attracting 38% of the vote and Romney earning an identical 38%. Mike Huckabee is a distant third at 10%, Ron Paul picks up 6%, and 6% say they’ll vote for some other candidate.

Earlier in the week, McCain had a small advantage over Romney. Since then, Giuliani dropped out of the race and endorsed McCain. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger also endorsed the GOP frontrunner. While those events may have helped McCain, a conservative backlash for anybody-but-McCain appears to have helped Romney.

Romney leads 42% to 37% among conservative voters while McCain leads by eleven points among political moderates. McCain has a slight lead among men while Romney leads among women.

Zogby has Romney on top by eight in the Golden State. If that holds, Romney could pull off an impressive win and secure more delegates than he'd dreamed in California. Zogby, however, is normally an unreliable predictive indicator, and Rasmussen's polling has proven more reliable than most.

Rasmussen also has Romney behind by four nationally in its daily tracking poll. That is a step backwards for Romney, who had tied McCain in its tracking poll last week. The tracking polls are not as reliable as the standard Rasmussen polling either, but the fluctuations probably capture the volatility in the race accurately enough.

Real Clear Politics' polling aggregates don't show much Mittmentum elsewhere. Romney only has a commanding lead in Massachusetts, while McCain leads by significant margins in at least a half-dozen major states, including the winner-take-all New York, New Jersey, and Arizona primaries. If Romney plans to battle McCain to a draw tomorrow, he'll have to overcome a 200-delegate head start.


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; supertuesday; supertuesday2008

1 posted on 02/04/2008 5:49:25 AM PST by jdm
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To: jdm
6% say they’ll vote for some other candidate

That dang Mickey Mouse! Well, I guess it's somewhat of a home state for him....

2 posted on 02/04/2008 5:58:43 AM PST by Mygirlsmom (One of my fears is McCain will lose in Nov. The other is that he will WIN)
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To: jdm
McCain winner-take-all wins

101 New York
58 Missouri
53 Arizona
52 New Jersey
30 Connecticut
294 delegates just from winner-take-all

Romney winner-take-all wins

36 Utah

Unknown advantage winner-take-all

25 Montana
18 Delaware

3 posted on 02/04/2008 6:05:39 AM PST by JohnnyZ ("Make all the promises you have to" -- Mitt Romney)
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To: JohnnyZ

Exactly!


4 posted on 02/04/2008 6:06:37 AM PST by moderate_conservative
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To: JohnnyZ

Sick of McClaim. Did everything against conservative values, and now claims he is a conservative.


5 posted on 02/04/2008 6:11:15 AM PST by RedRepublic
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To: jdm

A vote for Mike Huckabee is a vote for John McCain.


6 posted on 02/04/2008 6:13:09 AM PST by counterpunch (McCain/Kennedy '08)
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To: JohnnyZ

Montana is definitely Romney territory.


7 posted on 02/04/2008 6:13:54 AM PST by counterpunch (McCain/Kennedy '08)
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To: jdm

I hope there is “Mittmentum”.


8 posted on 02/04/2008 6:15:14 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: counterpunch
Montana is definitely Romney territory.

He's the only one to campaign there. We'll see. There are a very small number of people who vote. I'd imagine Romney got a lot of Mormons into precinct positions.

9 posted on 02/04/2008 6:18:12 AM PST by JohnnyZ ("Make all the promises you have to" -- Mitt Romney)
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To: jdm
Zogby, however, is normally an unreliable predictive indicator, and Rasmussen's polling has proven more reliable than most.

This may be true on the whole, but in Florida, Rasmussen had Romney up by about 2-3% and Zogby had McManiac up by about 5-6%, and as it turned out, Zogby hit it spot-on in FL.

10 posted on 02/04/2008 6:18:18 AM PST by nfldgirl
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To: RedRepublic
Sick of McClaim Romney. Did everything against conservative values, and now claims he is a conservative.
11 posted on 02/04/2008 6:19:10 AM PST by JohnnyZ ("Make all the promises you have to" -- Mitt Romney)
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To: Mean Maryjean

Rasmussen’s polling has been more weighted to Romney than other polls, and has underestimated McCain. I suspect his turnout screening is tighter and higher turnout has pushed things McCain’s way.


