Global warming on Free Republic
Posted on 09/01/2008 6:43:44 AM PDT by gobucks
Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth.
The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.
The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.
According to data from the NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center, the last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.
When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins.
But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers by surprise.
In 2005, a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson attempted to publish a paper in the journal Science. The pair looked at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun. By extrapolating forward, they reached the startling result that, within 10 years, sunspots would vanish entirely. At the time, the sun was very active. Most of their peers laughed at what they considered an unsubstantiated conclusion.
The journal ultimately rejected the paper as being too controversial.
The paper's lead author, William Livingston, tells DailyTech that, while the refusal may have been justified at the time, recent data fits his theory well. He says he will be "secretly pleased" if his predictions come to pass.
But will the rest of us? In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. On was large enough to be called a "mini ice age". For a society dependent on agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases.
Meteorologist Anthony Watts, who runs a climate data auditing site, tells DailyTech the sunspot numbers are another indication the "sun's dynamo" is idling. According to Watts, the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate.
This theory was originally proposed by physicist Henrik Svensmark, who has published a number of scientific papers on the subject. Last year Svensmark's "SKY" experiment claimed to have proven that galactic cosmic rays -- which the sun's magnetic field partially shields the Earth from -- increase the formation of molecular clusters that promote cloud growth. Svensmark, who recently published a book on the theory, says the relationship is a larger factor in climate change than greenhouse gases.
Solar physicist Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Finland, tells DailyTech the correlation between cosmic rays and terrestrial cloud cover is more complex than "more rays equals more clouds". Usoskin, who notes the sun has been more active since 1940 than at any point in the past 11 centuries, says the effects are most important at certain latitudes and altitudes which control climate. He says the relationship needs more study before we can understand it fully.
Other researchers have proposed solar effects on other terrestrial processes besides cloud formation. The sunspot cycle has strong effects on irradiance in certain wavelengths such as the far ultraviolet, which affects ozone production. Natural production of isotopes such as C-14 is also tied to solar activity. The overall effects on climate are still poorly understood.
What is incontrovertible, though, is that ice ages have occurred before. And no scientist, even the most skeptical, is prepared to say it won't happen again.
Hmmmmmm, cold winter?
Now we can add another 60 or so.
ironic, huh?
better be burnin’ up the roads!
Global warming on Free Republic
Actually, it strikes me as an excellent idea.
Except that it would be far more effective tossing some in a few congress critter's offices. Not only would they call in hazmat teams, they'd arrest the "thrower" for terrorism & trying to injure people.
At the trial, the defense could pose the question of why, if these are so dangerous to a congressman, would congress mandate them for use in their constituent's homes?
This is one of the coolest Summers I can recall in SOCAL. Today the high is going to be in 70s.
True, they didn’t. So what.
The MSM ignores the impact of the interrelationship between the two sphere’s magnetic fields, and their cycles, on the earth’s climate. Why is that? Oh ... b/c Gore and IPCC have fully accounted for it....right?
Beautiful ... awesome....thanks for the links.
“Brrrrr!” < teeth chatter > — Comrade Gore
High 40s here near Seattle. Had to close the windows and turn on the heat yesterday (August). Don’t usually do that until sometime in October.
You’re welcome. If you have time to check the webcam again, click on Boulder Hill, lots of snow there right now.
Manmade Global COOLING on the way! < / sarcasm >
--this time.
Heh! Thanks for naming it. I hope that name becomes official.
Whew!
Safe ... for now ! :)
I'm working on #3. My other heat is propane, not a bargain even in the good old days. I'm hoping we'll get lucky again here on the east coast and have a mostly mild winter.
Freep-mail me to get on or off my pro-life and Catholic List:
Please ping me to note-worthy Pro-Life or Catholic threads, or other threads of interest.
Al Gore is deeply distrubed.
> Al Gore is deeply distrubed <
Whether Algore is “distrubed” or “disturbed,” I’m sure his psychiatrist has known all along.
The cold has affected my speeling. :) Gore is weird.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
