Posted on 03/13/2008 6:42:17 AM PDT by bmweezer
In the latest Rasmussen Poll, an unnamed Democrat leads an unnamed Republican in the Electoral College count, 264 to 229 votes, with 45 votes considered tossups. While neither party can claim the 270 votes needed for the presidency, at this point in time, it looks like a Democrat will move into the White House on January 20th.
Not so fast.
First and foremost, the race in November will not be unnamed versus unnamed, but rather Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama versus John McCain. Second, despite what the pundits are saying (this is a Democratic year and the GOP is toast, blah, blah, blah), numbers this far out don’t look bad for McCain at all.
Consider this, of all the states, just Iowa (7 electoral votes) and New Mexico (5) go from Red to Blue, while just four Red states from 2004 are considered toss-ups (Colorado (9), Missouri (11), Nevada (5) and Ohio (20).
Let’s assume for the moment that Ohio - which has been a waste land of late for the GOP - goes blue this year. Let’s also assume that Iowa, and Colorado also go Blue. However, thanks to John McCain’s message - one that could appeal to more Independents than any other GOPer would this year - would allow the GOP to retain counts in Missouri, New Mexico and Nevada. In New Mexico especially (one of only two states that went blue to red in 2004), McCain’s immigration message could play well, and also in Nevada.
The count under this scenario: Democrats 288, Republicans 250.
Now, let’s consider a Blue state - or states - that could turn Red. First and foremost, is New Hampshire, that was the only state in 2004 that turned Blue after being Red in 2000. John McCain is very strong here, so let’s switch its four electoral votes to the GOP column.
The count: Democrats 284, Republicans 254.
Okay, one more. What other state could turn Red? You guessed it, the great state of Michigan, which is struggling economically thanks to a Democratic government and high state taxes (and whose Democratic votes didn’t count in January). Here John McCain’s message could resonate in a big way. Give the GOP another 17 votes.
The count: Republicans 271, Democrats 267.
And this does not take into account Washington (11) and Pennsylvania (21) each state which is historically Blue, but this year has John McCain up in recent polls.
Hmm.
Want a far easier path to 270? Consider this: If Ohio goes to the Dems, but New Hampshire turns red, McCain wins 270-268. I kid you not. And of course, it is still too early to know that a protracted Democratic primary will mean to its party’s eventual winner.
So, in summary is this: Thanks to McCain’s unique appeal (MCCAIN’S APPEAL WITH INDEPENDENTS), 2008 might turn into a GOP year after all.
I unsubscribed from GOPnation last night when they forwarded a
McCain fundraising letter, then I sent them an email to tell them why.
There's still no consensus here on why it happened. I think it was the war energizing the left wing vote and the lack of any substantial conservative accomplishments suppressing the right wing vote.
McCain is the poster boy for both.
My advice to GOP loyalists is invest in liquor this November.
And, folks, there's a recession.
I understand that Mc Cain wasn’t the first choice of a lot of conservatives or military people including myself, but to allow Obama to become President would be selling our military and the country down the river. This guy Obama is a socialist who will surrender to the terrorists and cut deals with our enemies. We have all had to hold our noses and vote for the lesser of evils in our lives, but this is a no-brainer. Obama is a Marxist danger to the country.
To many, their “political philosophy” is more important than their country. They will help inflict great harm on this great country just because “their guy” didn’t win. Just pathetic!
Coward?
ROFLMAO! You think your pretty big and tough sitting behind your inert monitor. You sling insults like a dog slings fleas. I only answer logical responses, so forget asking redundant questions. You’ll get no response from me.
I fully intend to vote for Conservatives this election. I will write in my choice for POTUS.
I angers you greatly that you cannot control the way others think or believe doesnt it? But in reality, we have survived many Democrat administrations before, and emerged stronger as a result. It looks like ‘08 will be a rebuilding year. Let the Democrats have it and make complete fools of themselves. Then we come back in 2010 with a Conservative roster like we did in ‘94. The Carter years set us up for Reagan, so there is light at the end of the tunnel.
McCain would seal up the other end for decades to come.
One of us is shrieking and spluttering cartoonishly overblown insults at anyone and everyone not placidly giving bent knee to his wacky, unrequited political man-crush at the moment; the other... meh. Not so much.
You appear to be experiencing some palpable confusion, re: the comparatively simple word "tantrum." You should look it up, sometime; it doesn't actually mean "actively disagreeing with AmericaUnited's choice in sockpuppets for Vicente Fox."
Shhhhhhh. Shhhhhhhhhh.
Every time I begin to feel the slightest, most all-but-imperceptible twitches of concern over the hellish fate awaiting this nation should a red-faced and egomaniacal crank like Juan McCain ever actually find himself within spitting distance of the Oval Office: I pause to reflect upon the inate charm and grace of the man's most doggedly slavish supporters, online... and feel reassured, once more, that his freakishly spiteful and antagonistic base is -- in the final analysis -- OUR secret weapon, not his.
Stay classy, now
Nixon established EPA and OSHA, pursued d'etente with the murderers in the Kremlin, imposed wage and price controls during peacetime and nominated Harry Blackmun to the SCOTUS.
His paranoia gave the opposition all the ammunition they needed to gut the CIA and the military, abandon our allies in southeast Asia (just a bunch of Third World knuckleheads?) and eventually elect Jimmah.
Hillary and Barack aren't simply misguided or mistaken politicians. He's a socialist idealogue and she's an evil sociopath.
McCain is not my first choice, but he's an easy choice.
HEE HEE HEE!
The rabid control freaks are going to bark at that moonish post of yours now.......
I gave up being overmuch impressed by strutting, self-adoring message fora blowhards sometime during my first two, maybe three months online, back in the early '90s. Let 'em bark. ;)
Make sure you keep it to two fingers or less or you'll be unable to drive to the polls (legally), LOL!
Mrs. Vigilanteman has until March 22nd to change her registration to Democrat, but so far, I can't talk her into it.
It goes to show you what a Presidency like McCain’s will get for the GOP. It will wind up even worse than Nixon’s
Nixon kept us in the war to win it. The Lefties saw to it that we lost it, no matter how hard we tried do win it. They over rode his veto to defund the war, because the Democrats took control of both houses to do just that. McCain will be hamstrung even worse than Nixon was. The defunding will happen, whether his is in office or not.
But prepare yourself for a complete Democrat take-over. You will have no other choice. There are legions of angered Conservatives like myself in record numbers this election. You can live in denial and refuse to believe it all you like. You are also free to vote as you like, and so am I. Don’t forget it.
McCain: -$337,031
Just call him "Mr. Fiscal Conservative." ;)
Nonsense! If that had any basis in reality, "We" would be coming back now in 2008, since the RATS have making fools of themselves since 06. Do you ever try to match what actually happens in the real world with any of your theories? Try it.
The Carter years set us up for Reagan, so there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Pure absurd, fantasy that once again, has no basis in real world facts. Reagan had already positioned himself for years and years before 1980. We don't have any Reagans ready to go.
Wrong again.......
I believe there is a Republican still in office taking all the blame, which is why the RNC donations coffers look like the proceeds from “Dan’s Bake Sale”, and the Democrats look like the annual National budget.
else you would have to expose yourself as delusional.
Another fifty exactly like you -- spread out strategically across the various and sundry right-leaning boards and blogs -- and I could positively, flat-out guarantee McCain a loss in any given electoral contest, even if his wife and offspring were the only voters allowed.
Seriously: Don't. Change. A. Single. Solitary. Thing.
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