12 posted on 02/04/2008 6:23:09 AM PST by JohnnyZ ("Make all the promises you have to" -- Mitt Romney)
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To: JohnnyZ
Yeah, your McClaim made many deals with libs in the Senate that are not supported by the majority of conservatives. Can't wait to see those "independents" dump him in the general election.
13 posted on 02/04/2008 6:24:34 AM PST by RedRepublic
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To: JohnnyZ

McCain is going to leave the GOP when he doesn’t get the nomination this time.
Maybe you can follow him out : )


14 posted on 02/04/2008 6:27:07 AM PST by counterpunch (McCain/Kennedy '08)
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To: RedRepublic

John McCain changed after the 2000 election. Now he will try to return to being the pre-2000 McCain. It won’t work.


15 posted on 02/04/2008 6:27:27 AM PST by GOP_Lady (I'm a MITTen!)
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To: Mean Maryjean

...”Zogby hit it spot-on in FL.”

Exactly. And I sure hope and pray Zogby’s spot-on in California too.

After McCain’s terrible performance in the debate last week, maybe Republicans in California are beginning to wise up to the fact that McCain would make a very poor nominee.


16 posted on 02/04/2008 6:32:11 AM PST by tabsternager
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To: counterpunch

Believe me, I’ve thought of leaving the GOP. Too many scumbag liberals like Mitt as officeholders.


17 posted on 02/04/2008 6:32:32 AM PST by JohnnyZ ("Make all the promises you have to" -- Mitt Romney)
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To: GOP_Lady

But it is working and will likely continue to work. The American People as a whole do not follow politics as do Freepers and they will believe whatever the MSM tells them.
How else can you explain McCain winning anywhere among Republicans.... how soon they forget Keating, alliances for bad legislation with Feingold, and Kennedy, and Lieberman.
And perhaps one of his worst moves, leading the gang of 14!


18 posted on 02/04/2008 6:33:00 AM PST by Froggie
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To: jdm

I’m supporting John McCain. I didn’t used to, but now I do.


19 posted on 02/04/2008 6:42:11 AM PST by No Dems 2004
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To: counterpunch

Agreed.


20 posted on 02/04/2008 6:51:54 AM PST by lone star annie (Two more days to save the Republic from Invasion)
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To: jdm
Liberals believe ...
REPEAT THE LIE, LONG ENOUGH AND LOUD ENOUGH ... AND IT'LL BECOME 'TRUE'.

McCain is mentally unstable, and would put this country in grave danger.

But let prophesy be fulfilled...

"So shall the LORD bring upon you all evil things..."

"Moderate" is the key here, and it's unacceptable.

You would have this piece of garbage "McCain" run the party?

We need a song based on "Next Time ... He'll Think Before He Cheats" by Carrie Underwood , " about McCain.

Read Mark Levin

So I ask again. Do you really want McCain?
21 posted on 02/04/2008 6:57:55 AM PST by Yosemitest (It's simple, fight or die.)
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To: JohnnyZ

I hope you are happy with Amnesty. McCain (and Hillary, Obama) guarantee amensty for illegals. Romney at least would veto it and give hope to this country. People like you allow amnesty by rooting for McCain.


22 posted on 02/04/2008 7:06:00 AM PST by tanaka
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To: JohnnyZ

McCain went much, much farther than Romney in pushing liberal policies. But we all know you don’t care about McCain’s liberal positions because you are for amnesty. And Romney would never allow an amnesty, so that’s why you are against him.


23 posted on 02/04/2008 8:05:04 AM PST by CottonBall (The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation. (Henry David Thoreau, "Walden", 1854 ))
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To: tanaka; JohnnyZ
I hope you are happy with Amnesty. McCain (and Hillary, Obama) guarantee amensty for illegals. Romney at least would veto it and give hope to this country. People like you allow amnesty by rooting for McCain.

That's exactly why he's anti-Romney. He's all for amnesty.
24 posted on 02/04/2008 8:05:59 AM PST by CottonBall (The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation. (Henry David Thoreau, "Walden", 1854 ))
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To: Yosemitest
She lies less than John McCain. She's smarter than John McCain, so that when she's caught shamelessly lying, at least the Clintons know they've been caught lying. McCain is so stupid, he doesn't even know he's been caught.

That's exactly what he did in the last debate. He reminded me of a little kid that keeps repeating a lie to get out of trouble, even when it's obvious it's a lie.

