Posted on 07/12/2008 6:19:44 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
Gee, how can that be? Just last month, the Newsweek poll showed Barack Obama with a large 15 point lead over John McCain which Newsweek announced as "Barack's Bounce." However, there is now trouble in River City as you can tell by the headline of the latest Newsweek poll story, "Glow Fading?" Yes, poor Obama has taken a big tumble in the latest Newsweek poll:
A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.
Newsweek seems to find this dramatic poll drop for Obama very puzzling (emphasis mine):
Obama's overall decline from the last NEWSWEEK Poll, published June 20, is hard to explain. Many critics questioned whether the Democrat's advantage over McCain was actually as great as the poll suggested, even though a survey taken during a similar time frame by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg showed a similarly large margin. Princeton Survey Research Associates, which conducted the poll for NEWSWEEK, says some of the discrepancy between the two most recent polls may be explained by sampling error.
...But perhaps most puzzling is how McCain could have gained traction in the past month. To date, direct engagement with Obama has not seemed to favor the GOP nominee. McCain has announced major initiatives on energy and the economy but failed to dominate the conversation on those issues. Last week's shake-up of the campaign's senior management did little to halt calls from Republicans for a major overhaul in McCain's message. Nor did it quell the lingering suspicion among Republicans that 2008 is simply destined to be a Democratic year. (Only 28 percent of voters in the new NEWSWEEK Poll approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as president.) McCain's biography still appears to be his greatest asset, with 55 percent of voters saying they have a favorable opinion of the Arizona senator, compared to 32 percent who have an unfavorable opinion. (Obama's favorable/unfavorable gap is virtually identical at 56 to 32.)
Newsweek might be puzzled by the new poll results but, ironically, their own story provides strong clues as to why Obama is now faring much more poorly in the polls:
...Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience--an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who'd slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June. Obama's reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.
More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics. This is a major concern since Obama's outsider credentials, have, in the past, played a large part in his appeal to moderate, swing voters. In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June's NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.
It’s true, too, here in Los Angeles. However — ‘the harvest is ripe’ is the flip side. People are so lost, and when you speak the Truth to them, it is the breath of Life.
Food stamps used as poker chips.
Agreed. I just don’t think Hillary’s done.
The explanation is that their polls are junk.
HA HA HA HA
I am not puzzled. They have overcooked him. He no longer appears messiah-like.
Just another Democrat like Jon Cary.
Newsweek polls are garbage, however this may be a reflection that the ‘Hope’ and ‘Change’ theme are worn out.
Sure, it’s appealing and give you the warm fuzzies at first, but after a bit, it’s just mindless and redundant rhetoric.
I just picked up a copy of Newsweek to read on the shuttle from NYC.
What a total liberal gossip rag it turned out to be. It is anything but news.
"McCain has announced major initiatives on energy and the economy but failed to dominate the conversation on those issues."The real answer is more obvious. Their last poll was in error. Obama never had a 15 point lead.
I am always amazed how pollsters can claim with a straight face their polls are +/- 3%. If you look at pollsters results and compare them with real results, a statistical analysis would be the typical poll at +/- 10 points with a 90 percent certainty. Polls have no where near the accuracy they claim.
Well, yes they are.
Or at least that ignorant, which is functionally the same thing.
But even dummies can figure out that if gasoline prices are out of control, and Congress can pretty much solve every possible social problem by raising taxes and spending more taxpayer money, but fail to see that extracting more of our own oil is the solution, well...
Even dummies can, given enough time, see cause and effect.
Unless Bush's rich buddies plan to spend their ill-gotten gains on Mars, maybe the "progressive" mantra is a lie, and reality has finally caught up with them.
Not a moment too soon.
Wow.
Well, put the fork in him, he's done.
He just lost the neurotic vote.
By my totally scientific assesment, that would account for a solid 60% of voters. Eligible or otherwise.
We all know Newsweak produces cruddy polls. But what should concern McCainiacs is the fact that he can’t get over 45% in any poll. He won’t win that way, and won’t even come close if he’s in the low 40s.
It's too bad ignorance isn't painful.
Obamunists will be sad in November.
It’s not even that.
Their first poll was way out of line with EVERY other major poll and they refused to admit it was an outlier and likely had internal problems.
Congressman Roy Blunt put together these data to highlight the differences between House Republicans and House Democrats on energy policy (June, 2008):
Coal-to-Liquid
House Republicans: 97% Supported
House Democrats: 78% Opposed
Oil Shale Exploration
House Republicans: 90% Supported
House Democrats: 86% Opposed
Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Exploration
House Republicans: 81% Supported
House Democrats: 83% Opposed
Refinery Increased Capacity
House Republicans: 97% Supported
House Democrats: 96% Opposed
The only further comment necessary is this:
Why are these self-destructive idiots still in office?
Who votes for them?
That is not a rhetorical question...
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