Posted on 09/08/2008 12:34:54 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Sen. John McCain appears to have gotten a nice bounce out of the Republican convention. A USA Today/Gallup poll puts him up 4 percentage points among registered voters and 10 points among likely voters.
If you don't like those numbers, there's a new CNN poll that shows the race a dead heat.
Still, from a parochial perspective, I'm still not seeing anything from the national prognosticators that moves Oregon or Washington out of the likely Democratic column. I think NBC does a good job tracking the electoral landscape, and here's how they put it, post-convention:
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, PA (38 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, VA, WI (110 votes)
Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, SD (64 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I think we can confidently take Alaska out of the Leans McCain column and put it in the Likely McCain column.
A lot of these state polls were taken before the Palin pick and before the convention. So they aren’t really reliable.
I didn’t know OR or WA were even in play for McCain? Either of those would be great pickups.
If you go to the CNN link, they say all these polls are POST convention ...
I know I’m the wary one among all the happiness, but other than WI and MI, those are all red states in the toss up category. We need those to tip red and stay red by about 5% and I’ll feel better. FWIW, WI won’t go red.....too many illegal registration loopholes to play by the rules.
WA and OR are on the Left Coast. Nothing too surprising here.
With a 10 point lead among likely voters nationally in the Gallup poll, McCain is now ahead in every one of these states (and a few others) and just pulled very slightly ahead in California. But if you go by the CNN poll, Michigan being even translates into about a six point lead nationally. Not yet enough for California, but enough for Pennsylvania and many other battleground states.
“I didn’t know OR or WA were even in play for McCain? Either of those would be great pickups.”
Forget about Washington: There is no way McCain can carry Washington. He does have at least a mathematical possibility of carrying Oregon, but I would not put his chances for doing at more than 10%.
Obama should definitely still be favored there, but it isn't completely out of reach for McCain.
I CNN/Time are poll spammers. These clowns do not show how they conduct or collect data in their polls. They are BSing you.
I live in the Twin Cities. McCain has been running ads on local TV stations since last week. I thought at first that it was just for the purposes of running out the flag during the RNC but they have continued after the end of the convention.
These stations reach pretty far into western Wisconsin. Lately I’ve been thinking that the McCain campaign sees potential in Minnesota too.
I haven't seen anything to suggest that they are.
“Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, VA, WI (110 votes)”
Baloney!
CO - Mac leads (realclear, lose the 2 1/2 week old Suffolk outlier)
FL - Mac leads (realclear)
NV - Mac leads (realclear)
OH - Mac leads (realclear)
VA - Mac leads (realclear)
What did he do with all that cash he raised? I hope he didn't go and blow it all on those Styrofoam columns.
No, NH went Dem last time. And you can throw PA and IA into the mix.
That’s interesting, they have it 228 Fauxbama 200 McCain not counting what they call TOSS UPS.
However, I do note see FLA, VA or OH toss ups, those are going to go McCain, no doubt... calling them toss up is wishful thinking IMHO. and that’s 60 votes right there, and I see no way Fauxbama gets all of MI, WI and PA.
I know the polls show Fauxbama up 6 or 7 in PA, but I just don’t see it happening on the ground here.
No, NH went Dem last time. And you can throw PA and IA into the mix.
I’m with you, OH, FLA and VA are not toss ups, that’s wishful thinking thta they will go FAUXBAMA. I know some of the polls show it close, but no way those are flipping this cycle.
Any state where Fauxbama is 5.0 or less in his lead is trouble for him.
The real Battleground states are PA, WI and MI, IMHO. MI he is in real trouble, PA I don’t see him winning, I know the polls still show Fauxbama up, but I don’t see him taking the state. I may eat crow on that, but I just don’t see Fauxbama winning this state, what I’m seeing on the ground here is not anything that shows Fauxbama is connecting.
McCain is in very good shape. Anything can happen over the next couple of months, but so far the Palin choice has completely changed the dynamics of the race in our favor.
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