I will also vote for Hillary if McCain is the nominee. Not because I think she's more conservative or smarter than McCain (which she very well might be), but because with her in office, conservative Republicans will get stronger. Having a common enemy will even unite the Republicans in Congress, many of which followed a RINO president over a cliff with amnesty and spending. With McCain, he will destroy the Republican Party from the inside. If you think we are fractured now, just wait. And many good conservatives will leave the party, increasing its shift to the left. And everything McCain does will be identified with the Republican Party, even though he will be in collusion with Democrats the entire time.

He will destroy the party from within, no doubt.
25 posted on 02/04/2008 8:14:57 AM PST by CottonBall (The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation. (Henry David Thoreau, "Walden", 1854 ))
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To: Yosemitest
Reagan sought compromise from a different set of beliefs and principles than McCain. It does a great disservice to historical accuracy and the current debate to continue to urge otherwise.

Levin is so amazing. He is so right on this. When Reagan reached across the aisle, he reached across to bring Democrats to his side. McCain will be reaching across, while quickly edging into a seat on the left. There is no comparison.
26 posted on 02/04/2008 8:18:02 AM PST by CottonBall (The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation. (Henry David Thoreau, "Walden", 1854 ))
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To: CottonBall

Unlike you, I support conservatives, not lying scumbag liberals.


27 posted on 02/04/2008 8:27:10 AM PST by JohnnyZ ("Make all the promises you have to" -- Mitt Romney)
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To: JohnnyZ

I would love to have a conservative to vote for at this point.

But now, we have to grow up and face reality. We have what we have.


28 posted on 02/04/2008 8:36:48 AM PST by CottonBall (The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation. (Henry David Thoreau, "Walden", 1854 ))
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To: CottonBall
If you think Mitt Romney is some kind of lesser evil that's your business.

But why are you attacking conservatives who continue to oppose him and cheer his demise? You admit he's not a conservative, at least.

Try to have some civility, if we truly are on the same side.

29 posted on 02/04/2008 8:42:03 AM PST by JohnnyZ ("Make all the promises you have to" -- Mitt Romney)
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To: JohnnyZ
But why are you attacking conservatives who continue to oppose him and cheer his demise? You admit he's not a conservative, at least. Try to have some civility, if we truly are on the same side.

Because, if you are cheering for a Romney demise, you will get McCain. And he will destroy the Republican Party, conservatism, and the country. I think he would do far more damage than a Democrat in office. The party is already falling apart -- with McCain as the nominee, all hell will break loose. As a conservative, where will you go then? We will have no place to go. And with McCain in office, every liberal policy he endorses with the Democrats will tarnish the Republican Party. Just as he has done in the Senate all these years.

I see a McCain nomination or presidency as doing much more damage to our long-term goals than a flip-flopper or even a Democrat in office.

I assumed you were pro-McCain, based on your post. Is that not true?
30 posted on 02/04/2008 8:52:09 AM PST by CottonBall (The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation. (Henry David Thoreau, "Walden", 1854 ))
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To: CottonBall

I’ll be voting Hunter or Thompson in my primary, most likely. But I could vote for McCain in a general election, where Romney is just such a blatant liar and opportunist that I cannot and will not vote for scum like that. I would much rather have a relatively honest pol with some liberal positions than a slimeball. But Romney is a slimeball who still has liberal positions, which puts him way beyond the pale.


31 posted on 02/04/2008 8:57:08 AM PST by JohnnyZ ("Make all the promises you have to" -- Mitt Romney)
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To: JohnnyZ

The way I see Romney is that he really doesn’t have a set liberal agenda. He bounces back and forth without having a set of principles that are obvious, so we have no idea what he really thinks.

McCain, on the other hand, has been steadfast in the last 20 years in backing liberal policies and agreeing with Dems over Republicans. I see his agenda as following liberal principles (except when it comes to the military). So we can tell what he will do easily - amnesty, higher taxes, reductions of liberties.

He also likes to be the ‘maverick’ and turn against those he is with. He’ll lash out at the Republicans in Congress, just as he’s done his entire career. He’s dangerous to the country and the party, much more than a liberal Democrat.


32 posted on 02/04/2008 11:01:53 AM PST by CottonBall (The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation. (Henry David Thoreau, "Walden", 1854 ))
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