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Clinton Can't Win Popular Vote Race Without a Miracle( Mort Kondracke )
realclearpolitics.com ^ | May 01, 2008 | Mort Kondracke

Posted on 05/01/2008 6:07:17 AM PDT by kellynla

Unless the Rev. Jeremiah Wright has caused him more damage than is evident, it’s impossible to see how Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) can lose the popular vote, the delegate race or the Democratic nomination to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.).

Specifically, I’ve calculated the possible popular vote in eight of the nine remaining primaries (excluding Guam), giving Clinton the benefit of every doubt, and can’t see how she gains more than 150,000 votes on Obama ��" not enough to catch him except in the most extreme circumstances.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; clinton; democrats; election; kondracke; obama
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Clinton loses the Primary and Obama loses the General election.

Now about those borders, President McCain...

1 posted on 05/01/2008 6:07:17 AM PDT by kellynla
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To: kellynla

By miracle does Kondracke mean cheating and voter fraud?


2 posted on 05/01/2008 6:09:29 AM PDT by LottieDah (Democrats and liberals never fail to disappoint.)
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To: kellynla
>Now about those borders, President McCain...

My take is that about the only thing that he will take from Bush is:
see you at the signing

3 posted on 05/01/2008 6:09:39 AM PDT by bill1952 (I will vote for McCain if he resigns his Senate seat before this election.)
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To: kellynla

That seems like the best scenario,

though it doesn’t result in the dissolution of the dhimmirat party fast enough for my liking.


4 posted on 05/01/2008 6:12:46 AM PDT by MrB (You can't reason people out of a position that they didn't use reason to get into in the first place)
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To: kellynla

Clinton should get credit for Florida and Michigan.

I don’t accept that Obama did not campaign in those states. He should have.

It would have made no difference in Florida. He would have lost miserably. He would have lost Michigan for the same reason he lost Ohio, but he would have done better than Ohio or Penn.

He was wrong to just write those people off.


5 posted on 05/01/2008 6:13:13 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain -- Those denying the War was Necessary Do NOT Support the Troops!)
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To: kellynla

FORMER DEM LEADER ENDORSES OPERATION CHAOS


“A vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists John McCain.”
— Joe Andrew, Democratic National Committee chairman (1999-2001)

 

6 posted on 05/01/2008 6:13:27 AM PDT by counterpunch (John McCain for President - Because we need VICTORY in Iraq, not RETREAT)
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To: LottieDah

...and the miraculous vulnerability of the Super Delegates to blackmail.


7 posted on 05/01/2008 6:14:10 AM PDT by Savage Beast ("History is not just cruel. It is witty." ~Charles Krauthammer)
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To: LottieDah

...and the miraculous vulnerability of the Super Delegates to blackmail.


8 posted on 05/01/2008 6:14:12 AM PDT by Savage Beast ("History is not just cruel. It is witty." ~Charles Krauthammer)
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To: kellynla
Two things Mort might be not taking into consideration:

1. The votes in Florida and Michigan. Though the delegates there do NOT count, the "popular vote" of the people ought to be considered, since their votes count in the general election--right?

2.

9 posted on 05/01/2008 6:14:45 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

Yep. To all the so-called staunch conservatives, let’s re-elect the clintons, because 8 years of complaining about them wasn’t enough. Talk about masochism, sheesh.


10 posted on 05/01/2008 6:19:11 AM PDT by stevio (Crunchy Con - God, guns, guts, and organically grown crunchy nuts.)
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To: xzins
It would have made no difference in Florida. He would have lost miserably. He would have lost Michigan for the same reason he lost Ohio, but he would have done better than Ohio or Penn. He was wrong to just write those people off.

Is this sarcasm?

11 posted on 05/01/2008 6:20:36 AM PDT by Soliton
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To: stevio

I so want the Clintons.....GONE!!!!!!!!!!


12 posted on 05/01/2008 6:22:35 AM PDT by surrey
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To: xzins

Are you kidding? They agreed to follow party rules.


13 posted on 05/01/2008 6:22:44 AM PDT by Huck (Watching the DEMs come down the stretch is like watching the Mets come down the stretch!)
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To: Soliton; Huck

No, I’m not kidding.

Obama was wrong to blacklist two of the nation’s largest states.

Those people didn’t do anything wrong, and they DO count in the election. For what it’s worth, Hillary saw that correctly and did the right thing by the people of Michigan and Florida.

It’s not like the people don’t exist.


14 posted on 05/01/2008 6:30:03 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain -- Those denying the War was Necessary Do NOT Support the Troops!)
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To: xzins
Those people didn’t do anything wrong, and they DO count in the election. For what it’s worth, Hillary saw that correctly and did the right thing by the people of Michigan and Florida.

Uh...Hillary took the same pledge as Obama on not campaigning in Florida and Michigan. The DNC made the rules and both campaigns pledged to uphold their decision. At least Hillary did until things went awry .... !

15 posted on 05/01/2008 6:36:45 AM PDT by Jay Howard Smith (Retired(25yrNCO)Military)
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To: Jay Howard Smith

Hillary DID go to those states. Those people DID vote, and those votes DID go to Hillary.

They are hers.


16 posted on 05/01/2008 6:40:10 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain -- Those denying the War was Necessary Do NOT Support the Troops!)
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To: surrey

I want the clintons gon gut I want Obama gone too. These two are so much alike it’s scary. I would rather see Obama go down in the general election so he will not be back in 2012. If Hillary goes down in the primary the Clintons are toast.


17 posted on 05/01/2008 6:42:04 AM PDT by BobinIL
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To: xzins
Hillary DID go to those states. Those people DID vote, and those votes DID go to Hillary.

They are hers.

Neither candidate campaigned in either state. Obama just didnt bother to have his name on the ballot in Michigan while being in compliance with the DNC. Blame must be placed on the State Dem Parties for moving their primary up from its original date so they could be more visible in the early rounds. It didn't work......and.....It will NOT work....She will get neither ... !

She will lose the nomination ... !

18 posted on 05/01/2008 6:47:18 AM PDT by Jay Howard Smith (Retired(25yrNCO)Military)
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To: xzins
I've made that point many times. I think the DNC disenfranchised many people and it feels very wrong to me. And highly ironic after Al Gore's little problem in Florida in 2000. But I have two things to say:

1) The DNC sets the rules for primaries and pretty much by definition, the DNC "can't be wrong". They are the rule makers and what they say goes. FL and MI agreed to the rules, then changed their minds. Failing to seat the delegates is a fairly predictable response but the 2 states walked right into that.

2) I think Obama is incredibly damaged. He's totally unelectable, IMO. And not because the mean, racist Republicans beat him up. Nope. Our hands are clean. And based on that I think it is paramount that Hillary be denied. No MI, no FL. Pay attention to the delegate math and realize that she has no hope. I admit that she's a fighter and -- truly -- anything can happen. But I'd like to see tens of millions of Americans just fold their arms and say "Walk away Hillary. You have no chance. It's over."

If Obama is the nominee, it will be 1972 all over again and McCain will have coattails -- something I never would have expected.

19 posted on 05/01/2008 6:53:18 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy
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To: xzins
Obama was wrong to blacklist two of the nation’s largest states

You are aware that Obama had nothing to do with taking away FL and MI delegates? It was the DNC with the agreement of the Clintons and the other candidates. Further, your argument that he would have lost in FL and MI is pure supposition. Hillary had a teacher's union encouraging people to vote no on a ballot initiative and to vote for Hillary. Hillary supporters DID campaign in FL, Obama's didn't. Hillary may have won anyway, but she would have probably had a smaller margin. MI has a large black population and the largest Muslim population in America. Barack could well have beaten Hillary there.

20 posted on 05/01/2008 6:55:29 AM PDT by Soliton
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